Turkey General Elections, 2007

[minionofmidas]

Elections to be held on 22nd July.

Main players:

AKP (Justice & Development Party), soft-Islamist yet rather pro-European. Won big in 2002. Expected to win again.

CHP (Republican People's Party), Kemal Atatürk's old party. Secular. Sort of center-left economically (not much different than the AKP there, I'd say) Pro-American but not very Pro-European.

DP (Democratic Party), secular, conservative. Recent merger of ANAP (Motherland Party) and DYP (Right Way Party) - the new name is an old name, being that of the CHP's great rival of the 40s and 50s.

MHP (Nationalist Movement Party), conservative to downright fascist, not quite as secular as CHP and DP. Well-connected to the army.

DTP (Democratic Society Party), latest guise of what was known as DEHAP last time, and as HADEP the two times before. Kurdish Nationalists. Won't win 10% of the vote, but will once again top the poll in numerous southeastern provinces.

Turkey uses a system wherein each province serves as a constituency, except the three largest provinces which are split into 2 (Ankara, Izmir) or 3 (Istanbul). Seats are distributed by D'Hondt within provinces - but only to parties that crossed a national 10% threshold, and independents.

2002 election results
AKP 31.4% 361 seats
CHP 22.3% 179 seats
DYP 9.6%
MHP 8.3%
GP 7.3% "Youth Party" Another secular conservative party; mushroom growth based on founder Cem Uzan's millions, seems to have imploded since
DEHAP 6.2%
ANAP 5.1%
SP 2.5% "Felicity Party" the more hardline, and anti-European, wing of the Islamists.
DSP 1.2% "Democratic Left Party", the party of Bülent Ecevit. Completely imploded in 2002, and has been slow to rebuild since. Secular, Social Democratic.
YTP 1.2% "New Turkey Party", splinter off the DSP before the 2002 elections. Very secularist, had a very pro-European programme in '02, but has since merged into the CHP.
BBP 1.0% "Grand Movement Party". More Islamist-inclined splinter off the MHP. As ugly as it gets in Turkish politics, I suppose...
seven other parties 2.9%
independents 1.0% but 10 seats - because only 53% of the vote went to parties represented in parliament, the threshold for indies was de facto pretty low, especially in Kurdistan.

1999 result:
DSP 22.2 136
MHP 18.0 129 (these two parties formed the government before the election, weird as it may sound, and were riding high on a wave of popularity just at the time of election, thanks in part to the capture of Abdullah Öcalan, and a short lived economic boom)
FP 15.4 111 ("Virtue Party", predecessor of both AKP and SP. Officially banned, on rather flimsy grounds, in 2001, but its MPs continued to sit in parliament and everything.)
ANAP 13.2 86
DYP 12.0 85
3 indies elected
CHP 8.7
HADEP 4.8
BBP 1.5

1995 results:
RP 21.4 158 ("Welfare Party". Same as Virtue, in 1998.)
ANAP 19.6 132
DYP 19.2 135
DSP 14.6 76
CHP 10.7 49
MHP 8.2
HADEP 4.2

Ooh yeah, I calculated these a long time ago:

2002 results with no threshold (but otherwise same election law)
AKP 263, CHP 117, DEHAP 48 (profiting from its concentration in the SE), DYP 45, MHP 33, GP 27, ANAP 8, SP 4, BBP 1, i 4.

[minionofmidas]

Can't make a map myself, but:

Imagine these in Atlas shading...


AKP>50 Düzce, Erzurum, Kahramanmaras, Kayseri, Konya, Malatya, Yozgat
AKP>40 Adiyaman, Afyon, Aksaray, Ankara 2, Bolu, Bursa, Cankiri, Corum, Elazig, Erzincan, Gaziantep, Giresun, Gümüshane, Isparta, Karabük, Kirikkale, Kocaeli, Kütahya, Nevsehir, Nigde, Ordu, Rize, Sakarya, Samsun, Sivas, Tokat, Trabzon
AKP>30 Amasya, Ankara 1, Balikesire, Bingöl, Istanbul 1-3, Karaman, Kastamonu, Kilis, Kirsehir, Manisa, Osmaniye, Sinop, Yalova, Zonguldak
AKP>20 Adana, Bartin, Bilecik, Burdur, Canakkale, Denizli, Eskisehir, Hatay, Sanliurfa

CHP>30 Antalya, Kirklareli
CHP>20 Ardahan, Artvin, Aydin, Edirne, Izmir 1&2, Mersin, Mugla, Tekirdag, Usak

DEHAP>50 Diyarbakir, Hakkari
DEHAP>40 Batman, Sirnak, Van
DEHAP>30 Agri, Igdir, Mardin, Mus, Siirt, Tunceli
DEHAP>20 Bitlis
DEHAP>10 Kars

i>20 Bayburt

Bigger map

[minionofmidas]

Or for those more interested in winning party's lead:
AKP>40 Düzce, Erzurum, Kahramanmaras, Kayseri, Konya, Malatya
AKP>30 Aksaray, Bolu, Cankiri, Giresun, Karabük, Kirikkale, Kütahya, Samsun, Yozgat
AKP>25 Adiyaman, Afyon, Bursa, Corum, Gümüshane, Nevsehir, Ordu, Sivas, Trabzon
AKP>20 Elazig, Gaziantep, Isparta, Karaman, Kilis, Kocaeli, Nigde, Ordu, Tokat
AKP>15 Amasya, Ankara 2, Istanbul 2, Istanbul 3, Rize, Sakarya, Yalova
AKP>10 Balikesir, Bartin, Erzincan, Kastamonu, Kirsehir, Manisa, Sinop
AKP>5 Adana, Bingöl, Burdur, Eskisehir, Istanbul 1, Zonguldak
AKP>2 Bilecik, Canakkale, Denizli, Hatay, Sanliurfa
AKP>1 Osmaniye
AKP<1 Ankara 1

CHP>15 Kirklareli
CHP>10 Edirne, Izmir 1&2, Tekirdag
CHP>5 Antalya, Mersin, Mugla
CHP>2 Ardahan, Artvin, Usak
CHP<1 Aydin

DEHAP>40 Diyarbakir
DEHAP>30 Sirnak
DEHAP>25 Batman, Hakkari
DEHAP>20 Mardin, Mus
DEHAP>15 Agri, Igdir, Van
DEHAP>10 Bitlis, Siirt
DEHAP>5 Tunceli
DEHAP>2 Kars

i>1 Bayburt

[minionofmidas]

And for an unshaded second place map...

CHP Adana, Adiyaman, Amasya, Ankara 1&2, Balikesir, Bursa, Canakkale, Corum, Denizli, Erzincan, Eskisehir, Gaziantep, Giresun, Hatay, Igdir, Istanbul 1-3, Kahramanmaras, Karaman, Kirsehir, Kocaeli, Malatya, Nevsehir, Nigde, Ordu, Samsun, Sinop, Sivas, Tokat, Trabzon, Tunceli, Yalova, Zonguldak

AKP Agri, Antalya, Artvin, Batman, Bayburt, Bitlis, Diyarbakir, Izmir 2, Kars, Mardin, Mus, Siirt, Sirnak, Tekirdag, Usak, Van

DYP Ardahan, Aydin, Bartin, Bilecik, Bolu, Burdur, Cankiri, Düzce, Isparta, Karabük, Kastamonu, Kilis, Kirklareli, Kütahya, Manisa, Mugla

MHP Afyon, Aksaray, Erzurum, Gümüshane, Kayseri, Kirikkale, Konya, Mersin, Osmaniye, Yozgat

GP Edirne, Izmir 1, Sakarya

DEHAP Bingöl, Sanliurfa

ANAP Rize

i Elazig, Hakkari

(independent vote is total for all independents btw, not the independents who actually won a seat respectively in Bayburt, Elazig, and Hakkari. Although I don't know whether there was more than one indy in these provinces. The "independent" figure I have for Kars, though, would have been good for a seat if it was the single highest polling independent, and thence must be the sum total of several independents, which is why I assume the same for all the other "independent" figures I have.)

[minionofmidas]

Legend:
Province / no. of seats / 1999 seat distribution
if changed from 99: no. of seats in 2002 / 2002 seat distribution without a threshold (actual seat distribution)

Parties winning the same no. of seats are ordered by national vote totals in the 99 results, by provincial vote total in the 2002 results.

Adana 14   DSP 5, MHP 5, ANAP 2, FP 1, DYP 1
AKP 5 (8), CHP 3 (6), DYP 2, MHP 2, DEHAP 1, GP 1   
Adiyaman 6   FP 4, ANAP 1, DYP 1   
5   AKP 3 (4), CHP 1 (1), DEHAP 1
Afyon      7   MHP 3, DSP 1, FP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
AKP 4 (6), MHP 1, DYP 1, CHP 1 (1)
Agri      4   MHP 1, FP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
5   DEHAP 3, AKP 1 (3), CHP 1 (2)
Aksaray      4   MHP 2, FP 1, DYP 1
AKP 4 (4)
Amasya      4   MHP 2, DSP 1, FP 1
3   AKP 2 (2), CHP 1 (1)
Ankara 1   14   DSP 6, MHP 3, FP 2, ANAP 2, DYP 1
      15   AKP 6 (8), CHP 6 (7), MHP 1, GP 1, DYP 1
Ankara 2   14   MHP 4, FP 4, DSP 3, DYP 2, ANAP 1
         AKP 8 (9), CHP 4 (5), MHP 1, GP 1
Antalya      12   DSP 3, MHP 3, DYP 3, ANAP 2, FP 1
13   CHP 5 (8), AKP 3 (5), DYP 2, MHP 1, ANAP 1, GP 1
Ardahan      2   DSP 1, DYP 1
CHP 1 (1), DYP 1, AKP 0 (1)
Artvin      2   DSP 1, DYP 1
CHP 1 (1), AKP 1 (1)
Aydin      8   DSP 3, MHP 2, ANAP 2, DYP 1
CHP 2 (4), DYP 2, AKP 2 (4), MHP 1, GP 1
Balikesir      9   DSP 3, MHP 2, DYP 2, FP 1, ANAP 1   
8   AKP 4 (5), CHP 2 (3), DYP 1, GP 1   
Bartin      2   DSP 1, ANAP 1
AKP 2      
Batman      4   FP 2, ANAP 1, DYP 1
DEHAP 3, AKP 1 (3), CHP 0 (1)
Bayburt      2   MHP 1, FP 1
i 1 (1), AKP 1 (1)
Bilecik      2   DSP 1, MHP 1
         AKP 1 (1), DYP 1, CHP 0 (1)
Bingöl      3   FP 1, DYP 1, i 1
AKP 2 (3), DEHAP 1   
Bitlis      4   MHP 1, FP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
         DEHAP 2, AKP 1 (3), unabh. 1 (1)
Bolu      5   DSP 1, MHP 1, FP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
3   AKP 3 (3)
Burdur      3   DSP 1, MHP 1, DYP 1
         AKP 1 (2), DYP 1, CHP 1 (!)
Bursa      16   DSP 6, MHP 3, ANAP 3, FP 2, DYP 2
AKP 8 (12), CHP 3 (4), DYP 2, GP 1, MHP 1, ANAP 1
Canakkale   4   DSP 1, MHP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
         AKP 2 (2), CHP 1 (2), DYP 1
Cankiri      3   MHP 2, FP 1
AKP 3 (3)
Corum      5   MHP 3, AKP 1, DYP 1
AKP 4 (4), CHP 1 (1)
Denizli      7   DSP, MHP, DYP 2, ANAP 1
AKP 2 (4), CHP 2 (3), DYP 1, GP 1, MHP 1
Diyarbakir   11   FP 4, ANAP 3, DYP 3, DSP 1
10   DEHAP 7, AKP 2 (8), DYP 1, CHP 0 (2)
Düzce      0   (part of Bolu)
3   AKP 3 (3)
Edirne      4   DSP 3, ANAP 1
         CHP 2 (3), GP 1, DYP 1, AKP 0 (1)
Elazig      5   FP 2, MHP 1, DYP 1, i 1
         AKP 4 (4), i 1 (1)
Erzincan      3   MHP 1, FP 1, DYP 1
AKP 2 (2), CHP 1 (1)
Erzurum      8   MHP 3, FP 3, DYP 2
7   AKP 6 (7), MHP 1   
Eskisehir   6   DSP 3, MHP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
AKP 2 (3), CHP 2 (3), DYP 1, GP 1   
Gaziantep   9   MHP 3, DSP 2, FP 2, ANAP 1, DYP 1
10   AKP 5 (7), CHP 2 (3), DEHAP 1, GP 1, MHP 1
Giresun      5   DSP 1, MHP 1, FP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
AKP 4 (4), CHP 1 (1)   
Gümüshane   2   MHP 1, FP 1
AKP 2 (2)   
Hakkari      3   FP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
DEHAP 2, unabh. 1 (1), CHP 0 (1), AKP 0 (1)
Hatay      10   MHP 3, DSP 2, FP 2, ANAP 2, DYP 1
AKP 4 (5), CHP 4 (5), MHP 1, DYP 1   
Igdir      2   FP 2
DEHAP 2, CHP 0 (1), i 0 (1)
Isparta      4   MHP 2, ANAP 1, DYP 1
      5   AKP 3 (4), DYP 1, CHP 1 (1)
Istanbul 1   24   DSP 10, FP 5, ANAP 5, MHP 3, DYP 1
AKP 11 (14), CHP 8 (10), GP 1, DEHAP 1, ANAP 1, MHP 1, SP 1
Istanbul 2   21   DSP 8, FP 6, ANAP 4, MHP 2, DYP 1
AKP 9 (13), CHP 5 (8), GP 2, MHP 1, DEHAP 1, SP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
Istanbul 3   24   DSP 9, FP 5, ANAP 5, MHP 3, DYP 2
      25   AKP 11 (16), CHP 6 (9), GP 2, DEHAP 2, MHP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1, SP 1
Izmir 1      12   DSP 7, ANAP 3, MHP 1, DYP 1
CHP 4 (8), GP 3, AKP 2 (4), MHP 1, DYP 1, DEHAP 1
Izmir 2      12   DSP 7, MHP 2, ANAP 2, DYP 1
CHP 5 (8), AKP 2 (4), GP 2, DYP 2, MHP 1
Kahramanmaras   9   MHP 3, FP 3, DYP 2, ANAP 1
8   AKP 6 (7), CHP 1 (1), DYP 1
Karabük      3   DSP 1, MHP 1, DYP 1
AKP 3 (3)
Karaman   3   DSP 1, MHP 1, FP 1
AKP 2 (2), CHP 1 (1)
Kars      3   DSP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
         DEHAP 1, AKP 1 (2), CHP 1 (!)
Kastamonu   4   DSP 1, MHP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
         AKP 2 (3), DYP 1, MHP 1, CHP 0 (1)
Kayseri      8   MHP 4, FP 2, DSP 1, DYP 1
         AKP 6 (7), MHP 1, CHP 1 (1)
Kilis      2   DSP 1, DYP 1
         AKP 2 (2)
Kirikkale   4   MHP 2, FP 1, ANAP 1
         AKP 3 (3), MHP 1, CHP 0 (1)
Kirklareli   3   DSP 2, ANAP 1
CHP 2 (2), DYP 1, AKP 0 (1)
Kirsehir      3   MHP 2, DSP 1
         AKP 1 (2), CHP 1 (1), MHP 1
Kocaeli      10   DSP 3, FP 3, MHP 2, ANAP 1, DYP 1
9   AKP 6 (6), CHP 2 (3), GP 1
Konya      16   FP 6, MHP 5, DSP 2, DYP 2, ANAP 1
AKP 11 (14), MHP 2, CHP 1 (2), DYP 1, SP 1
Kütahya      6   MHP 2, DYP 2, DSP 1, FP 1
AKP 5 (6), DYP 1
Malatya      7   MHP 3, FP 3, ANAP 1
AKP 5 (5), CHP 2 (2)
Manisa      10   DSP 3, MHP 3, DYP 2, FP 1, ANAP 1
AKP 4 (6), DYP 2, CHP 2 (4), GP 1, MHP 1
Mardin      6   ANAP 2, DYP 2, DSP 1, FP 1
         DEHAP 4, AKP 1 (3), CHP 1 (2), i 0 (1)
Mersin      12   MHP 6, DSP 4, ANAP 1, DYP 1
CHP 4 (7), MHP 2, AKP 2 (5), DEHAP 1, DYP 1, GP 1, ANAP 1
Mugla      6   DSP 3, MHP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
CHP 2 (4), DYP 2, AKP 1 (2), MHP 1
Mus      4   DSP 1, FP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
DEHAP 3, AKP 1 (2), CHP 0 (1), i 0 (1)
Nevsehir   3   MHP 2, AKP 1
AKP 3 (3)
Nigde      3   DSP 1, MHP 1, DYP 1
AKP 2 (2), CHP 1 (1)      
Ordu      7   DSP 2, ANAP 2, MHP 1, FP 1, DYP 1
AKP 5 (5), CHP 1 (2), DYP 1
Osmaniye   4   MHP 3, DYP 1
AKP 2 (3), MHP 2, CHP 0 (1)
Rize      3   ANAP 2, FP 1
AKP 2 (3), ANAP 1
Sakarya      6   FP 2, DSP 1, MHP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
         AKP 4 (6), GP 2
Samsun      10   DSP 3, MHP 2, FP 2, DYP 2, ANAP 1
9   AKP 6 (7), CHP 2 (2), DYP 1
Sanliurfa   11   FP 4, DYP 4, ANAP 2, MHP 1
         AKP 3 (7), DEHAP 3, DYP 2, ANAP 1, CHP 1 (3), MHP 1, i 0 (1)
Siirt      3   DYP 2, ANAP 1
DEHAP 2, AKP 1 (1), i 0 (1), CHP 0 (1)
Sinop      3   DSP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
         AKP 2 (2), CHP 1 (1)
Sivas      6   FP 3, MHP 2, DYP 1
         AKP 4 (5), CHP 1 (1), BBP 1
Sirnak      3   FP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1
DEHAP 3, AKP 0 (2), i 0 (1)
Tekirdag   5   DSP 3, ANAP 1, DYP 1
CHP 2 (3), AKP 1 (2), GP 1, DYP 1
Tokat      6   MHP 3, FP 2, DYP 1
7   AKP 4 (5), CHP 2 (2), MHP 1
Trabzon      7   MHP 2, AKP 2, DSP 1, ANAP 1, DYP 1   
8   AKP 5 (6), CHP 1 (2), DYP 1, MHP 1
Tunceli      2   DYP 1, i 1
DEHAP 1, CHP 1 (2)
Usak      3   DSP 2, MHP 1
         CHP 2 (2), AKP 1 (1)
Van      7   AKP 3, ANAP 2, MHP 1, DYP 1
         DEHAP 4, AKP 3 (6), CHP 0 (1)
Yalova      2   DSP 1, ANAP 1
AKP 1 (1), CHP 1 (1)
Yozgat      6   MHP 3, FP 2, ANAP 1
         AKP 4 (5), MHP 1, CHP 1 (1)
Zonguldak   6   AKP 4, MHP 1, ANAP 1
5   AKP 2 (3), CHP 2 (2), DYP 1

[minionofmidas]

I'd've used Green for DEHAP.

[minionofmidas]

Things are getting interesting. The CHP (the only other party to win seats last time) and DSP (which had the most seats in 1999 but collapsed in 2002) will unite for the election in opposition to the AKP. Together, the most recent poll put them at 22%, to 29% for the AKP. That poll also said that the DYP, MHP and GP would pass the 10% threshold with 12%, 12% and 10%, respectively.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6666003.stm

GP!? Are you sure? Everything else sounds about right to me...

[minionofmidas]

Election tomorrow.

AKP way ahead (and voteshare up) in all polls, although depending on who else gets in they *could* lose their majority - it's not really expected though. If all goes perfectly, they could win that elusive two-thirds majority of seats.
CHP will be in again, but its voteshare will be down.
MHP will probably return to parliament.
Both DP and GP are polling under 10 but have outside chances of getting in.
And of course, anywhere from 20-35 indies are expected to be elected, most of them de facto Kurdish Nationalists.

[minionofmidas]

Yuck.

Oh yeah, some inside estimate/spin/whatever you want to call it from an Armenian community activist, on the AKP's share of the Christian vote:
2002 5%
2007 67%.

[minionofmidas]

Yuck.

Oh yeah, some inside estimate/spin/whatever you want to call it from an Armenian community activist, on the AKP's share of the Christian vote:
2002 5%
2007 67%.

That high? Interesting.

He may of course be lying.

[minionofmidas]

Another regional. Diyarbakir (70.53% reporting):

BGMZ 47.56% (+46.21%)
AKP 41.78% (+25.82%)

Nobody else gets even 5%

For once, it seems, most Kurdish votes will not be wasted

Wouldn't this mean a lot of Kurdish votes (those for the BGMZ at least) would be wasted?  Although perhaps not a majority in Diyarbakir, if over 77.1% of the remaining 10.66% of the vote (or an additional 8.22% of the vote) went to the CHP, MHP or successful independent candidates.  It's interesting that fewer Kurdish votes have been wasted due to poorer performance of formal Kurdish parties.

Independents are exempt from the 10% threshold. Which is why the Kurdish nationalists ran no slates this time, but instead fielded their candidates as independents.

Of course, how many of those indies get in in seats where they should really win several depends on vote management - as each one of their candidates will be treated as his own party.

[minionofmidas]

With 99.01% reporting

AKP 46.71 - ca.340 seats
CHP 20.90 - ca.113 seats (contrary to expectations, their vote share actually notched up a tad)
MHP 14.32 - ca.70 seats
DP 5.37
GP 3.03
SP 2.33
inds 5.15 - ca.27 seats
others 2.19

Source: Hürriyet

[minionofmidas]

Precincts to report (at 99.84)
25 in Izmir 1
52 in Izmir 2
11 in Adana
1 in Agri
3 in Antalya
1 in Bolu
23 in Diyarbakir
56 in Elazig
8 in Eskisehir
10 in Hakkari
30 in Hatay
6 in Mersin
2 in Mus
14 in Tekirdag
1 in Tokat

All but at most two or three of the elected indies are DTP.

[minionofmidas]

BTW, looks like 84.73% of voters in Diyarbakir voted for lists and/or candidates that will be represented in the Parliament. When was the last that happened?

AKP  41,22% 6 seats
IND1 12.6% 1 seat
IND2  11.79% 1 seat
IND3 9.67% 1 seat
IND4 9,45% 1 seat

None of the other independents gets even 1.5%. Impressive vote management!

None of the other independents listed separately. "Diger Bagimsizlar" is clearly "diverse independents".

Updated result: 99.88% reporting
AKP 46.45%
CHP 20.79%
MHP 14.42%
DP 5.37%
GP 3.02%
SP 2.32%
i 5.20%
remainder 2.43% (not sure why this is went up so)

25 in Izmir 1
31 in Izmir 2
10 in Adana
1 in Agri
1 in Bolu
56 in Elazig
10 in Hakkari
30 in Hatay
2 in Mus
14 in Tekirdag
1 in Tokat

[minionofmidas]

BTW, looks like 84.73% of voters in Diyarbakir voted for lists and/or candidates that will be represented in the Parliament. When was the last that happened?

AKP  41,22% 6 seats
IND1 12.6% 1 seat
IND2  11.79% 1 seat
IND3 9.67% 1 seat
IND4 9,45% 1 seat

None of the other independents gets even 1.5%. Impressive vote management!

There is such a thing as too impressive vote management:

Agri
1.  AKP   
  % 63,29   103.318  5 seats
2.  B: M.KUTLAY   
  % 12,46   20.341  0 seats
3.  B: H.YILMAZ   
  % 10,42   17.017  0 seats

324 votes more for Kutlay and less for Yilmaz would have been enough to take a seat.

 

[minionofmidas]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

not true. You miss independent gentlemen Seydaoglu (1.14%), Bilgin (0.64%) and 3 more hopelessnessfulls. The "diverse independents" combined get more than anyone of these, though.

Actually, my error lay somewhere else - I misread you as stating "all the other indies together get less than 1.5%", and assumed you'd overlooked the "diverse independents" listing... my bad.

Still waiting for
25 Izmir 1
26 Izmir 2
8 Adana
1 Bolu
56 Elazig
6 Hakkari
2 Mus
1 Tokat

Yeah, the Hatay precincts came in all in one batch (which ironically didn't change the national vote shares - must have been fairly close to the national average), which makes me hopeful for the same thing to happen in Izmir 1 and Elazig soon.

BTW, looks like 84.73% of voters in Diyarbakir voted for lists and/or candidates that will be represented in the Parliament. When was the last that happened?

AKP  41,22% 6 seats
IND1 12.6% 1 seat
IND2  11.79% 1 seat
IND3 9.67% 1 seat
IND4 9,45% 1 seat

None of the other independents gets even 1.5%. Impressive vote management!

There is such a thing as too impressive vote management:

Agri
1.  AKP   
  % 63,29   103.318  5 seats
2.  B: M.KUTLAY   
  % 12,46   20.341  0 seats
3.  B: H.YILMAZ   
  % 10,42   17.017  0 seats

324 votes more for Kutlay and less for Yilmaz would have been enough to take a seat.

Well, when you try a quirk for the first time, you are bound to be using the simplest strategy, and that they did to perfection.  Next time they should fine tune it a bit. Still, I am mightily impressed. How did they do it? Random how-to-vote cards?

In the villages, they probably just divvied up the province into territories to canvass, going by the voter rolls. Even in the diaspora cities, I guess most of the Kurdish nationalist votes come from ethnic Kurdish slums rather than from people living dispersed across the general population (indeed, I think the Kurdish vote in the urban centers is down on last time - probably because the latter group fell flat as a vote ressource).

EDIT: Hakkari and one Mus precinct in.

Hakkari result:
1.  AKP   
  % 31,98   30.110  1
2.  B: H.İKE   
  % 18,01   16.959  1
3.  B: H.GEYLANİ   
  % 16,31   15.354  1
4.  B: S.SUVAĞCİ   
  % 16,27   15.320  0
5.  B: E.CANAN   
  % 6,69   6.299  0

Probably safe to assume that, while Canan likely is Kurdish as well (few non-Kurds here near the corner with Iraq and Iran), he was not a DTP-endorsed candidate.

[minionofmidas]

The second Izmir district came in. The last seat there very close, and CHP did keep its advantage: 6 CHP, 4 AKP and 2 MHP.

Got slightly less close as a result of those precincts.

Still waiting for 25 Izmir 1
8 Adana
56 Elazig
1 Tokat, but unless those Elazig precincts are extremely weird, seat distribution won't change, so

AKP 341
CHP 112
MHP 70
i 27
it is.

[minionofmidas]

AKP 31.4% 361 seats
CHP 22.3% 179 seats
[i 10 seats]
(...)
2002 results with no threshold (but otherwise same election law)
AKP 263, CHP 117, DEHAP 48 (profiting from its concentration in the SE), DYP 45, MHP 33, GP 27, ANAP 8, SP 4, BBP 1, i 4.

this time around, little change:
AKP -6
CHP -5
MHP -2
DP 8 seats, GP 4 seats, SP 1 seat

[minionofmidas]

Well, in Adana the difference between CHP and MHP is only 600 votes - and that determines a seat. 8 precincts are unlikely to change that, but, who knows?

My bad; I just focussed on MHP vs indy.

[minionofmidas]

Elazig in. I'm calling it a night.

[minionofmidas]

SO who says Turkey will ever be in the EU? I say they have a 10% chance.

That depends on events here in the EU.

[minionofmidas]

Comparing results province by province... one thing I note is the distribution of the CHP vote change. They gained quite a bit back in the west; the further east you get, the smaller the gains get until, when you get to Kurdistan proper, they're losing votes across the board.

3 of the indies would appear non-DTP: One of the two in Tunceli (probably incumbent indie reelected), and the ones in Sivas and Rize (which, oddly enough, were the BBP's and ANAP's strongholds last time around... and yes, these vote bases seem to be what the indy wins were built upon).

[minionofmidas]

BTW, minimal disagreements about websites about the seat distribution persist. Seems like the final seat is in dispute between CHP (111 or 112) and Independent (27 or 28). Anyone know which district is too close to  call (or even clear computation based on given results)?

Probably Adana, where the MHP overtook the CHP, so it's either 6 AKP - 4 MHP - 3 CHP - 1 Kurd or 6 AKP - 4 MHP - 4 CHP (but presumably the latter), rather than the 6 AKP - 4 CHP - 3 MHP - 1 Kurd that was reported last night.
The results slightly changed at Urfa to make it 9 AKP - 2 Kurds rather than 10 - 1, that's the 28th indy.

There's another oddity I noticed on the Hürriyet site - they changed the Manisa seat distribution to 5 AKP - 3 MHP - 2 CHP from 6-2-2, but, although it's very close, the votes give 6-2-2. What's more, the national seats figure adds up if you use 6-2-2 - probably just an error.


Confirmation re non DTP indies: The second-polling independent in Tunceli is the incumbent. Who was a DYP MP until 2002. The indy in Rize is none other than longterm ANAP head Mesut Yilmaz. The indy in Sivas is none other than BBP head Muhsin Yazicioglu. Seems like the Kurds aren't the only ones able to use loopholes.

[minionofmidas]

Although elected thanks to Kurdish votes, Ufuk Uras (i - Istanbul 1) is actually the chair of the ÖDP, just about the only non-banned one of Turkey's divers Trot outfits. Funny thing is that unlike the BBP and ANAP, the ÖDP actually ran as a party in these elections... though not in Istanbul.
13 representatives elected on CHP lists are actually members of the DSP.