Ireland Election 2007

[minionofmidas]

I can't find the f#!?ing national turnout anywhere.

[minionofmidas]

I can't find the f#!?ing national turnout anywhere.

67.5%

Yeah, I'd found it as well by now.

This election has completely destroyed the PDs. Losing six of their 8 TDs has to hurt, but the PDs also have the problem of no longer having popular incumbents. I really can't see the PDs returning in most of the constituencies they lost;

Yeah, they really were routed. Though it's not quite impossible that they could keep going. They still have a natural constituency (small though it is) - particularly in the leafier areas south of the Liffey in Dublin.

And in Galway.
Although looking at the count there, the minor PD candidates' votes transferred very badly to the incumbent one, and I wouldn't quite rule out, at this point, that Mary Harney will be the sole survivor.

I still think he should make it though.

I agree he should, I was just saying he might not.

[minionofmidas]

Guesstimates on the constituencies still out...

Tipperary recount: no change
Dublin N: (1 FF already elected), 1 Green, 1 FG, another FF
Dublin NE: most likely - Lab, FF, FG. Also possible - Lab, 2 FF
Dublin SC: (2 FF already elected) most likely - Lab, FG, SF. Also possible 2 Lab, FG*
Galway: (1 FF already elected) most likely - Lab, another FF, FG, PD. Also possible Lab, 2 more FF, FG. Or even (but that's QUITE unlikely) Lab, another FF, 2 FG.
Laois - Offaly: (1 FF already elected) 2 FF, 2 FG, but no idea which candidates would win. Actually, this early in the count (what's holding them up?) all sorts of strange results cannot be *quite* ruled out yet, such as a PD hold.

*why did FF run only two candidates here? Looks like an error of judgement to me.

[minionofmidas]

No Socialists?

No. No Socialist Worker either. There's Labour o/c, but apart from that...

[minionofmidas]

Not inconceivable that if the positions are reversed that Ryan could sneak in.

Which of course is why they bother with asking for a recount at all.

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Recheck underway, some 48 votes have been unaccounted for somewhere.[/quote]So the Lab/FG/FF result on Aertel now is not yet final, or what?

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Higgins has just been elected on the back of Green transfers.
Now v. likely it will be 2 FF and 1 each for Lab, FG and PD.[/quote]Yeah. My QUITE unlikely case is already impossible now.

[minionofmidas]

So the "big gains" predicted for the Greens and Sinn Fein did'nt quite happen heh?

Smallish vote gains in the wrong places. Maybe just attributable to running everywhere (Greens) / nearly everywhere (SF) - not sure how many candidates they had last time. Also some bad luck results for SF.

[minionofmidas]

Which Celtic nation had a recent similar election to this? Answer: Scotland

What seems to have happened is that Fine Gael has mopped up all the support from the smaller opposition parties (just like the SNP mopped up all the votes it lost to the Greens and the SSP in 2003).

As for possible coalitions, looking at the seats won, the most likely to me is Fianna Fail (77) + Greens (6) + Progressive Democrats (2) = 85 (majority of 4), but given that the Progessive Democrats were hammered, it's just as likely that they may ask the Independents (5) to come on board as well.

The independents aren't a bloc. They're more like, two finndependents (or should that be "faildependents"?), a gaeldependent ("finedependent"?) and two who're most close to being labdependents, but seem to be the most independent of the bunch.

FF (77) + PDs (2) + finndependents (2) + bought-off true independents (2) with a speaker from the opposition is technically enough, but I highly doubt Ahern *really* thinks he can govern on that for five years. He's just using that option for leverage.

[minionofmidas]

I've edited the earlier comments in and added the missing seats...

Update on results vs Jas' predictions. Now in Jas' original order.

Cavan-Monaghan
3 FF because of antidemocratic speakership rules, 1 SF, 1 FG
False. Seems like being from Cavan was not enough for Joe O'Reilly (FG). FF squeaked in instead.
This would have gone 2-2-1 if all five seats had been up for election, beyond a sliver of a doubt.

Donegal NE
2 FF, 1 FG.
FG much stronger than Jas expected here, with SF missing out on a gain. Also had the wrong FFer losing out. FF infighting didn't leave this one all that far off a perfect storm single-FF-elected result. Of course this was ultra-hard to predict.
You really, really should let 6-seat counties be a single seat. 3-seaters distort results too much.

Donegal SW
2 FF, 1 FG.
Again, close call between FG and SF with a weird outside possibility of 1-1-1. Again, SF lose out where Jas predicted FG to do so.

Galway E
2 FG, 2 FF.
Perfect prediction, though McHugh got slaughtered.

Galway W
2 FF, 1 Labour, 1 FG, 1 PD
Predicted a Green gain from PDs, otherwise correct.

Mayo
3 FG, 1 FF, 1 i
Correct on party headlines, wrong on which FG candidate lost out (but correct on which two were in contention for that).

Roscommon - Leitrim S
2 FG, 1 FF
False. Feighan (FG) did better than Jas expected here (and better than his running mate), and being from Leitrim was not enough for Ellis (FF).

Sligo - Leitrim N
2 FF, 1 FG
Jas *said* this one was hard (although he seems to have thought 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF more likely than 2 FF, 1 FG). Although as it turns out Scanlon, not Devins, was the safe FF candidate. Devins narrowly beat Comiskey (FG) whom Jas put ahead.

Cork E
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour
Perfect call.

Cork NC
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour
Perfect call.

Cork NW
2 FF, 1 FG
Correct call, including on which FF man loses out.

Cork SC
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Labour
Jas didn't see the Green seat loss here (and thus had to pick between an FG gain and a Labour gain, where both happened in the end). Can't blame him. Also wrong on which FFer lost out, though, but again, can't really blame him.

Cork SW
2 FG, 1 FF
Correct on party headline figures, wrong on which FF man went down.

Clare
2 FF, 2 FG
James Breen lost narrowly, to FG as Jas thought possible (but didn't predict). The bit about Green outside chances though... (shakes head)

Kerry N
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF
Correct call, though O'Brien never stood a chance.

Kerry S
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 i
"the sitting oddity that is Independent ex-FF TD Jackie Healy-Rae" pulled through after all, and the closest competition came from FF rather than Labour. Correct on the FG pickup.

Limerick E
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Labour
Perfect call that Jas called "bold". Congrats.

Limerick W
2 FF, 1 FG
Correct call. (Though it was closer between the two FG men than between FF and FG).

Tipperary N
1 i, 1 FG, 1 FF
Correct call.

Tipperary S
2 FF, 1 FG
A near miss - Jas noticed that Healy (i) was in trouble.

Waterford
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour
Another good call.

Carlow - Kilkenny
3 FF, 1 FG, 1 Green
Classic case of underestimating FF staying power. Correct on the Green gain from Labour.

Kildare N
2 FF, 1 Labour, 1 FG
Jas predicted i Catherine Murphy to hold on, instead there was a second FF seat.

Kildare S
2 FF, 1 Labour
Correct call.

Laois - Offaly
3 FF, 2 FG
Perfect as usual.

Longford - Westmeath
2 FF, 1 Labour, 1 FG
Perfect call on a new constituency. Well done, man.

Louth
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF
Woefully underestimating Seamas Kirk, who beat everybody. McGuiness did come close, but the loser would have been SF.

Meath E
2 FF, 1 FG
Byrne (FF) got in instead of Hannigan (L). See what I said about 6-seaters. Ahern's government may well be saved by the Donegal and Meath constituency splits alone, which basically net FF one completely undeserved seat each at the expense of SF & Labour.

Meath W
2 FF, 1 FG
Correct call, seems to have been a relatively easy one though.

Wexford
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Labour
Correct on the party headline figures, but Jas' should have gone with his hunch that Twomey (...) "could be unseated by fellow party members". Didn't even get all that close to getting back in.

Wicklow
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Labour
No comment. -_-

Dublin C
2 FF, 1 i, 1 Labour
Pretty bad call here; Jas seems not to have seen the 2nd FF hold at all. Mind you, Brady got in on less than a thousand first preferences. SF not even runners up (but fairly strong for that.)

Dublin MW
1 FF, 1 Green, 1 PD, 1 Labour
correct, although Tuffy is wrongly listed as an FG candidate at the top of the post (but correctly as Labour lower down - I suspect Jas changed his call from FG to Labour there at one point, and was right in doing so. It was close between those two.)

Dublin N
2 FF, 1 Green, 1 FG
Correct on the FG pickup from Labour, way too optimistic on Daly.

Dublin NC
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 i
Should have stuck with his original prediction here.

Dublin NE
1 Labour, 1 FG, 1 FF
Near miss. Correct on the FF loss, and on which FF guy went down. Saw the battle for the pickup as a tossup and plumped for the wrong party (SF instead of FG).

Dublin NW
2 FF, 1 Labour
Another case of overestimating SF and underestimating FF, but he said it was close (tho' he didn't call it a tossup.)

Dublin S
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Green
Should have gone with "most people now". O'Donnell (PD) wasn't even the runner-up; another FF candidate was. (And a well outdistanced runner-up at that.)

Dublin SC
2 FF, 1 Labour, 1 FG, 1 SF
Correct call, though Ó Snodaigh really struggled there at the end.

Dublin SE
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour, 1 Green
Jas was too pessimistic on Labour's chances here. Quinn held on, instead PD leader McDowell went out. Correct on which new FF face was elected, correct on the FG pickup. Wrong on Gormley (Green)'s vote; Jas expected him to top the poll but in fact he was the last declared winner.

Dublin SW
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour
false. Lenihan was easily elected on the first count, it was his running mate who struggled, but he too pulled through in the end. SF's Sean Crowe lost his seat. Brian Hayes (FG) found election easier than Jas predicted, as well.

Dublin W
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour
Shame about Jas being proved wrong here.

Dún Laoghaire
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour, 1 Green
Correct on party headlines, wrong on who got in for FG. Good enough, I suppose.

19 (15 if you discount wrong winners for the right party) out of 43 ain't bad at all, Jas. Not gigantic, but not bad at all.

Put it another way, and you correctly predicted 135 out of 166 TDs.

[minionofmidas]

Thanks. I've been pronouncing it "Tay-oh-sheck".

I've been pronouncing it "tayshack".

[minionofmidas]

By the way... usind D'Hondt and first preferences:
FF 96
FG 52
Labour 11
SF 2
PD 2
Greens 1
indies 2

And Hare-Niemeyer:
FF 71
FG 49
Labour 25
SF 7
Greens 4
PD 2
indies 8

And just electing the x top vote getters
FF 83
FG 49
Labour 20
SF 4
Greens 3
PD 2
indies 5

While for the above, every indie/other candidate has been treated as a party of his own, in the following they're treated as as it were the Independent Party:

National PR
FF 69-70
FG 45-46
Labour 17
SF 11
Green 7-8
PD 4-5
Indies 11

[minionofmidas]

Seems to me that SF are the "Billy no mates" of Irish politics

Yeah, absolutely.

No party wants to be labeled as terrorists, and SF's hard left policies don't help matters.

True. But the fact that they're in government up North with the DUP means that the parties here can't really use the whole they're terrorist bad guys argument.

Anyways, who leads Labour? The Official IRA does, that's who.

[minionofmidas]

It's doubtful whether FG's status as Ireland's second party could survive a coalition with FF. After all, what would be the point of voting for them?

[minionofmidas]

What's it saying in the first line of the larger poster?

[minionofmidas]

AARGH. Someone removed the constituency results from Aertel already. And I wanted to do a little study on transfers... Nevermind, found em in a very nice format.

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There is a view held by some on the left which believes that a FF/FG coalition would be the best thing that could happen for the Irish left in the long run. Not sure how much I buy into it, but I see where they're coming from.
[/quote]FG's loss would not necessarily the Left's gain. Even a Left vote gain would be worthless if FF enjoyed a perpetual majority. At least nowadays, there's a hope to join coalitions from time to time. (Not to mention that both FF and FG have to take attention not to lose too many of their more leftish-inclined supporters.)

[minionofmidas]

These are vote totals to be transferred away from candidates of the party in question, with no distinction drawn between elimination and surplus redistribution.

County Dublin
FF:  to FF 16,938; to Labour 4746; to PD 3595; to FG 2990; to GP 2522; to others/indies 2147; to SF 673; exhausted 2461
FG: FG 14,956; Labour 4739; GP 4204; others/indies 1655; FF 873; SF 643; PD 89; exhausted 1071
Labour: Labour 3605; GP 3595; FG 2789; FF 649; PD 222; others/indies 157; SF 73; exhausted 864
SF: Labour 5817; FF 3792; GP 2573; FG 1861;  others/indies 1622; PD 296; exhausted 3349
GP: Labour 3526; FG 2824; GP 1159; others/indies 1221; FF 830; SF 721; exhausted 796
PD: FG 3407; FF 3017; GP 1934; Labour 891; others/indies 575; SF 10; exhausted 1224
others/indies: GP 6027; Labour 5228; SF 3195; FG 2680; others/indies 2146; FF 2070; PD 644; exhausted 2289
multiple eliminations (involving more than one party): others/indies 5974; Labour 3515; FF 3072; FG 2617; SF 823; GP 811; PD 74; exhausted 2742

Notice that redistributing votes to party x is subject to the availability of not yet elected, not yet eliminated candidates of party x.
FG's win among PD voters is entirely attributable to the fact that there was no FF candidate left when Liz McDowell was eliminated. Other win among multiple eliminations is entirely attributable to the double elimination of Labour and Green candidates in Fenian McGrath's constituency. There's probably other such trip-ups involved.

Connacht & Ulster
FF: FF 2726; others/indies 1961; SF 1566; FG 758; Labour 96; GP 81; PD 47; exhausted 817
FG: FF 7611; FG 4049; PD 1922; others/indies 1172; Labour 328; SF 155; GP 113; exhausted 3382
Labour: FG 2388; FF 665; others/indies 449; PD 228; exhausted 224
SF: FF 5921; FG 4925; others/indies 2805; Labour 564; GP 333; PD 176; exhausted 2619
GP: Labour 2911; FG 1260; FF 699; SF 398; PD 176; others/indies 90; exhausted 584
PD: FF 2854; FG 1920; Labour 430; others/indies 327; GP 161; SF 4; exhausted 428
indies/others: FG 8000; FF 5824; indies/others 1648; Labour 1355; GP 762; PD 296; SF 265; exhausted 3171
multiple eliminations: FG 10,930; FF 3893; SF 2307; others/Indies 1137; Labour 373; Greens 242; PD 126; exhausted 2402
 
Same caveats as above.

[minionofmidas]

Leinster outside Dublin:
FF: FF 11,760; FG 3439; GP 905; PD 722; SF 559; Labour 456; i 438; exhausted 512
FG: FG 23,910; FF 2957; Labour 2607; GP 1125; i 919; SF 905; PD 156; exhausted 3219
Labour: FG 9188; FF 3886; GP 3725; Labour 3172; SF 894; PD 73; exhausted 2577
SF: FF 4951; FG 4466; Labour 3317; GP 1589; i 326; PD 265; exhausted 3191
GP: Labour 6689; FG 6539; SF 2050; i 1092; FF 1073; PD 66; exhausted 3829
PD: FF 4754; FG 2501; Labour 693; GP 209; SF 197; i 70; exhausted 1468
i: FG 3916; FF 2919; Labour 2251; GP 1330; SF 752; i 464; PD 133; exhausted 1267
multiple eliminations: Labour 1774; FG 1706; FF 1529; GP 1082; i 660; SF 308; PD 172; exhausted 546

the Monster:
FF: FF 29,269; FG 5436; Labour 3589; i 3488; PD 2130; GP 1453; SF 279; exhausted 4689
FG: FG 16,601; Labour 6248; FG 5641; i 3400; GP 829; SF 686; PD 40; exhausted 2209
Labour: FG 14,470; FF 6673; i 2736; Labour 1776; exhausted 5413
SF: Labour 5924; FF 5772; FG 5331; i 1050; Gp 875; PD 144; exhausted 4462
GP: FG 7347; Labour 6744; FF 2650; i 1192; SF 452; PD 58; exhausted 2481
i: FG 3958; Labour 3567; FF 3388; SF 2624; i 1194; GP 723; PD 204; exhausted 1757
multiple eliminations: FG 5827; FF 5380; Labour 3405; GP 1360; SF 1202; i 798; exhausted 1996

No, I did not forget to list PD. Of 13 constituencies in Munster (5 in Cork, 2 each in Kerry, Limerick and Tipperary, one each for Clare and Waterford) 7 went uncontested by the party, in five was their candidate involved in multiple eliminations (twice with Greens, twice with Labour, and once with Sinn Fein), and one ended up as the runner-up.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, I'd been wondering about your absence.

[minionofmidas]

Meanwhile, Rebel TD Dr Jim McDaid (FF-Donegal North East) threatens to pull the plug on Ahern

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/rebel-td-threatens-to-pull-the-plug-on-ahern-689953.html

Dr McDaid claimed his party had given him no support during the election, and added: "They gave me nothing and I owe them nothing."

Although returned in Donegal North East, Dr McDaid said: "Fianna Fail gave me no support whatever. I was treated as an independent deputy and everyone knows that."

Dave

There was massive infighting in Donegal NE. McDaid only ran again to prevent Neil Blaney from reelection, who had recently joined FF but in his own previous independent tenure was basically SF lite. (The Blaney family has a long history in representing the area with such an agenda, first within FF, then outside it. And now back in.) The end result was that the mainline FF candidate fell by the wayside, with the pro- and anti-SF wings getting in.

[minionofmidas]

Oh god there is so much things in this thread I wish to post.. damn, my 12 day absence.

Well the next general election might be 5 years away... so might as well give us your thoughts to chew on for a while.

I don't think there is any doubt that Ahern will be Taoiseach, To Quote Neil Delamare "He [Enda] will need Labour, The Greens, The PDs, The Independents, the weirdos, the orcs, the elves and Jackie Healy Rae".

Healy-Rae is listed four times!

[minionofmidas]

Department of Transport and later out of government altogether. In 2005 he garnered publicity for being caught driving on the wrong side of a motorway.

doesn#t everybody in Ireland drive on the wrong side of the road?

[minionofmidas]

Victory!

[minionofmidas]

Also today, the Taoiseach held a meeting with Independent Finian McGrath (Dublin NC).

I've always wondered - is that the same name as "Fenian"?

[minionofmidas]

I'll be watching this space... still hoping that the deal falls through and we'll have new elections soon.

[minionofmidas]

The Green membership have backed the deal - 86% in favour.

Yes: 441
No: 67
Spolt: 2

Sh!t.

[minionofmidas]

Despite some confusion it has been confirmed that Sargent is stepping down (though one notes that he was strongly in favour of the deal and was self-evidently delighted when the declaration came through).

Okay, now I don't understand anything anymore. Wtf is going on?