minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
Posts: 58,206
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« on: August 29, 2006, 05:13:26 AM » |
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« edited: August 29, 2006, 05:21:04 AM by rabbit dancing in the middle of a firefight »
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Hmm... in 1958, ultraconservative US Senator William Knowland (who later committed suicide, and who despite similar politics was a sworn enemy of Nixon's) won the US nomination for Governor of California after "a brutal primary" according to Wiki - it doesn't say against whom -, while the state's liberal Republican governor, Goodwin Knight (another sworn enemy of both men) ran for Senator to avoid primary defeat by Knowland. Both men lost the general by decisive margins. Knight lost to Clair Engle by 10 points, Knowland lost to Pat Brown by almost 20 points - Brown would of course go on to beat Nixon by 5 points in 62 and then to lose by 15 points to Ronald Reagan.
Both Knowland and Knight's political careers were over as a result of 58, leaving Nixon in control of the state Republican Party. Both had been considered possible future presidential candidates until then.
Had Nixon been eased out as VP in 56 (and it was a real possibility. Very very real) and forced to embroil himself into this mess, it's safe to say he would have suffered the same fate.
But I can also see him challenging Eisenhower for the nomination if he knew he was to be replaced. (Not to mention, staying as far out of the 58 fight as possible even if he's without office). He would have lost that, of course, but he might have survived intact as a potential future conservative challenger.
The 1960 nomination would have been out of reach for a non-VP Nixon no matter what though. It would have probably gone to whoever replaced him as VP, or possibly to Rockefeller. Rockefeller would likely have won, picking up enough additional northeastern states to make up for potential Southern and Western losses.
A conservative low-profile VP would have done quite similar to Nixon, but probably wouldn't have been back in 68.
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