Iraq 2005 (user search)
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Author Topic: Iraq 2005  (Read 3702 times)
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 58,206
India


« on: January 20, 2006, 09:23:28 AM »

Results are not yet on the Iraqi Electoral Commission's website. From the Spiegel, I get 5 of these 14 others for that Kurdish Islamist opposition grouping.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« Reply #1 on: January 20, 2006, 04:15:05 PM »

Kurdish turnout was still very high, though not quite as ridiculously high as last time around (due to less fraud).
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« Reply #2 on: January 23, 2006, 08:05:59 AM »
« Edited: January 23, 2006, 08:12:31 AM by Jean Chrétien »

Full results...(party names are those used by the IECI)

Unified Iraqi Coalition         5,021mio 41.2% 109+19
Kurdistani Gathering          2,642 mio 21.7% 43+10
Tawafoq Iraqi Front          1,840 mio 15.1% 37+7 (aka Accord Front)
National Iraqi List               977K         8.0%  21+4
Hewar National Iraqi Front 500K         4.1%  9+2 (aka National Dialogue Front)
Islamic Union of Kurdistan 158K         1.3%   4+1
Progressives                     145K         1.2%   1+1 (can someone tell me who these guys are? Their votes come from Shi'a areas)
Liberation & Reconciliation Gathering 130K 1.1% 3+0
Iraqi Turkuman Front        88K            0.7%  1+0
Al Rafedeen List                47K            0.4%  0+1 (Christians)
Iraqi National Congress     34K            0.3%  0+0
Mithal Al Aloosi List for Iraqi Nation 32K 0.3% 1+0
(3 no-seats, 0.2% parties)
Al Ezediah Movement for Progressing & Reform 22K 0.2 1+0 (Yezidis. Very interesting religious minority)

Turnout is hard to gather... the IECI's site (with an American domain address!?) doesn't seem to have the total registered as of december. It does have total registered as of january, since that is what the seat allocation was based on, but on these figures Sunni turnout was over 100% (unsurprising, as people tried to evade getting registered in january) and Kurdish turnout was about 100% (still up to their old tricks).

Anyways, results by province...comparison results are with January and come from that map by Patrick Ruffini...registered voters is january...I'm listing all the parties that got a seat plus one.

Basrah 16 seats - 1,035K registered voters - turnout 77.6%
UIC  77.5% (+7.3) 13
NIL 11.0% (-9.5) 2
Tawafoq 4.7% 1
"Movement of the Revolutionists of Al Shaabanya Uprising / Headquarters in Iraq" 1.8% What's the Al Shaabanya Uprising? Was that 1992?

Missan 7 seats - 417K voters - 77.0%
UIC 86.9% (+17.6) 6
NIL 4.3% (-15.2) 1
Progressives 3.4%

Theqar 12 seats - 779K voters - 74.8%
UIC 86.7% (+5.8) 11
NIL 5.0% (-5.6) 1
Progressives 2.9%

Muthana 5 seats - 295K voters - 69.8%
UIC 86.5% (+9.4) 5
NIL 4.3% (-12.9) 0

Qadissiya 8 seats - 487K voters - 68.8%
UIC 81.5% (+6.7) 7
NIL 8.5% (-8.8) 1
"The Islamic Al Wala'a Party" 2.2%

Najaf 8 seats - 494K voters - 76.9%
UIC 82.0% (+3.2) 7
NIL 7.8% (-6.4) 1
Progressives 4.1%

Wassit 8 seats - 495K voters - 70.9%
UIC 80.7% (+7.2) 7
NIL 8.1% (-9.2) 1
Progressives 4.5%

Karbala 6 seats - 409K voters - 74.6%
UIC 76.1% (+6.2) 5
NIL 11.7% (-9.5) 1
Progressives 2.7%

Babil 11 seats - 694K voters - 84.1%
UIC 76.2% (-3.1) 9
NIL 8.7% (-3.3) 1
Tawafoq 5.5% 1
Progressives 1.6%

Baghdad 59 seats - 3,665 mio voters - 72.1%
UIC 56.6% (-4.0) 34
Tawafoq 21.1% 13
NIL 13.4% (-11.4) 8
Hewar 1.8% 1
Progressives 1.8% 1
Kurds 1.0% 1
Mithal al Aloosi 0.6% 1
Al Rafedeen 0.4% 0

Anbar 9 seats - 574K voters - 101.0%
Tawafoq 73.8% (+62.8 on Al-Yawer list of january) 7
Hewar 18.0% 2
NIL 3.1% (-35.2) 0. Of course turnout in Anbar was so low a year ago that this represents an increase in votes. UIA got 34.8% then.

Salahaddin 8 seats - 498K voters - 108.8%
Tawafoq 33.1% 3
Hewar 18.9% 2
NIL 10.8% 1
LRG 9.5% 1
UIC 7.4% (-14.1) 1
Kurds 5.0% (-8.6) 0

Diyala 10 seats - 624K voters - 83.3%
Tawafoq 37.5% 4
UIC 22.4% (-20.8) 2
Kurds 12.4% (-5.0) 2
NIL 10.6% 1
Hewar 10.4% 1
LRG 1.4% 0

Kirkuk 9 seats - 576K voters - 101.7%
Kurds 53.4% (-6.3) 5
Hewar 14.0% 1
Turkuman 10.9% (-5.6) 1
Tawafoq 5.9% 1
LRG 4.5% 1
UIC 3.4% 0

Ninewa 19 seats - 1,198 mio voters - 77.0%
Tawafoq 36.7% (+8.6 on Al-Yawer) 7
Kurds 19.4% (-18.9) 4
NIL 11.0% 2
Hewar 10.2% 2
UIC 7.6% 2
LRG 2.9% 1
Al Ezediah 2.2% 1
"Al Mousel Free List" 1.4% 0

Sulaymaniya 15 seats - 914K voters - 87.5%
Kurds 87.2% 13 (-4.3)
IUK 10.8% 2
"The Islamic Movement in Kurdistan / Iraq" 1.4% 0

Erbil 13 seats - 795K voters - 102.6%
Kurds 94.7% (-0.1) 12
IUK 3.6% 1
NIL 0.4% 0

Dohuk 7 seats - 429K voters - 97.4%
Kurds 90.3% (-5.0) 6
IUK 7.1% 1
Al Rafedeen List 1.2% 0
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« Reply #3 on: January 24, 2006, 06:26:41 AM »

The system used is actually the same as in Germany - except for the lack of a threshold. (well - there was a threshold for the national seats, but that was 1/275th of the vote.)
By the way, Liberation & Reconciliation seems to be a Sunni Arab party as well, judging by where their votes came from.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« Reply #4 on: January 24, 2006, 06:47:44 AM »

Oh yes. 90%+ of their vote came from a single province, which helped immensely.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« Reply #5 on: January 25, 2006, 04:59:40 AM »

What we don't do is have proportional seats for regions and then top-up seats nationally - well actually, Saarland state does. But we're sure using largest remainders. I think the Dutch are as well, and their threshold is 1/150th of the national vote.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« Reply #6 on: January 28, 2006, 08:45:19 AM »


But we're sure using largest remainders. I think the Dutch are as well, and their threshold is 1/150th of the national vote.
No, we don't. In the Netherlands, the d'Hondt-largest averages method is used, at least for elections involving 19 or more seats (which are all elections except municipal council elections in municipalities with <20,000 inhabitants).

The threshold is 1/150th of the national vote though for Second Chamber elections, for other councils with 19+ seats there is no official threshold, but the largest average method favours the larger parties.

For municipal councils with 9-17 seats, the largest remainder method is used, and a threshold of 1/(0.75*# of seats) of the vote.

The largest remainder system was used on a national level though, from 1918-1933, with a threshold of 1/200th of the national vote in 1918 and 1/150th in 1922-1933. Since this resulted in a lot of small parties and electoral tricks by larger parties, this was abolished for the 1937 elections when the present system was introduced.
D'Hondt is not largest averages though. Huh Maybe you're thinking of Sainte-Lague?
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