German Election Prediction Contest (user search)
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Author Topic: German Election Prediction Contest  (Read 2537 times)
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« on: September 18, 2005, 07:45:41 AM »

1. Predict the % of the vote for the following parties: CDU-CSU (bonus point for seperate %'s), SPD, Green, FDP, Left
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Union 40.5%
SPD 34.5%
Greens 8.2%
Left 7.8%
FDP 6.3%
other 2.7%

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Union - Bavaria, Baden Württemberg, Hessen ( Sad ), Rhineland Pfalz, Saxony, Schleswig Holstein
SPD - all others

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You know that this is frigging impossible, right?

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grand
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2005, 05:15:13 AM »

BTW, any idea who will win in Halle?

Right, we have one of those closes races here too. Ask me again this evening. Wink

Wouldn't be too surprised though when Riemann-Hanewinckel (SPD), Bergner (CDU) and Sitte (Left) will each win 31%, 30%, and 29% of the votes in the end (not particularly in this order).

The results in my constituency...

Christel Riemann-Hanewinckel (SPD): 36.0%
Petra Sitte (Left): 27.4%
Christoph Bergner (CDU): 24.8%
Cornelia Pieper (FDP): 4.9%
Dietmar Weihrich (Greens): 3.5%

Hanewinckel has now won her seat the 4th time in a row (1994, 1998, 2002, 2005).


Btw, the closest single member seat result was the one in Odenwald (Hesse), where the CDU candidate defeated the SPD candidate with a margin of only 82 votes!
Yeah, Odenwald has been something of a "mirror" of federal results recently. In fact, several seats in Southern Hessen have been - Hanau, Wetterau (but these were held by the SPD.)

My constituency, the SPD guy Gregor Amann pulled through, but in the other Frankfurt constituency, that horrible woman Erika Steinbach won for the first time since 94. Sad Which means Frankfurt will have 5 MPs and not 6.
(Steinbach CDU, Fischer Greens, Otto FDP, and Gehrcke Left had safe list spots. Steinbach's SPD opponent Ulli Nissen needed to win the direct seat, as did Frankfurt I's two main contenders, Markus Frank CDU and Gregor Amann SPD. In the theoretical case of a Green result of about 10% nationally, Omid Nouripour Greens might have made yet another Frankfurt MP- he was 6th on the Green party state list.)
The precinct I sat in and counted in went thus -
70% turnout
SPD 42% - no change
CDU 29% - down 5 points
Greens 12% - no change
FDP - 8 or so, up a tad
Left - 7 or so, up 4-5 points
others - 2-3%, half of that NPD.
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