If we suppose a swing to Perot of 14%, half from Bush, half from Clinton, it would give the PV Clinton 36%, Bush 30% and Perot 33%, with Perot running is second place. I have distributed his pickup equally over the country, which might not be right, but probably would not help Perot that much anyway.
In addition to the above states, Perot would then pick up Texas, Oklahoma and South Dakota from Bush, as well as coming within 0.15% of winning North Dakota and 0.07% of winning Florida. He would also pick up Washington, Oregon, New Hampshire, Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Connecticut and Ohio from Clinton, making the total number of EVs the following:
Perot: 158
Bush: 101
Clinton: 279
So Clinton would still win. And most of the remaining Clinton states are those in the south, mid-west, west and North East where he had close to 50%. So it is hard to see Clinton not losing that election, it seems to me like most of the places where Perot was strong were GOP territory, he couldn't have hurt Clinton that much either way.
Clinton:
How high do you have to go
a for an election decided by the house
b for a Perot victory?
