Why does everyone keep saying CT? I think IL s more likely to flip than CT. MD and DE are the most likely if you ask me, but it would take not only a good Republican but a bad Democrat as well. WA is also possible if there are some kind of extraordinary circumstances on or near election day, such as a natural disaster along the coast...
IL...no way. Look at how polarized that state is. No "good" Democratic candidate could lose that state. Same thing with Washington, although it's way closer. It would go if the Reps won a decisive victory...but that would mean there was no good Dem candidate.
CT/DE/*perhaps* MD (and even NJ?) are a different shop altogether. They're all very suburban states, except for Maryland they did vote for Gerald Ford, and NJ and CT have been a good bit closer in 04 than in 2000.
There's people here who're hoping for a realignment back to something more closely like 76, ie more class based and less social issues based than now. There are others that wouldn't rule it out. In such a scenario these states would all be very much in play. Of course they'd be counterbalanced by Dem pickups in the Upper South.
About the same I'd say. Both parties have *some* people who find it hard to fathom/stomach that such people should exist.
