Census 2011: Germany has 80.219.695 inhabitants

[minionofmidas]

I'd think the overcount is most likely to be where the transient migrants are - Berlin, Hamburg and the rich Southern states.
There are of course also all sorts of shenanigans with official residency of German young adults (registered where their parents are rather than where they themselves are), but I doubt the Census actually caught that.

[minionofmidas]

No, this Census only counted people where they are registered with their MAIN residence.

It attempted to. They mailed questionnaires to people. People with an official main residence where their parents are going to receive their questionnaire... and most of them are probably going to make the same false claim on the census questionnaire as at the Meldestelle. Remember that, for German citizens, their official main residence doubles as their voter registration... they might not actually live there, but they damn sure receive mail sent to it.

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They might brandish the 700k figure for promotional material, but they do of course do a double count. And you get more detailed breakdowns mostly for the Hauptwohnung only counts (since otherwise a lot of people with two official residences within the city also get double-counted)... which is 667k fortgeschrieben. (Cologne is particularly adamant about putting only the misleading "including second residences" numbers in visible places... they usually have over a million inhabitants in that, as they like to think to have, but have never in fact had in the real numbers.)

I don't know exactly how far off the estimate was from the 1987 count - which was designed to be better at catching misrepresentations - but the 1987 census result for Frankfurt is 5k above the 1986 fortgeschrieben from 1970 numbers, and 1k below the 1988 fortgeschrieben from 1987 numbers.

Re seats: I've looked it up. The seat loss will be automatic.

[minionofmidas]

Ah, so their population has been growing a good bit over the past decade as well.

And thanks for that link: I just got the point.
The Census of 1987 made an effort to determine whether people's officially secondary residences were really their primary ones, and if clearly so counted them at the secondary one. This meant that more people actually lived in big cities than officially did so. Fortgeschriebene data from 1987 thus include (or subtract) shadow people from the formal main residences count - since there's no way of telling which individuals these were and what became of them over the intervening 25 years or who else did the same thing since.

The 2011 joke procedure does nothing of the kind, and takes people's word for it that they really live at their parents' home in suburbia or rural East Germany. Hence the need to correct, or rather to abandon all pretense at correctness.

My 667k figure was end of 2011 (fortgeschrieben).

[minionofmidas]

I'm already really excited.

Im Ernst jetzt?

[minionofmidas]

10.572.000 - Baden-Württemberg
12.328.000 - Bayern
  3.395.000 - Berlin
  2.443.000 - Brandenburg
     647.000 - Bremen
  1.754.000 - Hamburg
  5.950.000 - Hessen
  1.601.000 - Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
  7.757.000 - Niedersachsen
17.479.000 - Nordrhein-Westfalen
  3.920.000 - Rheinland-Pfalz
     995.000 - Saarland
  4.047.000 - Sachsen
  2.274.000 - Sachsen-Anhalt
  2.777.000 - Schleswig-Holstein
  2.179.000 - Thüringen

80.118.000 - Germany

The numbers:

10.487.000 - Baden-Württemberg
12.398.000 - Bayern
  3.292.000 - Berlin
  2.456.000 - Brandenburg
     651.000 - Bremen
  1.707.000 - Hamburg
  5.972.000 - Hessen (fun fact: Hesse retroactively loses and regains the fifth Bundesrat vote - it has grown by more than 28k since census day according to register changes... Effing hilarious.)
  1.610.000 - Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
  7.778.000 - Niedersachsen
17.538.000 - Nordrhein-Westfalen
  3.990.000 - Rheinland-Pfalz
  1.000.000 - Saarland
  4.057.000 - Sachsen
  2.287.000 - Sachsen-Anhalt
  2.800.000 - Schleswig-Holstein
  2.189.000 - Thüringen

80.220.000 - Germany

[minionofmidas]

change compared to register / compared to Tender's estimate

Schleswig-Holstein -1.2 / +0.8
Hamburg -4.6 / -2.7
Lower Saxony -1.7 / +0.3
Bremen -1.4 / +0.6
NRW -1.7 / +0.3
Hesse -1.6 / +0.4
Rhineland-Pfalz -0.2 / +1.8
Baden-Württemberg -2.5 / -0.8
Bavaria -1.2 / +0.6
Saarland -1.5 / +0.5
Berlin -5.2 / -3.0
Brandenburg -1.7 / +0.5
McPomm -1.7 / +0.6
Saxony -2.0 / +0.2
Saxony-Anhalt -1.7 / +0.6
Thuringia -1.8 / +0.5

Some of this is as I would have predicted - Berlin, Hamburg and Baden-Württemberg as the most overestimated states should have blindingly obvious. Though the extent in Berlin and Hamburg is pretty crass. While you overestimated the eastern states, I would have underestimated them. (Saxony as the most overestimate eastern state is another obvious one. I've checked - the error is most pronounced in Leipzig and Dresden.) Only three quarter of the missing number appear to be transient foreigners of yesteryear, I'd have guessed at closer 90%.
Bavaria is weird to me. That looked like a safe pick for fourth place. Rhineland-Pfalz also sticks out.

[minionofmidas]

Why not? Districts now thought to be with more people in it than we previously thought.

Lübeck city
Neumünster city
Segeberg
Stormarn
Lüchow-Dannenberg
Holzminden
Cloppenburg
Herford
Bielefeld city
Münster city (wtfh?)
Bottrop city
Gelsenkirchen city
Remscheid city
Rheinisch-Bergischer Kreis
Lahn-Dill
Limburg-Weilburg
Westerwald
Koblenz city
Mayen-Koblenz
Cochem-Zell
Rhine-Hunsrück
Bernkastel-Wittlich
Daun "Vulkaneifel"
Bitburg-Prüm
Trier city
Trier-Saarburg
Mainz city
Alzey-Worms
Donnersberg
Kusel
Kaiserslautern rural
Pirmasens city
Zweibrücken city
Aschaffenburg rural
Miltenberg
Schweinfurt rural
Weißenburg-Gunzenhausen
Neustadt-Windsheim
Fürth city
Bamberg city
Tirschenreuth
Landshut city
Augsburg city
Memmingen city
Kempten city
Greifswald (now former) city
Jena city

Some of this actually makes sense (the two East German uni towns would not of course have the West German problem of this census' comparatively lower accuracy. The phenomenon involved did not yet exist there when the last census was taken.)

A note on Bavaria: Both things happened. The growth region around Munich was not as heavily overstated as that around Stuttgart. And the state includes a lot of hinterland with the reverse trend. And a third thing happened: Swabia stands out in the same inexplicable way that Rhineland-Pfalz does. Maybe it's just a competence issue...

[minionofmidas]

Fun fact: population belonging to the big Catholic and Lutheran churches.

overall: 38.9% neither, 30.8% Catholics, 30.3% Lutherans
By gender: Men 42% neither, 29.8% Catholics, 28.2% Lutherans
Women 35.8% neither, 32.4% Lutherans, 31.8% Catholics
By citizenship: German citizens 36.2% neither, 32.5% Lutherans, 31.3% Catholics
noncitizens 69.4% neither, 26.6% Catholics, 4.0% Lutherans
By age: <18 41.5% neither, 29.9% Catholics, 28.6% Lutherans
18-29 38.8% neither, 31.4% Catholics, 29.8% Lutherans
30-49 44.0% neither, 29.4% Catholics, 26.6% Lutherans
50-64 41.0% neither, 30.6% Catholics, 28.4% Lutherans
65+ 39.2% Lutherans, 33.5% Catholics, 27.3% neither
The median age for Lutherans would appear to be 49. (Catholics 46 or 47 or so, neithers about 40.) Those 65 in 2011 were 21 old in 1967, of course. Small wonder that's the major break.
Church members would appear to still outbreed unchurched people (and by 18-29 not everyone who intends to get out has already done so.)
But very interesting about women's higher church retention rate - or is that just the higher life expectancy showing? I wonder how that correlated with marital status.

[minionofmidas]

That happens when you basically pose a question of "are you a member of the two big state-entrenched religious organizations yes/no/other (write in)".

[minionofmidas]

Hessen had 5.993.771 people at the end of 2011.

So, what will they do ?

Will they use the 2011 Census numbers or the End-2011 numbers for Hessen (loses 1 seat), or will they re-apportion later, using the End-2012 numbers (keeps all seats, because more than 6 Mio.) ?

The number of votes (they aren't, of course, actually seats) amends monthly. According to the state data as retroactively emended for the Census result, Hesse crossed 6 million inhabitants in June. They keep the vote.

Of course that still means we used a sixth vote we shouldn't have had for 16 years. (Or maybe there were ups and downs and we'd have been over 6 million for part of that time anyways? Like I care.)

States with highest share of migration background:

27.5% Hamburg
25.2% Baden-Württemberg
25.1% Bremen

That surprises you? Ever had a look at Switzerland? (Also, be sure to check the definition of Migrationshintergrund.)

[minionofmidas]

"Kazakhstan"

...

Germans in Kazakhstan coming back to Germany in the past 20 years I suppose, then counted as someone with "migrant background" ?

"Aussiedler und Spätaussiedler"

Of course, the inclusion of the 'Russians' makes perfect sociological sense. The Romania Germans and the 70's set of Poland-German emigrants, rather a lot less so.

But really, the big issue is that the precise definition used can vary a lot between statistical tables (the citizenship tables that were all that was available until about five years ago having become quite uninformative) - city statistical offices frequently speak of an 'indication of migration' rather than a 'migrant background' as they wouldn' be able to know if your parents were naturalized a year before you were born (and thus count loads of young Turkish kids as having no 'indication of migration'. 'Migration' being, of course, understood as a synonym for ethnic otherness by anybody looking at these tables.)

[minionofmidas]

It's almost certainly much more simple: Note the exact figures by age group.
30-50 3 points fewer church members than 50-65, their children (<18) 2.7 points fewer church members than the 50-65ers' children (18-29) but 2.5 points more church members than their parents (18-29: 3.0). It's a case of churched ethnic Germans outbreeding unchurched ethnic Germans.

The overall higher church retention rate of Catholics (check the over 65 numbers. Germany is ancestrally majority Protestant) is of course largely, though not quite entirely, due to the large minority of Catholics among the immigrant populations.

Verin, mainline church attendance on ordinary sundays is exclusively elderly female except for the priest and an occasional pensioner dragged along by his wife over virtually the entirety of Germany [/slight exaggeration]. The vast majority of church members aren't seen except at baptisms, confirmations, funerals and *possibly* weddings, Christmas and Easter. Though they might send their kids to a churchey youth group.

[minionofmidas]

"assumed", not "estimated". Way to murder the joke.