2004 Democratic Primary

[minionofmidas]

Well, it obviously is, Natalie, as can be seen from the fact it's done by 16% of Progressives, but 0% of registered Republicans and Democrats.

[minionofmidas]

www.electionprediction.com has finally started doing the Federal election.

They seem to have bandwidth problems.

[minionofmidas]

Stephen Harper has finally won the CPC leadership contest in the first ballot.

Here's the results aired on CPAC.

Stephen Harper: 15,614.7 points
Belinda Stronach: 9,922.2 points
Tony Clement: 2,663.1 points

Finally some good news for Martin...

What good news for Martin? Taking all the 8 Conservative remaining seats in the Atlantic while losing around 40 in the rest of the country? (i.e., minimum of 10 seats to the BQ in Quebec, 20 to the CPC in Ontario, and 10 to the CPC in the West)

How are the Liberals going to lose ten seats in Western Canada? They've pretty much lost everything there was to lose in the West already.

[minionofmidas]

Another Ipsos-Reid poll has been published, the Liberals' recovery seems to be taking a long time.  This poll has the largest sample size among the '04 Ipsos polls to date (n=2111 individuals, MoE 2.1%)

From Ipsos-Reid

Federal voting intention in Canada
LPC 38%
CPC 26%
NDP 17%
BQ 12%

Regional breakdown

Atlantic

LPC 49%
CPC 31%
NDP 17%

Quebec

Bloc Québécois 49%
LPC 31%
NDP 8%
CPC 6%

Ontario

LPC 47%
CPC 31%
NDP 16%

Manitoba & Saskatchewan

LPC 36%
NDP 31%
CPC 24%

Alberta

CPC 57%
LPC 24%
NDP 16%

British Columbia

LPC 33%
NDP 29%
CPC 27%
Green Party 10%

That translates into gains and losses as follows:
Atlantic Lib +9, Con -10, NDP flat
Quebec Bloc +9, Lib -13, NDP +6, Con -6
Ontario Lib -4, Con -7, NDP +8
Man/Sask Lib +9, NDP +8, Con -25
Alta Con -15, Lib +3, NDP +10
B.C. Lib +5, NDP +18, Con -30
On these figures, the Liberals would almost certainly keep their absolute majority of seats.

[minionofmidas]

On the simplistic assumption that the swing will be uniform across these regions, expect the following results:
Liberals 158
Conservatives 72
BQ 57
NDP 20
ind 1

Atlantic: Lib 23 - Con 8 - NDP 1 (bad news for the NDP...)
Quebec: BQ 57 - Lib 18 (routed outside Montreal and the Outaouais)
Ontario: Lib 84 - Con 20 - NDP 1 - i 1 (yes, I know that independent "win" should be pretty much disregarded; and I know the "equal swing" presumption is pretty absurd here, and the NDP actually has a very good chance of picking a few Toronto seats)
Man/Sask: NDP 10 - Lib 9 - Con 9 (for once, it's the NDP who's voters would be better distributed)
Alberta: Con 24 - Lib 4 (all of them in Edmonton)
BC: Lib 18 - Con 11 - NDP 7 (the Conservatives to hang on in most of the Interior, but pretty much routed in the Vancouver Area, and Vancouver Island splitting 3-3 between Liberals and NDP)
I assumed that the NDP would probably take Yukon and the other two territories seats are safe Liberal.

[minionofmidas]

Atlantic: Lib 23 - Con 8 - NDP 1 (bad news for the NDP...)

Won't happen. The NDP will win at least 3 for sure in NS, and Godin seems safe in NB.

That's actually more like the maximum for the NDP over there, but I agree it's quite possible.

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I don't see the BQ winning that many seats...
[/quote]They've done it before...

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I don't see the Liberals gaining in Saskatchwan... and re-distribution has caused some serious problems for them in Winnepeg.[/quote]This breaks up provincewise as: Manitoba Lib 7, NDP 4, Con 3; Saskatchewan NDP 6, Con 6, Lib 2. So I don't see them gaining in Saskatchewan either...

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The Liberals win 4 seats in Alberta?! They will be lucky to hang on to the 2 they have now... [/quote]I'll have to disagree here. This is one province where the technical result is exactly what I'd have predicted anyways.

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The Greenies won't win 10%... I'd assume most of that will go over to the NDP. Uniform swing is a VERY bad idea in BC (the political climate has changed completely...)[/quote]It's only a rough guideline, obviously...Yeah, I guess the NDP will probably take a few more than seven seats here.

[minionofmidas]

Beaumont, Centre, East and Strathcona.
But as the NDP is not polling higher in the Maritimes than at the last elections, while the Liberals are, I don't see much scope for upset NDP victories here. Toronto is more interesting in that respect.
On Quebec: I don't think the BQ will win by the kind of margin they have in the polls right now, but if they do, they will knock off all those seats.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, I know, I used that just right now for all these swings.
Having been to Edmonton, I actually can't understand how the Alliance could ever win in Strathcona. It's sure got an extremely liberal (American sense) feel. The Southeast of the city, meanwhile, (ie, Beaumont riding) is strongly South Asian. The Southwest though, where I was staying, is terrible. Very affluent suburban nightmare.

[minionofmidas]

I don't like the BC result. I don't like it at all.
Otherwise it's pretty much unchanged from the last poll.

[minionofmidas]

Tell me again: What date is the election?

[minionofmidas]

What created this thread? It seems to be a number of old threads just pieced together into one...including a very nice thread on the Canadian Federal Election of 2004 which is wanted to read again (it's in the 80's).