Italy 2013 official results thread

[minionofmidas]

Disappointingly strong for Monti.

Revoluzione?

[minionofmidas]

Corriere has one of

Bersani 38%
Berlusconi 30%
Grillo 19%
Monti 10%
Ingroia between 3 and 4%

wait... that makes 100-101% and therefore makes no sense. Huh. It's possible that actually read "Monti below 10%"

[minionofmidas]

So they're counting out the total number of votes cast before separating them by party (the reasonable thing to do, and what we're supposed to do here in Germany as well), and (unlike in Germany) actually reporting that figure once they have it.

So we have quite a bit of hard data already in, just only of turnout rather than party strength.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, there are 27 precincts in for the Camera and 500 for the Senate. The Senate figures have the center-left up 10, the Camera figures have Berlusconi ahead by 1.5 points.

[minionofmidas]

With 1200 precincts in, Grillo in second place nationally for Senate.

Oh, and the Camera at 41 precincts in still has Berlusconi in first and Bersani in second, but it's basically a three-way tie.

[minionofmidas]

Liguria is actually 20% in for Senate... and Grillo is at 30%. Yessir. I doubt that's still wherever-results-are-in-from madness.
Now, I recognize he's a local... but wowza.

EDIT: Actually it is - that's 30% in from Genova, far less from the other provinces, and two of them have him lower. Although the last one has Grillo leading right now, because it's Imperia and they don't vote for the left there so the same share as in Genova is enough to be narrowly on top.

[minionofmidas]

Silvio has dropped to third for the Camera as well. I hope it holds.

[minionofmidas]

For some reason, Senate votes seems to be counted much more quickly. There already are 2000 sections in, instead of just around 75 for the House.

I would assume most precincts count them first.

[minionofmidas]

Let's post the actual counted figures:

Senate 7.023 of 60.431 precincts in

If you click this through region-by-region, it comes out as a Berlusconi win actually, with the Left leading only Friuli, Liguria and Sardegna beyond the usual suspects. Though who knows where early results in some of those southern regions are from.

[minionofmidas]

Italy and the US are just about the only "true" bicameral countries left in the world.

Left has taken the lead in Calabria fwiw.

[minionofmidas]

While national tallies are slowly - probably too slowly for a national vote lead - getting better for Berlusconi, regional numbers are not. Now that Rome has started reporting (early precincts were mostly from the Lazian countryside, which is quite rightwing) that region has flipped and then some. Calabria is swinging back and forth with every update, but the lead in Piemonte is slowly growing, Molise has flipped, the Left is hanging on in Friuli and Abbruzzo is certainly not safe for Berlusconi yet. The panic may be just a little premature.

[minionofmidas]

Piemonte lead is down to less than a thousand votes.

[minionofmidas]

Piemonte lead is down to less than a thousand votes.

Call it for Il Cav now.

He's now up 1700 votes, but Torino - the only left-leaning province there, and much the largest, is slightly behind in counting compared to the rest of the region, so... if forced to call it now, which is something you don't want to be, you'd call it for the Left.

[minionofmidas]

lol, I've been to two of the eight municipalities that still haven't reported turnout! (One of them is Rome though. Then again, none of the other seven are large. The other one that I've visited is Anzio. Which coincidentally is as far south as I ever got in Italy.)

[minionofmidas]

I just woke up to read this thread. Can I have an an update on the national numbers for Chamber and Senate please?

About a 3.5 point lead for the Left in the Senate with half the vote in, but their stronghold regions are further ahead in counting and anyways they are stacking up useless huge vote lead piles in the red belt (Berlusconi is soundly beaten into third place across the region.) Bigger lead in the Camera, but that's still with fairly little in.


Lol Siracusa! Grillo in the lead.

EDIT: Actually he's leading all over the Africa-facing coast of Sicily. Messina seems to be voting for the Left fairly decisively - wtf? Some local issue? I see Crocetta's got his own allied list for the Senate elections and that's pulling votes, but he's... not from Messina.

[minionofmidas]

Right lead in Molise at current: 56 votes.

[minionofmidas]

Inexplicably, the right is up 7 in Campania...

I find it even more inexplicable that Naples province is quite far advanced in their count.

[minionofmidas]

Right lead in Molise at current: 56 votes.

Molise has just 2 seats at the Senate. So it will split 1 to 1 among the top 2.

Ah, right. Now that you mention it... I noticed that two electoral cycles ago.

[minionofmidas]

We have a provincial final result (for Senate).

Pistoia: Left 40.0 (-6.9), Clown 24.6 (-14.1), Troll* 23.4, Right 7.7

*that's five-star troll.

[minionofmidas]

Pd - Svp  should win all Trentino Alto Adige constituencies

With ease. I think they have some equalization mandates there too though - it's not all fptp iirc?

This place still holding out on full turnout figures; only such for both camera and senate.

[minionofmidas]

Genova
Left 35.2 (-11.5), Troll 30.3, Clown 21.5 (-19.0), Right 9.9

Trieste
Left 31.4 (-7.2), Troll 27.1, Clown 25.9 (-19.6), Right 11.0

[minionofmidas]

Is this (posted on the Guardian's liveblog) likely to be reasonably accurate?

Lazio is currently a five point left lead. This will probably get closer, but tipping the right to win it is a daring move. Piemonte, Friuli and Abruzzo are all very much too close to call, though I'm starting to feel cocky about Friuli. I haven't the slightest clue why they're counting the two SVP Alone Senators (as opposed to four Senators elected on joint SVP-PD tickets) for the Monti camp. The rest is evidently correct.

[minionofmidas]

 For the Senate it looks like the city of Turin is almost all in, but not the surronding cities and towns.

You know, I didn't even think of that. The province includes more than just the city. That's huge for Silvio.

Sorry to disappoint you, but Torino's banlieue voted for Veltroni. I'm not going to check everything - huge sh!tload of municipalities in the mountainous part of the province - but Rivoli (37k voters, Veltroni by 8) and Alpignano (13k voters, Veltroni by 5) haven't reported anything at all yet.

[minionofmidas]

Massa-Carrara Left 35.8 (-6.8), Troll 27.7, Clown 24.6 (-14.8), Right 6.8
Though this is in Toscana, Massa-Carrara and Lucca (but Lucca more so than Massa-Carrara, though the Left will win it this year) is the traditionally rightwing pocket of Toscana. I seem to recall there was some sort of explanation for this, but it escapes my memory right now.

Fermo (one of those newfangled provinces that didn't exist yet when I learned the Italian provinces off by heart >:(. In the Marche) Troll 31.1, Left 30.2 (-13.1), Clown 25.2 (-17.1), Right 9.2




Also, a precinct in Argentina has become the first abroad precinct to report! FAIE ahead.

And we have our final official national turnout figure, but only for the Senate: 75.19 (-5.27)

[minionofmidas]

Vallée d'Aoste: Vallée d'Aoste 37.0 Autonomie Liberté & Whatnot 30.8 (that's the more leftwing regional alliance that actually includes the local PD) Troll 20.7 which must be the best result for a national party running without local allies in forty years or so. When I click the previous results button for some reason it gives me those of Südtirol-Trentino.

Asti Clown 32.1 (-20.2) Left 26.8 (-7.1) Troll 25.1 Right 12.6. In Piemonte.

Belluno Clown 28.6 (-22.8) Left 28.0 (-4.4) Troll 23.6 Right 14.3. In Veneto.

Pordenone Clown 33.6 (-20.7) Left 25.8 (-6.8) Troll 24.3 Right 12.4. Of 26 precincts left in FVG 15 are in near-tied Udine and 11 are in leftwing Gorica. However the left's lead is just 2400 votes (0.35 points). I still don't quite dare calling it.

Piacenza Left 32.6 (-3.7) Clown 32.4 (-17.5) Troll 21.4 Right 8.8. The rightwing bit of Emilia.

Parma Left 35.3 (-6.6) Troll 27.3 Clown 23.1 (-17.6) Right 9.9. Just nextdoor but we're on red belt territory now.

Modena Left 44.2 (-7.2) Troll 21.8 Clown 20.5 (-15.0) Right 9.1. Two provinces further east and in the heart of the red belt.

Savona Troll 31.3 Left 29.4 (-9.5) Clown 27.1 (-21.6) Right 9.0. In Liguria.

Lucca Left 32.7 (-7.1) Clown 27.1 (-17.1) Troll 26.8 Right 9.0. Mentioned above.

Prato Left 42.2 (-7.4) Troll 22.7 Clown 22.6 (-13.8) Right 8.4. Whoever had the bright idea, in the 90s, to remove this strip of land near Firenze from Firenze province while keeping the remoter areas with the city?

Final Camera turnout is 75.17 (-5.33). Camera is two-thirds counted by now, but I think I'll stick with the Senate for these province reports.