Mid-Ulster by-election

[minionofmidas]

a) how would seats with the same demographic vote in England/Scotland/Wales (or, for the sake of controversy, the Republic)

That's easy. Most Prots hold their nose and vote FG, with the remainder emigrating or going into terrorism. SF retains much of its support with some bleeding to FF and Labour, and SDLP voters split between FG and Labour. Bottom line, FG completely dominate and SF are solid seconds.

Now someone do a map of Britain with only the Northern Irish Parties standing.

[minionofmidas]

Basil McCrea (Lagan Valley) has gone as well.

And Fred Cobain, though he wasn't reelected to the Assembly in 2011 and anyways joined the DUP.

His reasoning otoh... ‘riven with personal and policy difficulties’,  ‘politically exhausted’, ‘I don’t think they have any new ideas or big ideas‘ is spot on. That party has become entirely useless&pointless.

[minionofmidas]

That's what McCrea intends to do. A sort of second coming of the UPNI, perhaps. You have to wonder what the point would be given that most of the target market now vote Alliance.

None for Westminster, but it could work for maintaining a small caucus in the Assembly. Basically, a party for people who support Alliance's policies but will not abandon the Unionist self-designation. David McClarty was elected as an Independent on such a platform in 2011 of course, presumably he'll be McCrea's first recruit?

[minionofmidas]

Huh. It had never previously occurred to me that "Francie" might conceivably be a man.