German unemployment highest since 1930's

[minionofmidas]

Good Lord... the usual three brain cell discussion about "Europe" and "Socialism"... in a minute Opebo will come along and say that being unemployed is a good thing...

Where's a certain Greenie from Frankfurt when you need him?
Oh well...

Offline.

[minionofmidas]

Being unemployed in Germany is better than being employed in a larger percentage of the jobs in America.

Obviously I'd rather live in a land of free health care

Don't go to Germany then. We have compulsory healthcare, but not free healthcare.

[minionofmidas]

They might count unemployment differently from the US, I'm not sure.

In the US, you can be actively looking for a job, and not be counted as unemployed - and it definitely doesn't count you if you gave up 2 years ago.

They are heavily undercounting in the US, yes.
"and it definitely doesn't count if you gave up 2 years ago" - yeah, that's basically what they've changed here. That used to be true here too. Very basically.

[minionofmidas]

Alcon - it's not possible.
There used to be different types of benefits called
"Arbeitslosengeld" ("Unemployed Money"), "Arbeitslosenhilfe" ("Unemployed Help"), and "Sozialhilfe" ("Social Help", to use the most literal translations I can think of).
Arbeitslosengeld remains unchanged. It is payed for a fixed amount of weeks, is a percentage of your last salary (ah, social benefits to those who don't speaking need them - gotta hate that), and is not to any amount means-tested - these are benefits out of compulsory (except to the self-employed) unemployment insurance.
Arbeitslosenhilfe and Sozialhilfe have been fused now, and are now called "Arbeitslosengeld II". This is welfare. It's not very much (yeah, better than in the US, but still), it's means-tested.
The difference used to be that Arbeitslosenhilfe was payed by the feds, Sozialhilfe by the city or district. The amount was the same, though the Sozialhilfe means testing was somewhat stricter. You also had to prove to be actively looking for a job to be on Arbeitslosenhilfe - but of course, all that could happen to you was get Sozialhilfe instead. They've scrapped that bargage distinction now. Thence anyone theoretically able to work (ie, 15-65, not gravely disabled) who used to be on Sozialhilfe, is now included in the unemployed statistics but wasn't before.
It used to be that you might also be getting some additional Sozialhilfe if you had only a very tiny income...oddly enough that's now also called Arbeitslosengeld II, even though those receiving it are not as it were unemployed. They are not included in the new unemployed statistics though.

[minionofmidas]

I don't suppose it is to difficult to become a citizen, or at least a resident alien in virtually any European country.  Just call the Jordanian, Egyptian, Morrocan, Syrian, or any other Middle-Easern Embassy.  The Arabs have had no problem with swamping Europe for the last several decades.   


But getting back to the unemployment issue.  However you want to massage the unemployment numbers, Schroeder is in deep doo.  He will most likely lose to the CDU/CSU in this Fall's election.  That is part of the reason that his AG is trying to prosecute former members of the Kohl administration.  It takes the heat off of his own mismanagement of Germany's economy. 

Uh...
A German government not down in the polls at this time of the term basically has very little to fear.
And Manfred Kanther is on trial in Hessen, which the CDU rules. The Feds are in no way involved.
Really, man, I wonder where you get your news from.

[minionofmidas]

Being unemployed in Germany is better than being employed in a larger percentage of the jobs in America.

Obviously I'd rather live in a land of free health care

Don't go to Germany then. We have compulsory healthcare, but not free healthcare.

So, are you saying that people without money, such as the unemployed, are allowed to die in the street? 

Nope. HEalth insurance for the unemployed is covered by unemployment benefits.
People like you, though, would have to pay almost as much as in America for their healthcare.

[minionofmidas]

I already told him that that's next year...I don't think he's a listener by temperament.

[minionofmidas]

The FDP hasn´t won a constituency since 1990

...and only one since the mid-1950's.

[minionofmidas]

Yes.

[minionofmidas]

Short answer:
The same way the Tories got seats in the Scottish Parliament in 1999 without winning any constituencies.

Long answer:
Every voter has two votes, Erststimme and Zweitstimme. Zweitstimme is much the more important one. Seats in parliament are awarded to parties proportionally based on their share of Zweitstimmen. All parties which poll over 5% get seats.
Erststimmen are usually only important in determining who exactly gets to represent the parties. The country is divided into 299 constituencies (there are supposed to be 598 seats in parliament). Erststimmen are votes for individual candidates, affiliated to the parties, in these constituencies. Except for Halle an der Saale in 1990, the FDP hasn't won any of these since the 1950's. Until 2002, the Greens had never won any of these. That's what OldEurope and me were referring to.
I said "usually" and "supposed to" because a quirk in the election law leads to CDU and/or SPD usually getting a few extra seats that increase the size of parliament.

[minionofmidas]

You should see polls from last spring, then. These are actually the first polls in ages to show SPD+Greens outpoll CDU+CSU+FDP.
It's highly unusual for a government to be ahead in the polls midterm in Germany. Helmut Kohl was usually trailing during his term in office, too.
Oh, and ignore any Allensbach "poll".

Old Europe was faster than me.

[minionofmidas]

What's wrong with Allensbach?

They got strong ties to the CDU, but that in itself is not a problem. Forsa's got SPD ties.

They only ever do personal interviews, no phone polls. I'm not sure whether that's a bad thing actually, but it may be if taken together with the fact that everyone knows their political affiliation (people tend to attempt to please their interviewer, in personal interviews more so than in phone interviews. Still, beats any internet poll.)

They've been having...er...problems with their weighting formula over the last few years. Especially, they have tended to grotesquely overrepresent the FDP.

They have at times been doing push polls, to be released at tactically well-suited points in time. This was 10-15 years back, though.

They did get the 1998 Bundestag elections almost exactly spot on, I have to grant them that. Their weighting troubles began after that. They were far off in 2002.

[minionofmidas]

Compared with last October, some 650,000 fewer people were out of work, the agency said.

I get mentioned in a press article!