Who has done better with Commissions and Court Maps? (user search)
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  Who has done better with Commissions and Court Maps? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Who has done better with Commissions and Court Maps?  (Read 974 times)
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« on: January 09, 2012, 11:21:52 AM »
« edited: January 09, 2012, 11:27:26 AM by Minion of Midas »

Technically, Rhode Island also has a Commission, though it replaces the two chambers' redistricting committees and its plans need to be approved by the legislature and Governor (besides, its composition is unabashedly partisan. It's an attempt at having your cake and eating it.)
All the safe 7-2 maps of Arizona rely on the VRA districts retrogressing out of the near western suburbs of Phoenix - the very part of these districts (along with Yuma) where block voting and turnout issues are most apparent, in order to swallow the white liberals in Tucson and east central Phoenix. I wouldn't have upheld any of them as a judge. 6-2-1 is very easy, though.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2012, 06:59:06 AM »

Updates for Court Maps and Commission Results:

Strong GOP win
NJ (-1 D, all GOP seats now safe)
That's an overstatement. Win sounds right, though.

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Is it? Compared to the "sanest" possible map, the status quo is actually somewhat favorable to Dems in the Albuquerque seat, and the strange details about the other two don't really matter as long as the broad outline is reasonable, unless odd swings happen (as they can in Little Texas, and did with Teague's election. It's country that hasn't quite given up on Democrats yet even though it usually votes Republican, sort of like many parts of the rural South.)

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Interpretable as (stronger words would be wrong) a mild GOP win, I think.

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Uh... wot?

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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« Reply #2 on: January 17, 2012, 10:52:42 AM »

Of course, the third (a 2010 R pickup and an Obama district) and the eightth (a perennial supermarginal R district) move all the way to safe R (objectively, according to Washington's small swings). And the 1st (and no, I'm pretty sure it's more Republican than the old 2nd even though that was technically swingy and occasionally contested, nevermind open) is the most Republican district that can be drawn up there, unless you cross pathless mountains or carve yet another ugly spike into the 8th that changes the numbers there.
There was no theoretically possible better outcome for Republicans here.
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