Norway Polls (user search)
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Author Topic: Norway Polls  (Read 5323 times)
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« on: July 16, 2011, 02:48:59 PM »

"Marginalized" means something else, Gustaf. Tongue

But indeed, while still always the largest party, usually by comfortable margins and (in so far as there is such a thing, in Norway or anywhere) the natural party of government*, they are far from having been in power continuously, and tend to marginally lose votes at every election.

There have been non-Labour-led governments in 1963 (failed after one month), 1965-71, 72-3, 83-6, 89-90, 97-2000 and 2001-5.

*Why that is so? Why, because the bourgeoisie is splintered into several parties. As everywhere in Scandinavia, though details differ from country to country.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2011, 03:52:50 AM »

They did win only due to quirks of the system, as I recall though (they actually lost the popular vote, but Norway has a very weird electoral system).
No.

Oh, you meant the coalition of Social Democrats, Socialists and Centre versus one of all four opposition parties (formation of which would have been quite difficult). Yes actually, but the "quirk" consists of the Liberals dropping below the threshold for national representation (though saving two constituency seats).
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2011, 04:43:45 AM »

Norway's system regarding constituencies's seat numbers is a work of genius, really. If your goal is presenting a clear constituency link and somewhat overrepresenting remote rural locales (done in a lot of countries, remember, more usually using some random cutoff) without distorting party strengths too badly, not much can be done to improve it.
Constituencies are allotted a number of seats based on their population and area (basically, a square kilometer is treated as a person). But the number of seats filled based on constituency results is one fewer than the total number of seats in the constituency; the remaining seats are distributed nationally as equalization seats (with a threshold), then reattributed to the parties' constituency lists based on priority. The last few individual MPs will be elected somewhat at random. As a result, thinly-populated areas are overrepresented without also overrepresenting their parties of choice.
Evidently, as in every system (that is not Hare; IIRC Norway uses Ste Lague) that distributes seats by constituencies rather than nationally, large parties are somewhat overrepresented; and there really is only one large party in Norway. Hoyre and Fremskritt are about large enough to not be underrepresented, that's it. And there aren't quite enough equalization mandates around to fix that; you could improve the system in that respect. But the effect is not huge; only very marginally larger than in Sweden. Incidentally, the more parties narrowly cross the threshold, the worse the effect is going to be as they'll all be depending on equalization seats.

But yeah, when elections are routinely close, every little bit of systemic distortion is a problem. And that does seem to be the case in Norway at the moment.

Now, back to topic. Fremskritt and the children. Grin
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« Reply #3 on: July 23, 2011, 05:53:14 AM »

"Christian Fundamentalist" now? Bizarre.
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