Canada 2011 Predictions... if you dare

[minionofmidas]

I shall not dare.

[minionofmidas]

I was ~~surprised~~ by the TOTAL collapse of the Bloq..  I assumed the newness of the NDP to the province versus the established organization strength of the Bloq + PQ would allow the Blow to hold on to 25 ish seats... I was wrong...

The projected NDP vote gains were beyond the point where such considerations tend to be valid. At these kind of figures, much of that established organization strength got out the vote for the NDP or not at all, and anyways voted NDP.

[minionofmidas]

That depends on the area largely. The Democrats won lots of seats in 2008 for example that they could've never won without Obama's strong organization.

Nowhere near as large a wave.

[minionofmidas]

There is such a thing as voters making up their mind to desert one party for another during an election campaign, rather than at some point in between two elections, for the simple reason that that's the one time they actually need to think about it.