Spanish General Election 2011

[minionofmidas]

Wow, you count fast. Some provinces over half in already. Only one vote, I know - but are you using paper ballots?

[minionofmidas]

So... it's looking possible that PP might have failed to win a majority. Obviously, they'll be able to govern, but I'd still claim victory if they drop one seat further.

[minionofmidas]

were are the smileys?

You need to type the code.

There's a list over in the "how to" subboard somewhere...

[minionofmidas]

were are the smileys?

You need to type the code.

There's a list over in the "how to" subboard somewhere...

thanks


(i dont find the list but's not important)



@Branson : congratulations for your predicts, but historically, PP winning al-andalus, that' a real shock !

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=23821.15

Some more were added after that, though, including > + : + D = and ^ + - + ^ =
but I can't find the full list of the additions.

[minionofmidas]

Ouch, PP went up nine seats since I last updated.

Part of it is that they didn't have any results from the Canarias before.

[minionofmidas]

There is one party (CC-NC-PNC) that has only 615 votes so far but 3 seats ?

What's up with that ?

Canaries regional party. They're at, what, 1.4% reporting. And that's with the vote tally up to 2000.

[minionofmidas]

What's Amaiur ?

7 seats out of nowhere ...

Not out of nowhere, no.

[minionofmidas]

Your guide is too long.

[minionofmidas]

67% in now. Looking pretty stable at ~187 to ~109. ~71% turnout.

[minionofmidas]

Is the Amaiur victory related to the success of Bildu?

You bet. They're one and the same.

This sadly all proves that nobody on here reads my blog though!

But should you make municipal maps of the more interesting provinces, I want to see them.

[minionofmidas]

This is why you guys should all take more of an interest in economics. Economics dominates politics, election-wise.

With that being said, I'm going to say the opposite of what I said with Italy, because I want to look like a sage it's what I think: this could end up being good news, even if you oppose PP. Why? Because your bets are hedged. The PP will have a strong majority & mandate to do everything asked of it by the EU. Germany will not be able to say Spain did not put forward a strong effort, the ECB will not be able to say Spain did not try to reform itself.

Of course we can! We must never let facts intrude upon our worldview.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Rajoy.

[minionofmidas]

It's like their reluctant to add those last two precincts or so missing in Alava, just so no province is in completely. They've been at 99.4% counting for quite a while.

[minionofmidas]

If Sevilla could just go to the PP and Barcelona to the CiU, the map would look great ... !

WHAT?

As in, clean. Tidy. Of course, that one last plodge of red in Sevilla must (and will, safe to say now) remain. Barcelona might happen yet, I suppose, depending where the final precincts are.

[minionofmidas]

If Sevilla could just go to the PP and Barcelona to the CiU, the map would look great ... !

WHAT?

As in, clean. Tidy. Of course, that one last plodge of red in Sevilla must (and will, safe to say now) remain. Barcelona might happen yet, I suppose, depending where the final precincts are.

the map is dirty, only sevilla and barcelona are clean.

This. Is. About. Aesthetics.

[minionofmidas]

Alava wholly in now.

PP 27.2, PSOE 23.4, Amaiur 19.1, PNV 18.9. Seat each.

Would be the same with Ste Lague or Hare.

PP wins 22 municipalities, PNV 19, Amaiur 10. PSOE none.
Lots of tiny mountain villages for the Basque parties, obviously, but PSOE aren't overperforming that much in the main city of Gasteiz - two points, just like PP.

[minionofmidas]

Meanwhile in hell, the generalissimo is celebrating.

I'm not sure he's content with the current official policies of the PP, though.

[minionofmidas]

8%

PP 175
PSOE 110
CiU 17
IU 11
Amaiur 6
PNV 5
ERC 3
UPYD 3
PRC 1
Compromis 1
BNG 2
FAC 1

Any chance of the Greens getting a seat, or is that impossible at this point?

Does Compromis count? I suppose the Valencian regionalists are the main partner in the alliance, but the Greens are a member...

Anyway, in a light of recent weeks... are Poles the only ones in Europe who doesn't wish to topple an incumbent government?

I feel bizarre.

That's because you are.

[minionofmidas]

Under 30% in what is (outside certain places) as pure a two-party system as can be found? That's... absolutely terrible.

Not under 30% outside those certain places though.

[minionofmidas]

So the second wholly-in province is La Rioja. Must be something in the Ebro's water.

PP 54.7 (+5.2) 3 (+1)
PSOE 31.1 (-12.5) 1 (-1)
6% for UPyD, 4.6% for IU. Would be 3-1 under Ste Lague, 2-1-1 under Largest Remainder.

[minionofmidas]

Albacete

PP 55.1 (+7.7) 3 (+1)
PSOE 30.1 (-15.6) 1 (-1)
IU 6.2, UPyD 5.0

Why can't Spain be Tunisia? We'd be seeing huge IU and UPyD groups in the next Cortes.

[minionofmidas]

What are the current national results?

http://www.generales2011.mir.es/99CG/DCG99999TO_L1.htm

[minionofmidas]

Two more and then I'll go to bed.

Castellón
PP 52.9 (+3.9)
PSOE 29.5 (-14.7)
which hilariously doesn't change the 3-2 seat distribution.

IU 5.3, UPyD 4.0, Compromis 4.0

which would actually result in the same seat distribution under Largest Remainder.

Palencia

PP 55.2 (+5.5)
PSOE 31.3 (-12.3)

Again, unchanged seat distribution as it's one of those interior threeseaters. IU 5.9, UPyD 4.4.

[minionofmidas]

I actually have asked this question once in the past (and gotten no answer)... why is the city of Cordoba relatively right-wing, voting for PP in 2008? Sevilla is totally different.

[minionofmidas]

What's the tan in Nafarroa?

[minionofmidas]

It's in the same places in 2008 though.