US House Redistricting: Texas

[minionofmidas]

Lewis, what did you have in mind with your query?

What query?

You mean "see what they did there?" Extending the 23rd into more densely built up parts of San Antonio explains why it became marginally more Democratic overall despite the changes to it elsewhere being helpful to Canseco.
It also means the district remains much more Bexar-y than it looks like at first glance.

[minionofmidas]

Canseco carried the part of Bexar County that was moved into TX-23 by 75% margin. 

Something's wrong here. "TX-21" instead of "TX-23"?

[minionofmidas]

The Canseco and State plans had a higher HCVAP (58.5%) than that drawn by the court.  The court put more blacks into the district and swapped out some more Republican Anglos in NW Bexar for more Democratic Anglos in west central San Antonio.

The legislature increased the HCVAP from that in the current district.

And as the court rightfully pointed out for the umpteenth time, this is not a valid argument, at least not in and of itself...

Ahem. A question and an observation.
Observation: Giving everybody a safe seat, splitting the new districts two-and-two and making sure they're not competitive. You can't give Canseco one, legally, so you at least give him a seat that's no worse than before - though it would have been very very easy to do so - and to treat the 23rd as just another Dem-reserved seat. Or maybe they just read LULAC vs Perry as mandating a marginal seat here. -_- Compensating his accidency Mr Farenthold for the fact that you treat his district as a Dem seat by making sure he lands in one of the new districts, taking the Legislature's plan as a blueprint even though that's far from the ideal place for the new district. But then you can't really put the new district where it logically belongs because of the residences of both Carter and McCaul. So, yeah. Bottomline. This looks like a bipartisan compromise map, not like a court map. It also looks not too unlike a non-greedy Republican map, actually - given population trends around Austin and its proximity to the VAP seats, giving up on Doggett is the sane thing to do, and the court positively packed him in.
And that is why it's such an odd map.
Makes you wonder what could have been without Ortiz' and Rodriguez' defeats...

Oh, and the question. Just for McCaul's and Canseco's precise residence. And ideally Sessions' and Hensarling's too...

[minionofmidas]

Canseco carried the part of Bexar County that was moved into TX-23 by 75% margin. 

Something's wrong here. "TX-21" instead of "TX-23"?

Yes.

The area is, of course, heavily Anglo and doesn't belong in the district really.
I believe it's "always" (ie, before 2004, and also before 2002) been in it, though.

[minionofmidas]

56% of the growth in Collin, Denton, and Rockwall was minorities.  That is where the new district should have been placed.

Yeah, going purely by least transfer the new DFW district needs to go on the eastern side. Same with the new Southeast Texas district.
But then again, the new Central Texas Anglo district would logically be built around Williamson and North Travis... oops.

It was moved into the district in 1991 by Martin Frost and Ann Richards.  The southern part of Bexar County was placed in the new TX-28.

So "always" in the sense of "in all maps that still influence the current map of the area".

[minionofmidas]

See that odd little finger in TX-23 that goes across the top of TX-20.  Guess who lives in the tip of the finger.  So the court moved Canseco's residence barely into TX-23 (he currently lives in TX-21), but moved a good chunk of his constituents into TX-21.

Now looking at the districts on the lege council's redistricting web site.  Use the current district as the base plan and the interim map as the overlay.  TX-20 is only 13,000 from the ideal population, so it really doesn't need much change.

But because TX-23 was pushed in on the west side, TX-20 had to expand.  This was mostly to the north and widening of the eastern arm of the district.  But it also took in a very small are of TX-23 to the northwest.   Guess who lives in that very small area?  Joaquin Castro.

So the court issues its map; Castro talks to Gonzalez; Gonzalez announces his retirement; and Castro announces that he is going to run in the district that the court had barely drawn him into

The fix was in, the fix was in. Bipartisan gerry basically,as I said. Any public word previously that Gonzalez was thinking about retiring - I only know that none reached me.
The expansion of TX-20 do a reasonably good job of removing the last minority areas from Lamar Smith's district, of course. (Not that he needs it or anything, but, you know.)

The bizarre boundary of TX-10 is of course in part because it's a leftover from the 2004 carveup of Austin - the part that didn't get changed in 2006. Now that I think of it... McCaul's residence may have had something to do with that...

[minionofmidas]

Canseco is barely, barely on the finger tip of TX-23.  He currently lives in TX-21, and the legislature had drawn a finger tip down from the north (since it had expanded TX-20 northward to make room for the new San Antonio-Austin district).

Fun fact: They added three precincts there (in the court map, not sure how different the lege map was in this area).
SW to NE:
3113, 54% Hispanic, 33% White, 64% Obama
3112, 52% Hispanic, 38% White, 55% Obama
3115, 66% White, 28% Hispanic, 65% McCain

Railroad tracks between 3115 (and one other precinct that stayed in TX-23, and most of the area shifted out) and 3112 (and the remainder of TX-23, well its Bexar portion at any rate).
Somehow I'd be surprised to hear that 3115 is not Canseco's home precinct.

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By White Rock Lake?

My issue was mostly. I have a map that basically went through three steps: Step 1, just draw the new districts basically where they "ought" to go, except I drew the DFW one as a W Denver County/Arlington Hispanic opportunity seat, and eliminated some bizarre county splits. Step 2, amend some features that bug me about map 1, mostly taken over from before but some new. I forgot to save this step. Step 3, rectify that map to at least put everybody in their home district. This took some major redrawings compared to Step 2, and is as yet in progress as I needed this info. (I also don't know where Doggett lives, but as long as there is a Travis-based Anglo-winnable Democratic district, he'll just move and be fine, so no bother.) Many thanks!

McCaul lives in the hook at the tip of the current TX-10 in the only part of the district that is south of the Colorado River.
[/quote]Ugh. That makes things hard. Only one precinct btw (seeing as they cut back the other one.) Quite the Republican enclave, btw, what's up with that?

[minionofmidas]

56% of the growth in Collin, Denton, and Rockwall was minorities.  That is where the new district should have been placed.

Yeah, going purely by least transfer the new DFW district needs to go on the eastern side. Same with the new Southeast Texas district.
But then again, the new Central Texas Anglo district would logically be built around Williamson and North Travis... oops.

It was moved into the district in 1991 by Martin Frost and Ann Richards.  The southern part of Bexar County was placed in the new TX-28.

So "always" in the sense of "in all maps that still influence the current map of the area".

I actually drew that exactly in my least change map. It ends up being highly desirable in Dallas and highly undesirable in Austin; Austin obviously needs to either be in 1 district or 5. 2 is highly undesirable and yields 2 Dem districts.

And that's only half of it... you're pitting two Republican incumbents against each other in a Democratic district.

Yeah, I rigged it to ensure the new "southern" district is Hispanic. This led to Doggett's rural parts being split off and going into the "new" Central Texas district, which turned out highly marginal rather than clearly Dem as a result.

[minionofmidas]

I just checked what the maximum Dempack district in Austin is... 75%. I'm impressed. It's Hispanic plurality, btw (but not on VAP... presumably Anglo majority CVAP.)

[minionofmidas]

I assume you mean Dallas County, and not Denver City or Denver Harbor, Texas.

Quite.

[minionofmidas]

So I abandoned the map talked about here and drew two different ones.

One, maximizing the number of safely Democratic minority districts (14 - 7 in the South and up to Austin, 4 in Houston, 2 in Dallas and 1 in Tarrant) and drawing the remainder fairly (which results in only one further Democratic district in Austin, of course).
The other, based on that but going back to something closer the status quo in minority districts, in order to create an 18-18 map that ought to stand in court. 18-18 in presidential terms that is, and given trends in the places where the most marginal districts are, in terms of representation by the end of the decade. One district certainly, and possibly several others, is still good for a few years of Republican congressional victories.


21-15 Plan



Inserts







and cause it's snipped from the bottom of the map

[minionofmidas]

1 rural/exurban northwest. Open (Hall is from Rockwall) 75-12-11 (white, hispanic, black. Total. VAP in brackets where relevant.), 70.9% McCain2 Gohmert's district basically; loses Lufkin though. 65-15-17, 69.8% McCain
3 bit of an oddball remainder of East Texas district, open. 70-13-15. 70.0% McCain
4 Montgomery with Bryan. Brady, Flores. 67-22-6, 73.3% McCain
5 far northern Harris Republican remnants, with part of Liberty. Poe, I think - he lives in Humble, which is diversifying rapidly and split between districts, so it's possible I drew him into the Black district. 59-22-11, 70.0% McCain
6 Beaumont, Galveston, SE Harris County. Open. 54-21-19, 58.0% McCain
7 East Harris Hispanics. Gene Green? (No idea what part of his district he is from and which new district he would run for) 19-67-11 (23-62-11), 55.9% Obama
8 Harris Black sink. Connected through the north now, which actually makes sense to do (or would if it didn't force the Hispanic bisection). Jackson-Lee I suppose. 14-34-47 (16-30-48). 81.4% Obama
9 West Harris Hispanics (light blue). See 7. 20-63-10 (24-58-11), 56.0% Obama
10 West Harris Whites (hot pink). Culberson(?) 51-27-11, 59.9% McCain
11 Harris/Fort Bend coalition district. Al Green. 23-30-30-15 Asian (26-27-30-16). 64.7% Obama
12 Fort Bend/Brazoria/West Galveston. Paul, Olsen (unless his home is in the asian sections of Sugarland, which are mostly removed into the 11th). 54-24-11, 65.8% McCain
13 Rural district (with furthest ends of several metros) centered around Victoria. Open. 56-34-8, 65.7% McCain
14 An I-57 district. Open, thanks to Ortiz' and Ciro's defeats who would I think have been paired here. 23-71 (27-68), 56.2% Obama
15 Cameron to White sections of Corpus (proud of that gerry!) Farenthold I presume, not that he'd want it. 15-82 (19-79), 60.6% Obama
16 A purely Rio Grande Valley district for Hinojosa. Any fairish map will have one. 8-91 (10-88), 69.5% Obama
17 Trans-Pecos paired with Laredo. Makes more sense than with San Antonio imo. Cuellar. 12-86 (14-84), 63.0% Obama
18 El Paso. Reyes. 15-80 (17-78), 65.4% Obama
19 Central San Antonio. Moved northwest a little. Rodriguez (presumably), Canseco (heh). Castro I think as well, might be in the 21st. 21-70-5, 61.0% Obama
20 East San Antonio, San Marcos, East Austin. Wide open. 27-56-14 (32-50-14, barely over). 66.6% Obama
21 White parts of Bexar, with adjoining areas. Smith. 62-29, 64.7% McCain
22 Travis County White district. Doggett, McCaul. 64-21-6, 61.2% Obama
23 Williamson and Bell. Carter. 57-23-12, 55.2% McCain
24 Rural district with Waco as population centre. Open (Flores represents a lot of it and is drawn into Brady's district, so I guess he might run here) 68-20-9, 69.1% McCain
25 Parker, West and North Tarrant. Not sure if Granger lives in it (possibly not), but she ought to run here. 74-16, 70.1% McCain
26 Southeast Tarrant, Ellis, Johnson. Barton. 60-20-13. 62.5% McCain
27 Tarrant County coalition district. Open(?). We know who wants it, not as Black as what the court drew him though since this version is more Fort Worth based. 33-41-21 (39-35-21). 59.3% Obama
28 Denton County. Burgess. 65-18-8. 63.0% McCain
29 North Dallas County (and parts of Tarrant). Chock full with Republican congressmen, and it's not even all that Republican: Marchant, Sessions, Hensarling. 59-21-10. 56.7% McCain.
30 Hispanic Dallas County district. Open. 20-63-13 (25-57-14). 63.4% Obama.
31 Black Dallas County district. Eddie Bernice. 21-32-45 (25-28-45). 75.5% Obama
32 Northeast Dallas County and outwards. Bit unfortunate shape as I avoided splitting Plano. Hall. Might get primaried, I suppose. 54-24-12, 60.6% McCain
33 Plano with Grayson County. Sam Johnson. 66-14-8, 63.7% McCain
34 Amarillo, Wichita Falls. Thornberry. 67-24-5, 77.5% McCain
35 Lubbock, Abilene. Neugebauer. 59-32-6, 72.1% McCain
36 Permian, San Angelo, Hill Country. Conaway. 57-38, 75.7% McCain

[minionofmidas]

And now for the gerrymander.



Inserts

[minionofmidas]

1, 2, 3 not changed
4 Had to snip part of Montgomery to keep 5 contiguous. 67-21-7, 73.3% McCain
5 Pretty unlikely that Poe still lives in it, pretty unlikely that he wouldn't just move. 60-23-10, 70.2% McCain
6 Heh. Crawling as it is, there's a definite oil port CoI vibe to it. Well, except for the Houston proper bit. That's a gerrymander. Open coalition district, would elect a white though. 33-43-20 (37-38-20), 52.7% Obama
7 Yeah, I eliminated the district entirely, redrew it somewhere else, and was to lazy to renumber. All of Fort Bend County, with likeliest parts of Brazoria and Harris to improve Democratic performance. Olsen, and if he's careful he'll be reelected for the time being. 34-24-24-16 Asian (37-22-23-17), 51.2% Obama
8 Still the Houston Black sink. Now in Y shape, Jackson-Lee presumably. 21-31-42 (24-27-42), 79.2% Obama
9 Gene Green district. Loses Baytown because I need that for the 6th, gains more mixed areas (with Blacks and Whites) to the north. 14-66-18 (17-62-18), 65.8% Obama
10 West Harris. Somehow managed to make this much less White while improving its Republican performance. 46-30-12-10 Asian (VAP majority still though). 62.1% McCain
11 Shifted north, Whiter, much more Hispanic and a lot less Black than before. Al Green would never have captured this in the first place, not sure how he'd fare in it. 25-47-16-11 Asian (29-43-16-12), 54.5% Obama.
12 Brazoria, Suburban Galveston County. Paul. 61-26-7, 68.6% McCain
13 Loses marginal and Demifying Bastrop, shifts north as a result. 57-33-9, 66.8% McCain
14 to 18 not changed
19 marginal amendments forced by adherence to county boundaries for 21. Doesn't affect residences I believe. 70-21-5 (66-25-6), 61.0% Obama.
20 ditto. 27-55-14 (33-50-14, just under now. Presumably fixable if considered an issue.) Still 66.6% Obama.
21 loses Hays portion, regains Kerrville etc. Smith. 62-29, 66.7% McCain
22 Travis dominated district, with Killeen upended on it. Doggett, McCaul. 65-19-8, 56.6% Obama.
23 Most of Williamson, northeast Travis, Bastrop. Carter. Might be able to hold on, can't like trends though. 57-26-8, 53.0% Obama
24 Picks up Temple and stuff. Still open. 66-20-10, 67.2% McCain
25 Loses the Southwestern part of Tarrant and a few precincts around Fort Worth, gains in the north of the county. Granger? 76-15. 70.8% McCain.
26 Frees a few Obamaish precincts in Arlington. Picks up in southwest Tarrant. Barton. 61-20-13, 63.0% McCain
27 Even more specifically a Fort Worth district now. Open(?) 39-37-19 (45-32-19). 54.9% Obama
28 Denton County, now taking in Coppell instead of parts in Tarrant. Burgess, Marchant (unless he lives in one of those two precincts cut for population balance). 65-18-8. 62.5% McCain (so marginally less packed as a result)
29 North Dallas (North Central Dallas County). Sessions, Hensarling. Would it fall straight away? 41-39-15 (46-34-15). 53.4% Obama.
30 Middle suburbs, West Dallas. Reminds me of Frost's old district. Open, and safe D. 27-50-14 (32-45-14). 56.1% Obama.
31 Still the Eddie Bernice district. 23-30-44 (27-25-44), 73.0% Obama
32 Lost in the south, gained in the west. Hall. 55-25-10, 61.3% McCain.
33-35 not changed
36 Changes in the Hill Country. 57-37, 76.2% McCain

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, I also noticed that I may have drawn Al Green into the western Hispanic district in the first map.

[minionofmidas]

I do note the SC says the state's plan for DFL "appear to be subject to strong challenges in the §5 proceeding" and the district court was right in not following it. Then they say the district court oughtn't to have drawn a coalition district on purpose. Doesn't that mean they ought to have drawn the (possible) Hispanic-majority district instead? It happens to be far more disruptive to the existing GOP gerrymander...

[minionofmidas]

Stress on "coalition", baby.

The previous sentence there is pretty clear. You can't draw districts the way you want without making findings of wrongdoing with the state's districts

unless they reflect aspects of the state plan thatstand a reasonable probability of failing to gain §5 preclearance. And by “reasonable probability” this Court means in this context that the §5 challenge is not insubstantial.

That's a far cry from the Catch-22 you seem to want... and that would render any overturning the VRA moot as the VRA would be effectively irrelevant anyways.

[minionofmidas]

So will the final TX map be better or worse for Democrats than the original legis. plan?

Better. Or possibly (worst case) same; better for some particular San Antonio Democrats and worse for others. Or it will, in fact, be the original legis. plan; that is still possible.

So will the final TX map be better or worse for Democrats than the original legis. plan? (I assume worse than the court-drawn map.)

The joke is that not even that is clear.
Which in a way is unsurprising given how good that map still was for Republicans.

[minionofmidas]

In any case, the DC circuit preclearance trial will certainly be appealed up the ladder shortly.

Quite. Absolutely. And whatever the SC will rule, it will once again evade a clear answer on the core issues at hand.

I do note the SC says the state's plan for DFL "appear to be subject to strong challenges in the §5 proceeding" and the district court was right in not following it. Then they say the district court oughtn't to have drawn a coalition district on purpose. Doesn't that mean they ought to have drawn the (possible) Hispanic-majority district instead? It happens to be far more disruptive to the existing GOP gerrymander...

The SA district court should just wait for the DC court to issue its ruling.

The Supreme Court doesn't seem to think so. It seems they (ie, this is what they could all agree on) just bitchslapped the San Antonio court for playing intrapartisan power games. Which I guess I approve of.

[minionofmidas]

Probably just checking to see if Dems might go for an Ohio style "deal".

[minionofmidas]

Okay... what are the election figures on the 23rd?

Wait... Farenthold gets to be 25 now? The Paul district is that from the court plan? The 6th and 17th go into Austin now so that there is no open R seat that Doggett could have theoretically run in (but chose not to), as under the state's original map? All of these so they can somehow create two new districts in the DFW? Castro continues to run in the 20th amiright - so the Hispanic 35th would be a, what, Doggett vs Ciro race? Cannot see it, somehow. The new Dem seat is of course far more Tarranty than would have been necessary for creating it... because that way it doesn't impact on the North Dallas Republicans as much. Mark Veasey remains a possibility for it, I think.
D+2 R+2* could have been achieved with an infinitely cleaner map... but that would have stepped on more (non-Doggett) incumbent's toes.

*Based on current incumbents, R+3 D+1 on usual leans, assuming Canseco's remains a tossup. The new districts are two D, three R. One D seat is abolished. One notional D seat held by an R is changed so that it cannot happen again. Anyways, not really an Ohio style "deal" but an actual deal - bagging the Dems an extra seat.

[minionofmidas]

Oh, I was looking at C216. Apparently C226 is the one to look at?

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, just playing with the overlay feature. There are minorish changes to the 20th/23rd and 23rd/28th boundary; the latter removing the splits of Maverick and Atascosa. (I wonder whether these changes marginally affect the partisan balance in the D favor? A direct full nonrounded comparison of presidential figures for old 23rd, lege plan 23rd, this 23rd, and maybe the Court's 23rd is what I'd like to see.)
There's also a confusing array of mostly very minor changes in Harris, Ft Bend, Brazoria and Galveston, affecting all districts but the 8th and 10th.
The rest of the change is all Dallas/Tarrant, with minor change to the 30th and 32nd, sizable & reasonable change to the 26th, and massive changes to the 6th and 12th (and 33nd, duh, which has very little overlap with the original version)... while the 24th, 5th and 3rd are actually not changed at all.

[minionofmidas]

Good enough on TX23, then. (Both good enough on info and good enough on what the numbers are, ie didn't sell out on that.)

Obviously a "fair" design would create a Black and a Hispanic seat in Dallas County and a coalition district in Tarrant (and force one of the three North Dallas Republicans into retirement) but that was never a likely outcome anyhow.

[minionofmidas]

Can someone explain to me how precedent does not rule the removal of all of Nueces (as opposed to just the Anglo portion) an illegal retrogression?
Now, I understand it was done because it helps insulate Farenthold in the primary and cook the new 34rd for someone from elsewhere (who's the likely new Democrat here and where's he from - Cameron I suppose?) but what I'd like to know is what would the minimal necessary changes be to undo it? Basically, put the solidly Hispanic areas of Nueces into the 34th, bring the 27th up to population with areas included in the Hispanic districts that are not Hispanic and/or were not included in VRA districts previously; how much do you need to change exactly?