US House Redistricting: New York

[minionofmidas]

1. Splitting the Buffalo metro. No. One district for Buffalo and its immediate suburbs, as well as Niagara Falls, and one district for Buffalo exurbs and the Southern Tier conservatives.

You're splitting the Buffalo Metro no matter what, of course. But yeah, the map you show is the two western districts as I drew them at first.

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That can be very easily done.

This would be my counterproposal. Not a big fan of the area between Albany and Utica, but something strange has to happen there. Could swap Delaware County for Fulton/Montgomery, I suppose.

That would be an improvement. Would need to check how it comes out figurewise. There remains the issue of Rome... surely Rome and Utica belong together? What are the partisan stats on your map? (Also, why the hell did you amend the northern boundary of the 17th and 18th districts, forcing the 18th to take in a little piece on the other bank of the Hudson? )

[minionofmidas]

'kay, here's the reworked upstate, rather like Verily's but not quite.



19th (Hudson Valley) 84% White. 54.4% Obama. Maurice Hinchey, Chris Gibson.
Can Hinchey hold this? It should probably elect a generic Democrat, but Hinchey is no generic Democrat.
20th (Albany) 80% White. 58.3% Obama. Paul Tonko.
Back up to Saratoga, but Tonko is still in as he's from Rotterdam.
21st (Saint Lawrence & Mohawk Valley) 92% White. 51.0% Obama. Bill Owens.
Regains Watertown, but not Oswego.
22nd (babyshit brown) 87% White. 53.2% Obama. Richard Hanna.
Now combines Binghampton and Ithaca (but not Elmira) with Rome and Utica. Swingy until/unless an incumbent digs in. Hanna's home is just barely inside the district.
23rd (Syracuse with Oswego and Auburn) 84% White. 56.4% Obama. Ann Marie Buerkle
Might be too Democratic now for Buerkle to hold.
24th (West Central) 92% White. 52.9% McCain. Tom Reed
Quite safe here.
25th (Rochester) 72% White, 15% Black. 58.7% Obama. Louise Slaughter.
Nothing to see here.
26th (Niagara, Outer Erie, Chautauqua) 90% White. 52.8% McCain. Open.
Hochul would run here (she's just inside the Buffalo seat), but it's a prime Republican target.
27th (Buffalo) 73% White, 16% Black. 62.4% Obama. Brian Higgins, Kathy Hochul.
The compact Buffalo district I drew at first that works just fine.

(hits post) Ah, you beat me. Quite similar now.

[minionofmidas]

It's not a tiny part population-wise. And I think it makes perfect sense to draw Troy with Albany.

The bit of Herkimer, similarly, is (in my map) a single township (Schuyler) whose population is mostly just outside of Utica though the area extends well eastward.
I never get what people mean with the "preserving transit links" argument... does the drive along I-88 somehow become impossible or take one second longer because it crosses a district line? Or are we talking of Sidney's transit links? If the town is politically in Delaware County but looks to its neighbors along the interstate as a Community of Interest, then that would make sense.

[minionofmidas]

Well, if Turner bags Weprin, and assuming the Pubbies are willing to push NY-03 into the lean GOP column from reasonably safe, and make that worthless creature and one-time IRA symp Peter King work harder

and assuming that the sun rotates around the moon....

[minionofmidas]

No, just 12 years old or fairly insular and not that bright.

I don't see how anyone can doubt he's from the place and community he posts about.

[minionofmidas]

Meh.

[minionofmidas]

Where did Velazquez' district go, Torie?

[minionofmidas]

That's Crowley's district, Torie. If he gets challenged there, it's from the Bronx. It's not as if you're getting Crowley a majority white seat anyhow.
If a court draws the lines, it goes by legislative intent. That means it will view and treat the 12th as a protected district... even though it's not majority Hispanic, by the way. The 9th, not protected, in between everything, barely more contiguous than the outrageous 12th, doesn't stand a chance in that setting.

[minionofmidas]

OK muon2, but I suspect the NY state judges in 2001 with their map didn't go down that road, although there have been court cases since of course.  I  am quite sure the CD I drew is legal from a VRA standpoint. There is no requirement to create an erose mess at these percentages. In any event, if it needs to be higher for whatever reason, the fix is to swap precincts between NY-15 and NY-06 as I mentioned above.  That is a relatively non erose and community of interest way to do it.  I bet however the Hispanics won't be pushing to do that, and I doubt Velaquez wants a lot of strange new territory anyway, unless perhaps from next door NY-15.

But, strange territory is exactly what you've given Velazquez. I don't think your CD-06 has any of her current district.

Looks like a fistful of Queens precincts.

[minionofmidas]

So yes, I did have Crowley and Velaquez swap CD's literally.

Lol, nothing of the kind. You were just setting up Velazquez a primary against a worthless weak incumbent... in a district drawn so that she might conceivably lose. The incumbent being Maloney.

You don't need 60% or even over 50% Hispanic in New York city by the way... provided that the remainder is atomized. (Except in trying to prove that one more district than the state is willing to draw must be drawn, but we're talking about either a court-drawn or a compromise map here.) A 45% Hispanic, 20% White, 15% Asian, 15% Black seat is an utterly safe Hispanic seat.

The bottom line is this, Torie. Forget this first draft existed. Go back to the drawing board. Start with bringing the minority-held districts up to population without changing their composition far to the adverse. Then do 4 Long Island seats, without bringing King's share down, with McCarthy's extending into New York City. Then draw what you have to from what's left. That's what a court would actually feel it had little choice but to do.

[minionofmidas]

It has nothing to do with Hispanic districts, but it has everything to do with simulating a reasonably likely outcome. (I'm not saying you absolutely can't move any of Nassau into Meeks' district, which is why I said to draw the minority seats first. But use as little as you feel possible and then excise another five precincts.)

[minionofmidas]

You still don't get it, do you? You're not drawing a partisan gerrymander that doesn't fail any of the (in minority-heavy areas, many, in others, none) explicit constitutional hurdles for them. You're drawing either half of a compromise map nobody of import will sue against, or a court-drawn map (that would have to pass some sort of SC scrutiny... but really just checking whether it's not outrageously partisan.) 50.1% is not as important as avoiding the creation of additional snakes. Not where the remainder is fractured.
And going into Nassau (except possibly heavily Black areas directly bordering heavily Black areas in Queens; even that, preferrably not though yeah, I know what the numbers look like, so probably it will happen) will feel like a snake to New Yorkers and Long Islanders even if it doesn't look it.

In Ohio, if R's were going to pass a disgusting map they had to do the black snake to Akron. That's not because the law actually demanded it - the law as its interpretation now stands technically doesn't demand any Black seat in Ohio at all: Any seat that stays in Cuyahoga fails the Gingles test because it's under 50.1 and any that head out to Akron fail the Gingles test because they do not represent a community of interest. Catch-22. It's because D's were going to use any easyish tangent to sue against an R gerrymander, and its existence puts the them in the Catch. These considerations don't apply here. One consideration does apply both here and in Ohio: the map doesn't need to be precleared.

[minionofmidas]

I agree that appending Akron to Cleveland is probably not legally necessary, but that is not for certain, and appending it eliminates a legal risk, albeit perhaps not a huge one. I so posted elsewhere.

Not just "not legally necessary" - it would not have been seriously considered in case of a court-drawn or compromise-drawn map. As sure to not happen as it was sure to happen in the actual circumstances.

I just expounded on the situation for contrast. None of these kind of tactical questions pertain to what you are (claiming to be) drawing here.
Then it got too long.

Anyways, going into Nassau is going to feel unnatural to people. It is going to be perceived as, at least somewhat, snaking even if it is not. And it is going to actually be snaking long before it starts to look like a snake at first glance - before the length you went to on your first draft, for instance, or so I think. I may not be entirely right here, but, basically, just bear in mind that Nassau Blacks are to be used with caution because that will be the case if at least one of the decision-making folks is from the geographical island of Long Island.

[minionofmidas]

It won't look like that, either.

[minionofmidas]

Be that as it

OK. Thanks Muon2 for your comments.

If I were a judge, I would disregard incumbents' little problems. She can move. There is some merit where possible and reasonable for constituents staying together rather than being moved around every ten years, but I don't feel that way about where incumbents live.

Well, yeah. And this hispanic-opportunity district is based around Williamsburg and the Lower East Side. You will have to start from scratch and do the minority-held districts first if you want to be able to present a plan good enough to serve as a starting point for discussion.
You also need to get your intentions clear - do you want to simulate what is most likely to happen, or do you want to prove that Turner's district could conceivably survive? Your current maps would be good enough, minor corrections aside, to serve the second purpose - but then it hardly needed proving; I would have happily agreed to that immediately.

[minionofmidas]

I just screwed up. 

Exactly.
Now you're scurrying about like a cat in a litterbox trying to not have to fix it.

[minionofmidas]

Why did i even bother replying.

Oh well. Won't any further.

[minionofmidas]

At the rate we're going, you might soon have me on ignore.

Probably, should you up the testosterone dose any further. I think I've located the issue, you see.

Anyways, maxing the racial gerry is a fun exercise I can relate to, but is not of course compatible with trying to simulate what a court might do (and also doesn't mix with retreating the 12th out of Manhattan... not that it affects the basic outline at this point). And there must be a five-digit number of further residents of white precincts in your NY-14, btw. All along the Hudson is white, pretty much. EDIT: Meh, that estimate is probably a bit high.

[minionofmidas]

I thought that when I created a majority Hispanic CD by just giggling the lines a bit, and having looked at the existing Hispanic percentages in Velaquez's CD, that it must have been hers. The percentages just "fit" to well.

That's demographic changes for you.

2000:
NY-7 40% Hispanic, 28% White, 19% Black, 13% Asian. A multiracial district that may go Hispanic eventually, but is safe for its White incumbent for the time being, thanks in part to being a political machine boss first and a Washington rep second.
NY-12 49% Hispanic, 23% White, 16% Asian, 11% Black. Safely Hispanic, also picking up as many Asians as can be along the way. (It was then the second most Asian district in the city, and they were - still are - at the Manhattan and Queens ends.)

2010:
NY-7 44% Hispanic, 21% White, 20% Black, 16% Asian. White flight. Crowley's still safe, but only because he's Crowley.
NY-12 45% Hispanic, 27% White, 18% Asian, 11% Black. Gentrification apace, and not along the edges but in the district's centerpiece, the undivided , but racially mixed neighborhoods of Williamsburg (never really "mixed". Micro-segregated is more like it) and Greenpoint.
And suddenly the 12th looks like the White district. The 11th and 15th also had their White populations increase notably.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, I played with the DRA a bit until it crashed on me.
A few things I noticed: The "Non-Hispanic Origin Black Only" figures of the DRA are really misleading for the Brooklyn-Queens Black districts. CD-6 is currently 54.8% Black, alone or in combination. The DRA has it 5.5 points lower. VAP or Total makes not much difference.
It's certainly not necessary to cross into Long Island at all to keep it over 50%... but I guess it's allowable to use the little majority-black cluster muon also used.
Williamsburg is actually split under the current map too. I never noticed that, lol.
The landbridge in the middle of CD-9 will have to go Black. There is quite literally nowhere else the Brooklyn Black CDs can conceivably go once its accepted that NY-12 will be viewed as a minority seat by a court (that is, nowhere of sufficient population; Park Slope Whites alone won't help you). Even the nearest Hispanic-majority cluster for CD12 to expand into is ... the northernmost part of that bridge.
You can't bring NY-12 much higher than 45% Hispanic VAP (plus a slight increase in the Asian population) without major amendations... so I guess it will look closer to what muon envisaged than I at first thought likely.
At that point, I wondered "why bother, then. Muon's nailed that much"... and just then my pc crashed.

[minionofmidas]

DRA is Dave's Redistricting App, of course. The Brooklyn districts have similar (somewhat smaller) discrepancies to the 6th.
There is no way any court will draw the 12th up to 61% Hispanic - given voting patterns, that kind of packing is possibly illegal even for the legislature (in a noncompact district). And there is no legislative intent of a max pack of Hispanics. There is legislative intent to have a weird hybrid of historic Williamsburg / North Brooklyn district and a Hispanic snakey thing.
You don't have a dilution issue - the districts remain majority Black. It's also not as if there were more Blacks in other directions (except Long Island, but Long Island is Long Island and New York City is New York City. And it's not as if there were any segregated Black neighborhoods in that part of Long Island. Though who knows. It's unlikely but not impossible.)
The current NY-9 district is the district that gets abolished. Probably. The most likely candidate by a mile or so, but not the only one. What's left in the north goes into the fifth, mostly (you might argue it's more a case of them being merged). What's left in the south goes into the 8th I guess... ugh, that's ugly.
Oh yeah. After drawing the 6th, 10th, 11th and 12th, I had a pocket of 9th territory in between (the whitest part of the landbridge...) so had to rework the Brooklyn Black districts so as to swallow that. They have the Blackness to spare for that, of course. (They were still both over 50% even in DRA figures, but I had to transfer some wholly Black territory from the one to the other for that.)

Have you seen my map back in the thread where I created an Asian plurality district in Queens?

[minionofmidas]

I guess they figure that Velazquez's 12th is the only other target if the 9th survives.

Heh.

[minionofmidas]

5th 40% Asian, 36% White, 16% Hispanic, 64.2% Obama. And open, apparently, at least til Weiner's successor has been chosen. Plurality Asian on VAP as well.

[minionofmidas]

Muon2 thinks Hispanic CD's ideally should be 65% Hispanic.  

You mean Mexican CDs? You, like, understand that Puertoricans are citizens and a lot of New York whites are not citizens, right? And quite a few New York blacks neither, btw?

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Huh? Yes there is. It doesn't override the VRA, but it's a basic principle courts need to follow. It's why the court-drawn Texas map post-2000 was still a bit of a Dem gerry. 

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But you scrapped the 4th, 5th, 8th, and 12th and created several new districts.
Oh, and we're not discussing what I would draw as a judge at all if I'm allowed to choose my own definition - that's actually something like the map I just quoted.

[minionofmidas]

You, like, understand that Puertoricans are citizens and a lot of New York whites are not citizens, right? And quite a few New York blacks neither, btw?

Lewis, I don't understand why your tone toward Torie is so disproportionately hostile on this board.

Because the smug snake got me angry... in Arizona, really.

Let's move on. I'm not angry now.

In principle they could still do that, but they would need substantial control over the upstate map in exchange.

Yeah, I was assuming that an upstate Democrat would go alongside Turner.

And yeah... what I had needs work. I do recall my initial response to muon's version of the seat.