US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[minionofmidas]

There is plenty of interesting gossip in this discussion, much of it different from speculation we've made before.

http://www.politicspa.com/exclusive-pa%E2%80%99s-gop-congessional-delegation-coming-to-harrisburg-to-discuss-redistricting-scenarios/22138/

Critz is protected because neighboring Republicans don't want more Dem voters... but Altmire's district could be made more Republican without being dismantled. (So how do they account for lost population in the west?)

Merging Schwartz and Fattah is discussed. Maybe this is what KP was alluding to?

No Republican votes wasted on shoring up Barletta. He sinks or swims on his own.  

Per reading the article, it doesn't make the slightest sense to me, and the numbers don't work. They must be on crack. And how do you make Critz safe, even if you wanted to? They must be on crack, or the reported is being fed a line of disinformation. And combine Fattah and Swartz, while protecting all the Philly area Pubbies?  Ya right. As I said, they are on crack. The idea of endangering (well it can't be done but whatever) PA's only black congressperson is itself very curious - and probably illegal.

They're Pennsylvania Republicans. Of course they are on crack. What did you think?

[minionofmidas]

I would not be surprised if the map were somewhat like this except with Altmire's immediate neighborhood somehow included in Critz' CD. Not saying it's the most likely option, but it would appeal to a certain type of R mapdrawer.

[minionofmidas]

Are they going with Torie's map in West PA, and a lite version of it in Northeast PA, but not try anything funny around Philly? That would strike me as the most sensible thing they could do, really.

[minionofmidas]

I think that map is just Cook Political's prediction, not the real thing.  

But yeah, there are some clear inefficiencies, from the GOP point of view.  As mentioned before, I'd give Reading to Holden rather than Harrisburg, plus more of Monroe County.  And why not liberate some of the heavily McCain precincts in Schuylkill County, while you're at it?  

In the west, Doyle could be packed more, and CD5/12 are unnecessarily strong GOP.  

You can give both Reading and Harrisburgh to Holden, as well as all of Lackawanna and Wilkes Barre.

Lebanon and that much of Carbon don't need to be in Holden's district.


I would call the sprawling CD-14 though that cuts across counties passive, rather than aggressive. The compact circle on Pittsburgh is simply a waste of a lot of Pubbies.

It's just based on the historic situation. Abolishing two D seats in West PA seemed a bridge too far in 2000 (and almost certainly would have been), and that part has trended R more than the areas in what's now Altmire's district.

[minionofmidas]

Alright, abolishing three seemed a bridge too far. I know there were voices that one more might be doable.

I also totally misunderstood your original post, it seems.

[minionofmidas]

Lol, I just drew an 80% Black, 96% Obama district in Philly.

[minionofmidas]

I don't think you can get it over mid-70's Black in NYC, for example (and that only in Brooklyn).
Really though, I was just trying to see what a Black-pack in Philly would look like, since the current setup of the first and second districts is basically ridiculous. Either do a really heavily Black seat and a "White" seat (that is only 50% White, and about 20% each Black and Hispanic) by splitting the city (sans northeastern and northwestern edges) east-west - cleaning up the eastern edge of my maximum Blackpack only brought it down to 75% Black - or screw Bob Brady and do two 55% Black seats by splitting north-south.

[minionofmidas]

My attempt at fairmapping PA.



enhance



1 (South Philly) 55% Black, 30% White, 89.3% Obama. Brady, Fattah.
Went to research where Reps live... and I just understood why the current first is shaped as it is. Lol. Brady is from its northwestern earmuff.
2 (NC Philly) 42% Black, 31% White, 20% Hispanic, 85.1% Obama. open
There are two possible reasonable designs in Philly - north/south, both seats intended for a Black rep, or east/west, with the western seat quite heavily packed Black and the eastern seat intended for a White rep. Either way you want to keep the main Hispanic concentration united in the less Black seat. This is the former design, the arguments are finely balanced though and I don't really have a preference either way. Or didn't til I noticed where Brady lives. Now I guess I prefer the other map. It'd still draw Fattah and Brady both in the Blacker seat, but at ~70% Black there'd be no chance whatsoever of the map producing two White Congressmen. I'll post a map of what that'll look like tomorrow, probably also keep Cheltenham with Montgomery in that.
3 (Bucks) 86% White, 53.7% Obama. Fitzpatrick
Not changed much, remains very much winnable for both parties.
4 (Montgomery) 78% White, 57.6% Obama. Schwartz
Not much to see here.
5 (Delaware) 80% White, 10% Black, 58.4% Obama. Meehan
Probably gone for Republicans.
6 (Lancaster-Chester) 81% White, 50.8% Obama. Gerlach, Pitts
Interesting primary fight here... despite voting for Obama, should be safe congressionally.
7 (York) 88% White, 57.5% McCain. Platts
Not much to see here.
8 (Harrisburg) 82% White, 53.2% McCain. open
An overdue seat. Reliably Republican for now, though they can't like the pattern of demographic change here.
9 (Berks-Schuylkill) 83% White, 11% Hispanic, 51.7% Obama. Holden
This is Tim Holden, Schuylkill's Tim Holden. He'll be fine.
10 (Allentown-Bethlehem-Stroudsburg) 75% White, 15% Hispanic, 56.9% Obama. Dent
Should be gone for Republicans, but the stress is on "should". I'm not actually sure it would be.
11 (Wyoming Valley) 87% White, 56.3% Obama. Barletta
Two theories: Barletta's until the Democrats nominate an electable candidate, or Barletta's until the next major Democratic wave (and the Democrats nominate an electable candidate.) Exactly what I'd be saying about his current district too.
12 (Northeast) 93% White, 57.0% McCain. Marino
Not much to see here.
13 (Northwest-State College) 94% White, 55.0% McCain. Kelly, Thompson
Thompson's favored as he represents much more of the area at current.
14 (Altoona-Johnstown) 94% White, 59.8% McCain. Shuster, Critz
Safe for Shuster, evidently. Makes you wonder why Shuster is so interested in keeping Johnstown out of his district, it poses no danger to him.
15 (Erie-Beaver) 90% White, 51.4% Obama. open
Swing seat.
16 (Pittsburgh) 73% White, 20% Black, 65.5% Obama. Doyle
Not much to see here.
17 (Westmoreland-North Allegheny) 94% White, 57.9% McCain. Altmire
Altmire's a goner in this district, which is more of a successor to Johnson's current district than his own.
18 (Washington-Fayette-South Allegheny) 92% White, 50.4% McCain. Johnson
This seems tailormade for a Mark Critz/Jason Altmire type of Democrat, but Johnson's residence throws a spanner in the works.

[minionofmidas]

1st 75% Black, 15% White, 95.2% Obama
2nd 47% White, 22% Hispanic, 20% Black, 74.9% Obama
3rd 86% White, 53.7% Obama
4th 78% White, 59.9% Obama
5th 79% White, 11% Black, 58.6% Obama

[minionofmidas]

Lancaster County will not be split, nor paired with York.  No way, no how.  I doubt it happens even if the Dems have total control. 

It's not a prediction.

I suppose though you're saying it mustn't be split... so, what alternative should I pursue here?

[minionofmidas]

Exchanging the grey district's share of Lancaster for Franklin and Fulton works almost perfectly, so I'll try it, dp.

[minionofmidas]

enhance



1 (West Philly) 76% Black, 13% White, 95.5% Obama. Brady, Fattah.
2 (East Philly) 49% White, 22% Hispanic, 19% Black, 74.5% Obama. open.
3 (Bucks) 86% White, 53.7% Obama. Fitzpatrick (virtually unchanged)
4 (Lower Montgomery - Main Line) 78% White, 62.7% Obama. Schwartz.
5 (Delaware - South Chester) 78% White, 11% Black, 56.7% Obama. Meehan, Pitts
They get to tear each other's limbs out in the primary, and then the winner is too weakened to win the general. Sounds like a plan to me.
6 (Lancaster - North Chester) 84% White, 52.5% McCain. Gerlach
Gets a safe seat, but a hell of a lot of new territory.
7 (York - Franklin) 88% White, 58.7% McCain. Platts
Supersafe.
8 (Harrisburg) 82% White, 53.3% McCain. open (minor changes)
9 (Berks - Upper Montgomery) 80% White, 11% Hispanic, 53.7% Obama
And Bucks has a twin! Ought to be... interesting.
10 (Lehigh Valley - Stroudsburg) 76% White, 15% Hispanic, 56.6% Obama. Dent (virtually unchanged)
11 (Wyoming Valley - Carbon) 88% White, 56.3% Obama. Barletta (minor changes)
12 (North East) 92% White, 55.1% McCain. Holden
Yeah well, lol. And probably a step too far for Holden to holden. That 12th is so ugly though that I will try to cut off its eastern earmuff next and add Carbon and Hazleton instead.
13 (North West) 96% White, 58.6% McCain. Kelly, Marino.
Glenn Thompson has been cut out of his safe seat and two other Republicans have been cut into it. Lol.
14 (Altoona - Johnstown - State College) 93% White, 55.0% McCain. Thompson, Shuster, Critz
Shuster is gonna be mad. Then he prevails anyways.
15 (Erie - Beaver) 90% White, 51.4% Obama. open (unchanged)
16 (Pittsburgh) 73% White, 20% Black, 65.5% Obama. Doyle (unchanged)
17 (Westmoreland - North Allegheny) 94% White, 57.9% McCain. Altmire (unchanged)
18 (Southwest) 92% White, 50.4% McCain. Murphy (unchanged)
Some part of my brain insists on calling Tim Murphy "Johnson".

[minionofmidas]

Went a little further than that...



7 (York - Franklin) 88% White, 58.9% McCain. Platts
8 (Harrisburg) 82% White, 53.4% McCain. open
10 (Lehigh Valley) 77% White, 14% Hispanic, 55.9% Obama. Dent
11 (Wyoming Valley - Stroudsburg) 85% White, 57.5% Obama. open.
Utterly safe for the lucky sod who wins the first Democratic primary.
12 (Schuylkill - Hazleton - Williamsport) 92% White, 55.8% McCain. Barletta, Holden.
Barletta wins.
13 (North) 97% White, 58.6% McCain. Marino
Just barely in, he lives in a township (Lycoming) that I'd rather have kept with Williamsport but I had to move something from cornflower back to tan, and this and its immediate western neighbor seemed the best candidates.
14 (Altoona - Johnstown - State College) 93% White, 54.4% McCain. Thompson, Shuster, Critz.
Come at me with more innocuous-sounding change proposals that somehow affect the center of the state, and eventually I'll come up with a map where Critz beats Shuster. (Actually... not happening unless it gets taken into Fayette next.)

[minionofmidas]

I don't see why the Democrats would care about keeping Lancaster and York counties together since it just results in a lot of wasted Democratic votes in the cities proper. See my map above. The Democrats could easily put those votes to use.

This is in reference to what, exactly?

[minionofmidas]

I don't see why the Democrats would care about keeping Lancaster and York counties together since it just results in a lot of wasted Democratic votes in the cities proper. See my map above. The Democrats could easily put those votes to use.

For the same reason that the GOP isn't going to dump lower Bucks into Schwartz's district, or crack the Lehigh Valley.  To answer Torie's post, demographically Lancaster city and county are now different, but economically and historically they are very much one unit. 

What reason is that again?

That they care about more than the sheer numbers, at least in some parts of the state, and also have some - not necessarily correct - notion of what kind of candidate will play best in what place. You may have noticed that gerrymandered plans that look okay at first glance usually just means that the people who drew it despise all their subjects ("citizens") equally, while the egregious-at-first-glance maps come about because some areas' regional identities and historical ties were respected, forcing crasser splits in the remaining places.

[minionofmidas]

Some of them. Whether Pennsylvania's has... I don't know. The two legislative parties still are aligned at an odd angle compared to Presidential or even Congressional voting patterns, for one thing.

[minionofmidas]

Went a little further than that...



7 (York - Franklin) 88% White, 58.9% McCain. Platts
8 (Harrisburg) 82% White, 53.4% McCain. open
10 (Lehigh Valley) 77% White, 14% Hispanic, 55.9% Obama. Dent
11 (Wyoming Valley - Stroudsburg) 85% White, 57.5% Obama. open.
Utterly safe for the lucky sod who wins the first Democratic primary.
12 (Schuylkill - Hazleton - Williamsport) 92% White, 55.8% McCain. Barletta, Holden.
Barletta wins.
13 (North) 97% White, 58.6% McCain. Marino
Just barely in, he lives in a township (Lycoming) that I'd rather have kept with Williamsport but I had to move something from cornflower back to tan, and this and its immediate western neighbor seemed the best candidates.
14 (Altoona - Johnstown - State College) 93% White, 54.4% McCain. Thompson, Shuster, Critz.
Come at me with more innocuous-sounding change proposals that somehow affect the center of the state, and eventually I'll come up with a map where Critz beats Shuster. (Actually... not happening unless it gets taken into Fayette next.)

I would eliminate the triple split of Butler

Boundary in Beaver is the Ohio River. Obviously you could put some piece of Warren or Venango in instead, but I don't see the point.

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Easily possible. Just gonna look damn ugly.

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No. Just no. That was done for two very good reasons. The northernmost township of York is a fast growing suburb of Harrisburg, and the Cumberland-Franklin line splits Shippensburg in two.

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Easily possible and not affecting many people. Just gonna look damn ugly.

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Not the ones in Delaware - one keeps very heavily Black areas just outside the town limits (and bordering just as Black areas of Philly) in with the Philly Black seat, and the other is caused by following the instruction to move the Main Line towns in with Lower MontCo (and by the desire to split no towns except Philly and Upper Darby.) They could theoretically be removed without much change elsewhere. And cyan could also be gotten out of Chester without serious remap - it just forces a less sensible split of MontCo (and/or a split town there). It's still the most reasonable one of your suggestions.
You even missed one more double county split - Lycoming/Clinton. Of course, that too was done for a reason.
One thing I think probably would improve the map is exchange Wyoming County for part of Wayne.

[minionofmidas]

I would eliminate the triple split of Butler

Boundary in Beaver is the Ohio River. Obviously you could put some piece of Warren or Venango in instead, but I don't see the point.

Your claim is that your proposal is "fair".  One characteristic of fairness is that you apply rules consistently and uniformly.  It would appear that one of your rules is to not split counties, except where it is necessary for population balance.

No, not really. Although it will look a lot like it in those parts of the country that don't have universal township organization.
Nor do I really think "applying rules uniformly" is really a characteristic of fairness - at least, the rules would have to be very very detailed for that to be true. But that's neither here nor there, really. Mostly, these maps try to be based on "community of interest" as far as feasible, and counties, like townships, population density (not splitting smaller population centers if it can be avoided, especially), race, and occasionally even partisan leanings are all determinants of community of interest. Along with theoretically more important "soft" factors like what feels itself to belong together - I say "theoretically" because I frequently don't know enough about the places to get it right. And thus need input.

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I wouldn't... but I would worry about including just a little sliver south of the river. Which does appear to be a fairly significant boundary, actually. You wouldn't need to go that far east, either... there's actually more population than I really think ideal just outside the four West PA districts.

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Fair points, of course.

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To deny effective representation to voters in the northern parts of the two counties?[/quote]No, to not split Lock Haven and to not split it from Williamsport.

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Of course you can - the current seat does. There's just no rationale for it beyond partisan gain. You're carving a corridor through "normal" suburbia to get some hardcore dem (and quite Black) enclave purged from the Delaware district. There's plenty of Blacks in Philly itself; unless you're going with the two Black Philly seats scenario.
Apart from cutting through the Main Line, your Philly Metro map would also make it impossible to use the Outer Northwest as one of the shed parts of Philadelphia. And that Berks seat is gonna look quite strange. I'm not saying it's not also a possible alignment, it is. I'm saying it's not probable to come out better than mine. Though, draw it yourself and prove me wrong.

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What if you bring the green district into Carbon (or maybe Northampton), pushing the blue district out of Carbon, but further north in Lycoming, and then moving part of Wayne into the northern district.

[/quote]Well, the idea was more the impression that Tunkhannock looks to Scranton and Wilkes-Barre and would thus be a better fit there than Wayne and Pike are... but a threeway exchange of territory with Wayne or parts of Wayne; additional territory in Lycoming; and... not Carbon, but Luzerne... actually does sound a reasonable suggestion, yeah.

[minionofmidas]

This is one state where I'm really interested in what the maps are going to look like eventually. When about can we expect maps?

[minionofmidas]

Ugh, I'm represented by that ass Pitts.

Does that mean the Congressional map is out?

[minionofmidas]

Seems they will indeed not get too greedy in the southwest, either.

[minionofmidas]

It's just the kind of thing redistricters shy away from for no really good reason unless there's no alternative, somehow.

[minionofmidas]

LOL there's a town in Lycoming County called "Loyalsockville". That has a lot of possible interpretations in relation to this forum.

I've pointed that out once before on here.

[minionofmidas]

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Thank you Mrs Earll!

[minionofmidas]

I don't know if this was noticed before, but the seven SE counties are almost exactly the size of 7 CDs.

My (2nd and 3rd) maps on page 15 use that.