MI-9: Rossman's Independent Polling: Raczkowski (R) 45% Peters (D) 40.7% (user search)
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  MI-9: Rossman's Independent Polling: Raczkowski (R) 45% Peters (D) 40.7% (search mode)
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Author Topic: MI-9: Rossman's Independent Polling: Raczkowski (R) 45% Peters (D) 40.7%  (Read 2096 times)
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« on: September 17, 2010, 03:28:53 PM »

By 'wipeout' do you mean holding 5, 12, 13, 14, and 15 while losing 1, 7, and 9? Peters is a freshman elected in 2008 with 52%, this is a suburban district most likely affected by the tea party, and the PVI is only D +2; plus it's Michigan. Though the whole auto bailout probably plays well here.

     Losing 3 CDs in one state is bad news no matter how you cut it. Probably shouldn't be described as a wipeout, but the MI Democrats are in bad shape.
Yeah, that would reduce the Dems to all the seats drawn to favor them... big deal.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2010, 03:38:40 PM »

Lossing 1, 7 and 9 would shift the state from 8-7 Dem to 10-5 Republican. A 2-1 Republican delegation in Michigan, (...) How is that not a wipeout for the Democrats? Shame Stabenow isn't up. Tongue
Sigh... 10-5 R with that map does not actually mean an R lead in the popular statewide vote. (As in, not necessarily.)
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2010, 03:26:31 AM »

The Democrats have like a 92% Floor in Detroit, so it skews the statewide numbers without affecting the congressional results much.
True enough, of course.

(By the way, the 2004 results are a perfect example of that 10-5 split.)

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