German Election Results Thread

[minionofmidas]

Bumpity.

Comment on the last map uploaded here and there might be another one up soon...

Eh, old Sachsenhausen and the 1890s era area southwest of it should be obvious enough. Downstream from old Sachsenhausen is poshland, upstream is the new poshish (but not all-posh) stuff built on the former slaughterhouse grounds (the long pale yellow precinct). South of the railway line is mostly more suburban than urban in character... excempting the area just south here... but not all of it is posh though a lot is. Some weird non-social housing tower blocks where the precincts are smaller. And Binding Brewery east of that, of course. And then there's the estatelands in the "Gleisdreieck", ie the Heimatsiedlung (the one SPD precinct in Sachsenhausen with the huge Left and ridiculous CDU tally, Bauhaus architecture, quite dense) and the ugly 50s Fritz-Kissel-Siedlung south of it which is full of elderly workingclass Heimatvertriebene. The precinct east of the Heimatsiedlung is sort of mixed, partly rather like the Kissel estate but not part of it. And two blocks that look exactly like the Heimatsiedlung and were built at the same time and were supposed to be yet another estate that never got built.
And then there's Oberrad and Niederrad. Old dependent villages of Frankfurt that later turned working class suburbs/commuter villages (in the 19th century). Oberrad got bombed flat quite badly in march 1945, nobody really knows why. That southeastern Oberrad precinct is another place with ugly-looking non "social" highrises - it's very visible from the motorway coming in from the south, and a friend of mine once told he always claims it's part of Offenbach when he drives guests in along that road.
Niederrad has interwar and postwar estatelands to the west but also a rather nice old "urban" core (and a tiny even older "village" core north of that) and a posh zone at the southeast corner.

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I could resend it...

[minionofmidas]

Magnus Gäfgen grew up on the Fritz Kissel estate.

[minionofmidas]

MVP will lose a seat to Hesse at the next review. Which isn't officially out yet, but the numbers it will use are. (We review every year except election years... but we only apportion seats by states and check whether any seat is really obscenely above or below target - 25% over or under (on election day as well as the date the review's based on) being considered totally illegal, and 15% undesirable... but bearable.) Anyways, it's clear that the new seat in Hesse will be created from parts of the Hanau, Wetterau and Fulda constituencies, and that Fulda will move north somewhat to take in part of Werra-Meißner-Hersfeld. But there are two proposals on which places exactly are to be included in the new constituency.





The latter map is preferrable; it includes part of "only" three districts (Wetterau, Main-Kinzig, Vogelsberg, but not Fulda) and also moves the Fulda constituency out of the Vogelsberg district entirely. Besides, I think this is winnable for the SPD though it would go CDU in an even year. The other one is not winnable short of a landslide. Numbers reference current constituencies - 175 Fulda, 177 Wetterau, 180 Hanau. And 174 Gießen, which also includes the remainder of Vogelsberg district. (This would recreate the 30s to 70s district boundary, with Alsfeld District in Gießen and Lauterbach District in the new, as yet unnamed, constituency. Probably Gelnhausen-Schlüchtern-Lauterbach or some such. Although Spessart-Vogelsberg might work too.)

I can't seem to find anything on a six-seat MVP; it's rather remarkable that the Fuldaer Zeitung has a journalist who cared to report, and it's my only source right now (as there are no official publications yet).

[minionofmidas]

Check your email.

[minionofmidas]

Ah, where to begin.

Anything post 94 here is fairly useless. There is very little "suburban" (in the sense I meant I used it the last time around - though of course in another sense everything here except maybe the northeast Griesheim projects* is suburban) about the west part of the city. Parts of western Unterliederbach, that's about it.

*Excempted in that they're close to and linked to the Gallus, not on account of how they vote (or rather how that minority of residents who're both enfranchised and care votes.)

[minionofmidas]

Southern Zeilsheim:



The Hoechst AG housing its workers, once upon a time.

[minionofmidas]

Ah lol, no. That it includes (a lot of) the old works is merely the reason why the precinct's surface is that big. The population is east of that. It's part of the old urban core of Höchst. Not quite sure why the Green tally was slightly higher than in the other two precincts there.

The works are not torn down or anything. They're not even vacant (if somewhat underemployed). A lot of the production that used to be there when Hoechst was a living, vibrant, rooted company is still there... perfect proof that "shareholder values" can destroy a community even without actually throwing everybody on the street.

[minionofmidas]

To be quite fair, the times when Hoechst workers all lived in Höchst or Zeilsheim or Sindlingen were long past even before.

[minionofmidas]

So... now that two-thirds of the city are up anyways... might as well continue.

[minionofmidas]

Ortsbezirk 7. In certain parts... wtf?

It isn't immediately obvious due to the colour scheme, but the Left won Old Rödelheim (Greens second I think). On a little over 20% of the vote - it wasn't actually their strongest precinct - but, yeah. Also, the Westhausen Estate precincts (two northernmost SPD precincts) look weird without a road grid. Late 20s/Early 30s built, as is the Praunheim Estate just north of it, but with smaller houses. The SPD precinct in southeastern Hausen has some slummy highrises bordering directly on open land. While South Praunheim (south from old Praunheim, and across the Nidda River too. Actually the easternmost part of Praunheim) looks and feels affluent suburban (and butt-ugly) despite its almost-inner-city location. Privately built late 60s/70s infill.

What else is wtf?

[minionofmidas]

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siedlung_Praunheim

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siedlung_Westhausen

[minionofmidas]

Nothing else; that was the wtf bit.

Actually, I haven't even mentioned the part that looks most wtf (beyond that Left precinct) from the POV of someone who knows the area reasonably well... which is the FDP distribution. I would have expected stronger results on the other side of the railroad tracks, and in South Praunheim (although geriatry may explain that one)... even though I know most of those two precincts east of Rödelheim station (which is at the point where four precincts meet) are more affluent than the road that divides them (and that would fit right into the Left-won precinct east of it.) Especially right by the Nidda.

[minionofmidas]

Heddernheim proper to the east, interwar Römerstadt to the south, 90s/2000s built Mertonviertel on the former copperworks grounds to the northeast, the huge 60s/70s Nordweststadt dominant in the west and center. Niederursel proper in the north, not that it's particularly large.

[minionofmidas]

The area had a ridiculous number of precincts abolished in '09, and it obscures a lot of patterns. Besides, I know the area well, mostly, but I don't have an answer to the obvious question, ie why are some Nordweststadt tower block areas more socialdemocratic than others?

[minionofmidas]

Ortsbezirk 9.

Two questions. What makes the strong SPD precinct out on its lonesome different from the rest of that general area,

Er... not sure actually. And I've walked the area to find out.
It's an undersized precinct IIRC. And 2009's SPD tally was a few points higher than you'd expect from earlier years... but that gain is mostly at the Greens' expense. Which answers absolutely nothing.

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I've mentioned them before. The former US army housings (not barracks - apartments for soldiers and their families) turned into social housing in the mid-90s. Which means poor people, an ethnically mixed (ie highered migrant share but majority German) population, and absolutely no olds. Heck, a Frankfurt "Siedlung" with non-negligible numbers of pure German children.
Over half of the two precincts to the north is also former US army housings, and there are a few more smaller such areas elsewhere. But this is the only precinct to consist wholly of them. What's more, there's the issue of the road grid: You'll notice there's exactly four ways in and out of the precinct (and one a darkened underpass at that), while the housings further to the north are more integrated into surrounding architecture.

This one's a large precinct. With low but not quite comedic turnout. And the lowest share of mail-in ballots in the city.

[minionofmidas]

Re 8...



Couple of minor mistakes (a few Nordi blocks shown outside the dotted line, terrain west of Praunheinmer Weg wrongly shown as in Praunheim rather than Niederursel), but shows a lot. Römerstadt showing very well.

[minionofmidas]

Ah, yes. I remember you mentioning it now

So the other one is just one of those weird little electoral quirks?

Probably, yeah.

A lot of the eastern Dornbusch (not all of it) could/"should" be voting somewhat more leftwing than it does. Would be doing so in Britain, I suppose. Old people. Stable neighborhoods with small but comfortable 50s/early 60s built flats. This precinct votes like what it looks like.

[minionofmidas]

This is estates and suburbs. The new bits very new.

That northeast Frankfurter Berg precinct consists of just nine buildings: http://maps.google.de/maps?hl=de&q=Frankfurter+Berg&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=Frankfurter+Berg+Frankfurt+am+Main,+Hessen&ll=50.168542,8.681645&spn=0.004041,0.013078&t=h&z=17
(Also, note the construction just south of it. Built by now.)

Ooh, the Frankfurter Bogen (East Preungesheim) is also shown as not yet built in google earth: http://maps.google.de/maps?hl=de&q=Frankfurter+Berg&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=Frankfurter+Berg+Frankfurt+am+Main,+Hessen&ll=50.154494,8.699563&spn=0.008084,0.026157&t=h&z=16
But it's there in streetview!

[minionofmidas]

Oh. Right. The 10th. Lol. That's why it looked so strange. I mean, besides the 11th.

[minionofmidas]

One hellhole covered is not like the other hellholes.

[minionofmidas]

...and I think you were trying to save the best for last with that one.

Here we got the ancient little city of Bergen up on the ridge, surrounded by very posh developments (especially right on the hillslope itself, ie to the south) - see the two slightly lighter precincts in the northern part of the CDU map? That's old Bergen - and then we get the much more working class 50s (mostly) suburb of Enkheim down in the floodplain (not that the Main has been allowed to flood the plain these last 100 years). Taking its name from an old village - really just a cluster of a few houses - that had always belonged to Bergen and that sits right at the foot of the ridge, actually in that blue/yellow precinct and thus not in what I'd term an Enkheim precinct. Not really *entirely* sure why there's such a strong east-west cleavage within Enkheim, don't really know it well enough for that.

[minionofmidas]

Nice. Of course I'm really waiting for the turnout map.

[minionofmidas]

Nice. Of course I'm really waiting for the turnout map.

[minionofmidas]

Interesting. Is there a map of all the municipalities? If there isn't I could draw one myself, but it would take a while.

EPIC BUMP IS EPIC