India elections

[minionofmidas]

Sikkim
SDF 1 (unchanged, BJP ALLY)

Assam
INC 5 (Silchar, Barpeta, Kaliabor, Jorhat, Dibrugarh)
BJP 4 (Karimganj, Dhubri, Gauhati, Nowgong)
AGP 3 (Mangaldori, Tezpur, Lakhimpur) THIRD PARTY
CPI-ML 1 (Autonomous District) THIRD PARTY
ind 1 (Kokrajhar) BJP ALLY

1999 result
INC 10
BJP 2
CPI-ML 1
ind 1 REAL INDEPENDENT

Arunachal Pradesh
INC 1 (East)
AC 1 (West) CONGRESS ALLY

1999 result
INC 2

Nagaland
INC 1 (unchanged)

Manipur
BJP 1 (Inner)
NCP 1 (Outer)

1999 result
MSCP 1 BJP ALLY
NCP 1 THIRD PARTY

Mizoram
MNF 1 (BJP ALLY) 1999: ind 1 (BJP ALLY)

Tripura
CPM 2 (unchanged)

Meghalaya
INC 1 (Shillong)
TC 1 (Tura)

1999 result
INC 1
NCP 1

Maharashtra
INC 17 (1999 plus Kolaba, Mumbai S, Mumbai NE, Dhule, Buldhana, Ramtek, Aurangabad, Kopergaon)
NCP 11 (1999 plus Nashik, Bheed, Osmanabad, Ahmednagar)
BJP 9 (1999 minus Mumbai S, Mumbai NE, Dhule, Bheed, Ahmednagar; plus Akola)
SHS 9 (1999 minus Buldhana, Ramtek, Aurangabad, Kopergaon, Nashik, Osmanabad)
JD (S) 1 (Malegaon) THIRD PARTY
ind 1 (Pandharpur) CONGRESS ALLY

1999 results
SHS 15
BJP 13
INC 9
NCP 7
PWPI 1 THIRD PARTY
BBM 1 THIRD PARTY
JD (S) 1
ind 1 TRUE INDEPENDENT

Goa
BJP 1 (North)
INC 1 (South)

1999 result
BJP 2

Karnataka
INC 13  (Raichur, Bellary, Tumkur, Chikballapur, Kolar, Bangalore N, Bangalore S, Chamarajnagar, Mangalore, Udupi, Hassan, Kanara, Bagalkot)
BJP 12 (Bidar, Gulbarga, Koppal, Davangere, Mysore, Chikmagalur, Shimoga, Dharwad S, Dharwad N, Belgaum, Chikkodi, Bijapur)
JD (S) 2 (Kanakapura, Mandya)
JD (U) 1 (Chitradurga)

1999 result
INC 18
BJP 7
JD (U) 3

to be continued

[minionofmidas]

Kerala
INC 11 (1999 plus Cannanore, Ottapalam, Kottayam, Idukki, Chirayinkil; minus Ernakulam, Trivandrum)
CPM 4 (1999 minus see above, except Idukki)
MUL 2 (Manjeri, Ponnani) CONGRESS ALLY
BJP 1 (Trivandrum)
IFDP 1 (Muvattupuzha) BJP ALLY
ind 1 (Ernakulam) COMMIE ALLY

1999 result
INC 8
CPM 8
MUL 2
KC (J) 1 COMMIE ALLY
KC (M) 1 INC ALLY

Lakshadweep
INC 1 (unchanged)

Andaman & Nicobar Islands
BJP 1 (unchanged)

Pondicherry
PMK 1 (CONGRESS ALLY)
1999: Congress 1

Tamil Nadu
DMK 15 (Madras N, Madras C, Madras S, Sribamapudar, Tirupattur, Tinelivanam, Cuddalore, Krishnagiri, Karur, Perambaluvar, Nagapattinam, Thanjavur, Pudukkottai, Ramanathapuram, Tiruchendur) CONGRESS ALLY
AIADMK 11 (Arakkonam, Vellore, Rasipuram, Salem, Tiruchengode, Gobichettipalayam, Palani, Dindigul, Periyakulam, Tirucchirapalli, Tirunelveli) BJP ALLY
BJP 3 (Dharmapuri, Nilgiris, Nagercoil)
MDMK 3 (Vandavasi, Pollachi, Sivakasi) CONGRESS ALLY
INC 2 (Mayiladuturai, Sivaganga)
PMK 2 (Chengalpattu, Chidambaram)
PT 1 (Tenkasi) CONGRESS ALLY
CPM 1 (Madurai)
CPI 1 (Coimbatore)

1999 result
DMK 11 BJP ALLY
AIADMK 10 CONGRESS ALLY
PMK 5 BJP ALLY
MDMK 5 BJP ALLY
BJP 4
INC 2
CPM 1
MGRADMK 1 THIRD PARTY

Andhra Pradesh
INC 17 (1999 plus Parvathipuram, Eluru, Guntur, Ongole, Nellore, Tirupathi, Chitoor, Anantapur, Kurnool, Mahabubnagar, Nizamabad, Peddapatti)
TDP 15 BJP ALLY
TRS 4 (Nagarkurnool, Medak, Karimnagar, Warangal) CONGRESS ALLY
BJP 3 (Rajahmundry, Narasapur, Sikanderabad)
CPM 1 (Bhadrachalam)
CPI 1 (Nalgonda)
AIMIM 1 (Hyderabad) THIRD PARTY

1999
TDP 29
BJP 7
INC 5
AIMIM 1

NATIONAL TOTAL
NDA 244
of which BJP 173, TDP 15, JD (U) 11, AIADMK 11, BJD 10, SHS 9, TC 6, SAD 5, SDF 1, MNF 1, IFDP 1, ind 1

CONGRESS AND ALLIES 191
of which INC 125, RJD 17, DMK 15, NCP 13, TRS 4, LJP 3, PMK 3, MDMK 3, PDP 2, MUL 2, PT 1, AC 1, ind 2

OTHERS 108
of which SP 42, CPM 33, BSP 6, CPI 5, JD (S) 3, RLD 3, AGP 3, RSP 3, FB 2, JK NC 1, SAD (M) 1, INLD 1, SJP 1, JMM 1, CPI-ML 1, AIMIM 1, ind 1

[minionofmidas]

After the second round of polling, exit polls are proclaiming the following...
The Chandrababu Naidu government is toast; Congress/TRS sweep the state and according to some firms will get as many seats as TDP/BJP got last time.
It's down to the wire in Karnataka, with the JD (S) likely picking up a number of seats in the Lok Sabha.
Patnaik can sleep soundly in Orissa.
BJP/SHS and INC/NCP will have roughly equal numbers of seats in Maharashtra.
My UP predictions won't come to pass, the election is going much better than I expected for both Congress and the Bahusan Samaj.
Bihar will be a RLD/INC victory, but maybe not by the kind of margin I envisage.
The NDA will either just about make it to a second term or there'll be a hung Lok Sabha with the NDA the strongest camp. The latter is looking likelier by the day.
The most NDA-unfriendly of the polling firm results I see quoted is very close to my prediction! NDTV say NDA 235-255, Congress & Allies 190-210, others 100-120.

[minionofmidas]

They won't miss it by much, they'll just have to rope in a few more partners...but still, it's nice.

[minionofmidas]

Just quoting Reuter's...
"India's mammoth election campaign drew to a close on Saturday with both main parties trading insults as exit and opinion polls showed a close race to the finish line."
and...
"The NDA's campaign motto 'India Shining' appears to have backfired among the rural impoverished masses, many of whom feel excluded from an economic recovery that has mainly benefited the urban middle class."

[minionofmidas]

Gee...I dunno. In some parts, yeah. Karnataka's JD (S) gains won't be anywhere urban, for example. Elsewhere, it's always been there: Hyderabad votes Islamist, for example. Elsewhere again, maybe not: Madras shouldn't vote so different from the rest of Tamil Nadu. Never has in the past, anyways. Delhi is it's own state, so you can't really judge. Calcutta already is the most NDA-friendly part, okay the only NDA-friendly part, of West Bengal.

[minionofmidas]

Tallys of who leads where show a likely Congress win!

In Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK and BJP may be left without a single seat. In Delhi, Congress is set to take 6 out of 7. Rajasthan stuck to the BJP. More soon...

[minionofmidas]

M hm. Fernandes said that much in a press conference.

[minionofmidas]

Left Front headed for best result ever from Kerala.

[minionofmidas]

The Election commission has fewer announced results than you do...
INC 54
BJP 44
INC allies 22
BJP allies 11
Left 8
others 4

[minionofmidas]

The BJP appear to be winning in Karnataka.
Out of 55 announced Assembly constituencies, they took 28, Congress 17, JD (S) 8, JD (U) 1, an Independent 1.
Andhra Pradesh assembly is already fully counted out...
INC 186
TDP 45
TRS 26
CPM 9
CPI 6
AIMIM 5
BJP a paltry 2
JP 2, BSP 1, SP 1, independents 11
In tiny Sikkim, the SDF has won all 26 (of 32) segments announced.
There are only four results from Orissa yet, so the BJD 2, BJP 1, INC 1 tally doesn't mean a thing.

[minionofmidas]

State-by-state...
Jammu & Kashmir
INC 2, NC 2, PDP 1, i 1

Himachal
INC 3, BJP 1

Uttaranchal
BJP 3, INC 1, SP 1

Panjab
SAD 8, BJP 3, INC 2

Chandigarh INC

Haryana
INC 9, BJP 1

Delhi
INC 6, BJP 1

Rajasthan
BJP 21, INC 4

Gujarat
BJP 14, INC 12

Daman & Diu INC

Dadra & Nagar Haveli BNP

Uttar Pradesh
SP 35, BSP 18, BJP 10, INC 9, RLD 3, JD (U) 1, SJP 1, NLP 1, i 1, uncompleted 1 (BSP ahead)

Madhya Pradesh
BJP 25, INC 4

Chhattisgarh
BJP 10, INC 1

Orissa
Biju JD 8, BJP 5, INC 2, JMM 1, uncompleted 5 (of which 3 Biju JD, 2 BJP leads)

Jharkand
INC 5, JMM 4, RJD 2, BJP 1, CPI 1, uncompleted 1 (INC lead)

Bihar
RJD 16, JD (U) 5, BJP 5, LJS 4, INC 3, JD (S) 1, uncompleted 1 (JDU leading), not even begun 3 (there was so much poll violence that the EC is still mulling on whether or not to hold a complete revote and destroy the original result uncounted)

West Bengal
CPM 25, INC 5, CPI 3, FB 3, RSP 3, TC 1, uncompleted 2 (one CPM, one INC lead)

Sikkim SDF

Assam
INC 9, AGP 2, BJP 2, i 1

Meghalaya one INC, one TC
Arunachal BJP tw
Nagaland NPF (leading)
Manipur one INC, one uncounted (same reasons as in Bihar)
Mizoram MNF
Tripura one CPM, one uncompleted (CPM ahead)

Maharashtra
BJP 13, INC 13, Shiv Sena 12, NCP 9, RPI 1

Goa BJP 1, INC 1

Karnataka
BJP 18, INC 8, JD (S) 2

Kerala
18 to the different left front partners (sorry-didnt take down the party breakup), 1 IUML, 1 IFDP

Lakshadweep JD (U)
Andaman & Nicobar Islands INC
Pondicherry PMK

Tamil Nadu
DMK 16, INC 10, PMK 5, MDMK 4, CPM 2, CPI 2

Andhra
INC 29, TRS 5, TDP 5, CPM 1, CPI 1, AIMIM 1

[minionofmidas]

The Karnataka assembly is hung
BJP 79
INC 64 (and leading in the last missing one)
JD (S) 58
JD (U) 5
CPM, KCVP, KNP, RPI one each
Independents 13

Orissa´s Biju JD-BJP government has a marginally reduced majority...
Biju JD 60 plus one counting
BJP 31 pluis one counting
INC 38
JMM 4
OGP 2
CPM 1
CPI 1
independents 8

[minionofmidas]

Results so far:

INC and Allies: 212
NDA: 179
Others: 133

524/543

INC 143 plus 71 allies
BJP 135 + 46 allies
others 133
528/543

[minionofmidas]

Obviously Congress will need some more allies. Even with the Communists theyre falling just short.

[minionofmidas]

I won`t have time to complete this now, but here`s some data on how well my prediction was:
Jammu & Kashmir 3 out of 6
Himachal Pradesh 2 out of 4
Uttaranchal 4 out of 5
Panjab 8 out of 13
Chandigarh 0 out of 1
Haryana 7 out of 10
Delhi 5 out of 7
Rajasthan 19 out of 25
Gujarat 15 out of 26
Daman & Diu 1 out of 1
Dadra & Nagar Haveli 0 out of 1
Madhya Pradesh 28 out of 29!!!
Chattisgarh 10 out of 11
Orissa ca.18 out of 21
Goa 2 out of 2
I`ll do the rest some other day...

[minionofmidas]

I wonder what impact this will have on U.S.-Indian cooperation on the war on Islamism? The BJP strongly stood with the U.S. (well, for Indian politics), whereas Congress is historically anti-U.S. and the Left Front-Communists...well, they're the Left Front-Communists. What more need you say?

I suspect relations will become chillier like with Spain...

Possibly...but expect the changes to be much slighter. India isn't in Iraq now, after all. And the faultlines on the attitude towards the US run through the Congress and the NDA rather then between them (the Communists are another matter, though they too have become much better at attracting American investors).
Oh, Huck: I taught English to High School kids as a volunteer.

[minionofmidas]

This is a ing disaster.  The socialists have had India in poverty for 50 years, and the BJP finall ypulls them out of the rut, brings them closer to the US, and this is the reward they get?  India deserves to be poor, if they keep electing fools who ride on the names of their parents.

Oops, don't we do that? (Kennedy, Taft, Bush, Clinton, Gore...)

India's economic boom only affected urban areas, rural households were still living on the breadline. The BJP made a HUGE mistake by campaigning on its economic record, because many rural communities simply did not recognise the images displayed in the campaign ads. Thus they felt alienated, and regarded the BJP as out of touch.

At any rate, the BJP's record of extreme sectarianism and stoking up religious intolerance meant they were plainly unfit to govern. I'm glad to see India return to secularism, even if that means a quasi-socialist government.

a) The economic liberalization reforms in India were started by the last Congress government (VPN Rao, 91 to 96) and were opposed by the BJP until it came to power. Shows just how absurd some of those comments above are.
b) I looked at detailed results and in many regions, the BJP did worse in the cities.

[minionofmidas]

That part of the BJP you refer to were just hoping for the US to drop support of Pakistan.

India is no ally of the US, never has been. It's never been an ally of the Soviets either. (Funnily, I've encountered that opinions quite a few times coming from the US, though never from anywhere else.)
I remember reading a text by -was it Nehru?- from about 1947 on the question of Socialism and Capitalism, as economic concepts rather than as power blocs, and he basically said India needed every rope and would try both at the same time. Which is pretty much what they did.

[minionofmidas]

That part of the BJP you refer to were just hoping for the US to drop support of Pakistan.

India is no ally of the US, never has been. It's never been an ally of the Soviets either. (Funnily, I've encountered that opinions quite a few times coming from the US, though never from anywhere else.)
I remember reading a text by -was it Nehru?- from about 1947 on the question of Socialism and Capitalism, as economic concepts rather than as power blocs, and he basically said India needed every rope and would try both at the same time. Which is pretty much what they did.

Well, America tried to be nice to both sides after their independence, but India had a snit and so Pakistan reaped the benefits for decades...but given recent years I can see why the BJP thought they had a shot (and a good one at that after 9/11!).

Let's just say events in the late 40's just played out that way - I don't think anybody planned it. Still, it means the US has been propping up a military dictatorship against the "world's largest dictatorship" for most of the last 55 years...and one that's also been taking help - at the same time - from Communist China. Nothing is as simple as it seems...

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That may well be true. I don't know, but it sounds entirely credible.

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They were in favour at first, but by 1942 they had stopped caring about Hitler and were agitating for immediate independence, causing the Brits a lot of trouble that they really could have done without. Some nutcases led by one important pre-war leader, Subhas Chandra Bose, actually allied with and fought for Japan. Bose (who died mysteriously in the final stages of the war) is still an Indian national hero. So are the veterans of his "Indian National Army", must of them POWs taken in Malaya who signed up mostly for the better food. That the British gave them a series of high-profile High Treason trials in 45 & 46 may have helped in building that aura, but I think everybody outside India can agree there's nothing to be proud about for India in this chapter.

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Then again, Indonesia was a democracy under Sukarno...and Indonesians had every reason to be sore at anyone allied to the Netherlands...but yeah, of course it was Anti-Western. It was about organizing the Third World into a power bloc of its own. That is anti-Western.

Leaving out a bit here...

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At least he didn't make the Russian mistake of of forcing the peasants into vast collectives.

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Indian bureaucracy grew under Nehru and his successors, of course, but there's nothing new about it. The British stamp on Indian bureaucracy is still very very obvious - you sometimes get the feelign that, in rural districts at least, officials still believe they're in a poor, hostile, occupied country on a different continent - but even the Brits just built on a pre-existing system. Not that that really excuses anyone, as traditions can be broken.

[minionofmidas]

BREAKING NEWS
Sonia Gandhi apparently not to take over as PM
Manmohan Singh tipped off as most likely replacement

[minionofmidas]

The Karnataka assembly is hung
BJP 79
INC 64 (and leading in the last missing one)
JD (S) 58
JD (U) 5
CPM, KCVP, KNP, RPI one each
Independents 13

JD (S) and INC are trying to cobble up a coalition government, with the CM slot going to JD (S)'s K Siddaramaiah and not to the party's leader, former PM H D Deve Gowda.

[minionofmidas]

The Karnataka assembly is hung
BJP 79
INC 64 (and leading in the last missing one)
JD (S) 58
JD (U) 5
CPM, KCVP, KNP, RPI one each
Independents 13

JD (S) and INC are trying to cobble up a coalition government, with the CM slot going to JD (S)'s K Siddaramaiah and not to the party's leader, former PM H D Deve Gowda.

Forgive my ignorance, but would this a coalition without the Marxists? If so, that sounds pretty good.

Janata Dal are sometimes referred to as Socialists, I don't know exactly on what basis, the pedigree is a bit murky...I don't know if they can be call Marxists, but they are quite critical of economic reforms leaving the peasantry on the shelf. Their party sign is a woman gathering corn. So, I guess not so good from your perspective.

[minionofmidas]

No PM has ever survived a full term in India who was not a Brahmin. Manmohan is a Sikh...and he's considered a nice old man without enemies, trying to hold a big coalition together...I doubt he'll stay in office more than two years. Happy to be proved wrong!