Roughly a 340-198 Obama victory, depending on electoral vote changes.
I see Ensign as a more conservative version of McCain, so this is pretty much the map I'd write except for Nevada. Ensign is a staunch conservative and this would help him hold Arizona. He'd probably win back the conservatives that McCain lost in the Carolinas, though I'm less sure about Indiana. On the other hand, Obama would still crush Ensign in Nevada. My gut says Obama's popularity beats Ensign's there. On the other hand, Obama would probably have the entire northeast locked down (including Pennsylvania), so he could probably go on the offensive and give Ensign a run for his money in the Dakotas and Montana.
