Primaries to watch Tuesday (5/14/24)- Maryland, Nebraska, West Virginia

[WV222]

MD-SEN Dem (Ben Cardin's open seat. It might have been surprising to see only two major candidates in this contest considering the once-in-20-years chance of getting a shot at an open seat in the Senate. Rep. Jamie Raskin, Rep. John Sarbanes, Rep. Kweisi Mufeme all passed on runs. The consequence of that is a straight moderate vs. progressive fight between Rep. David Trone and Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks. The Maryland House Dems delegation (minus Ruppersberger) is backing Alsobrooks, while House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and a boatload of other Dem Reps are sticking to their colleague with Trone. Gov. Wes Moore and the Maryland Dem leadership are heavily backing Alsobrooks. A Alsobrooks win would definitely make Trone in contention for the biggest loser of the night, spending almost 10x Alsobrooks, and carpet bombing the state in ads. Trone was the front-runner for the longest time, with Alsobrooks taking her first lead in an Emerson poll last week. Fun fact- there have been SIXTEEN debates related to the contest: Alsobrooks skipping two and Trone skipping seven.)

MD-SEN GOP (Short blurb to point out that former Gov. Larry Hogan is running here, and might have an outside shot at beating the winner of the Democratic nomination come November. The field cleared for him, with John Teichert dropping out, and the lack of MAGA or hard-right figures fielding or supporting a candidate.)

MD-2 Dem (Short blub to talk about Ruppersberger's open seat. Johnny Olszewski, Baltimore County Executive, has basically cleared the field outside of Del. Harry Bhandari. Olszewski will be a win for the Maryland Dem establishment tomorrow night, in blowout fashion.)

MD-3 Dem (John Sarbanes' open seat. A total free-for-all with a guaranteed seat in Congress come January for the winner. Former USCP Officer Harry Dunn has gotten the backing from a wide range of Reps, from Adam Schiff and Nancy Pelosi to Ayanna Pressley and Pramila Jayapal. However, it might be one of the only times the progressives in Washington are somewhat split, with Sen. Bernie Sanders backing John Morse, who also is getting a lot of labor support (even from Shawn Fain himself). State Sen. Sarah Elfreth is picking up support from Cardin, some unions, and with AIPAC money. This race is looking down to Dunn and Elfreth with Morse potentially spoiling Dunn and Del. Mike Rogers potentially spoiling Elfreth.)

MD-6 Dem (David Trone's open seat. This race has had no polling and could split a few ways. Del. Joe Vogel is running to be the first Gen-Z member of Congress from Maryland, and the 2nd ever. He is very much of the traditional Dem positions, however could be almost Fetterman-like on Israel. Hagerstown Mayor Tekesha Martinez is running basically standard Dem up and down the line. Del. Lesley Lopez can run more to the left if needed. And April McClain-Delaney, wife of previous seatholder John Delaney has governmental experience with the NTIA in the Commerce Department.)

NE-Sen Special GOP (Pete Ricketts should cruise to the renomination from his party in his first test to voters since being appointed to replace Ben Sasse. However, the state GOP has backed John Glen Weaver in this contest.)

NE-2 GOP (Another short blurb, as Rep. Don Bacon should cruise to the renomination, but the state party and its lack of really supporting any incumbents their voters bring to them recently has backed Dan Frei's challenge. If they were successful, it would make it a harder time to retain the tossup seat against Democrat Tony Vargas in the fall.)

NE-3 GOP (Same thing in the 3rd for Rep. Adam Smith as the state party backs John Walz to challenge him.)

WV-SEN GOP (Joe Manchin's open seat. Gov. Jim Justice should romp to a victory in this contest tomorrow night. No matter how many tax bills, repos, or bankruptcy worries Justice has, he seems to continue to get stronger. It will be an embarrassing loss for Rep. Alex Mooney, who came in and has the support of the conservative and hard-right and might not break 30% in a Trump +39 state. No matter even without the Trump or Sen. Shelley Moore Capito endorsement, he still should get more than 30% in a state GOP running hard-right. Mooney has the backing of Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Mike Lee, and Jim Jordan. Justice has Trump, Capito, Mitch McConnell, Tom Cotton, Marsha Blackburn, and Lindsay Graham. State legislators and most national conservative PAC money went to Mooney. Tomorrow night will be the end of Mooney's political life in WV in all likelihood.)

WV-SEN Dem (Even with Joe Manchin's retirement and the spiraling of the WV Democrats, they face a choice of the image of their party tomorrow night. Do they continue down their current road, backing the Mayor of Wheeling Glenn Elliott who Manchin and elected Dems back, or do they go with Zack Shrewsbury a "socialist" or "populist" on economics, pro-gun, ambivalent to more Ukraine funding? Shrewsbury would be the perfect test candidate for a "left-wing populist can make a dent into deep-red areas" theory, especially with his other positions. Richard Ojeda made a major dent in 2018 in the old 3rd district. He just went crazy after. Don Blankenship is also a factor here with more ancestral pro-Trump Democrats. They are less of a factor than they would have been in 2016, but they still are. His bizarre ads could lead to a spoiler effect in general.)

WV-Gov GOP (Jim Justice's open seat. This was a four-way, became a three-way, and into a head-to-head with 2 potential spoilers in the end. Attorney General Patrick Morrisey and former Del. Moore Capito will be the deciding factors in this contest. Morrisey is running as the pure Trump Republican, holding the Biden Admin to account for expanding power, while Capito is running more as a mixture of common sense and Trump-supporting. Chris Miller and Secretary of State Mac Warner will both play spoiler, likely from the right-wing. Morrisey and Capito will battle of moderates and those who want to vote for the lesser of two evils. The more independents their are in the semi-open primary, the more likely Capito takes it.)

WV-1 GOP (Carol Miller is fending off a challenge from Derrick Evans. Evans was a Delegate for one month before resigning after being charged on January 6th offenses. Miller isn't a great candidate from the jump, and toeing the leadership line on Ukraine and budget issues does not help in an R+23 district. Freedom Caucus Chair Rep. Bob Good has even now openly backed Evans. Miller's campaign got worried enough to get a negative ad on the air against Evans in the final 2 weeks of the contest.)

WV-2 GOP (Alex Mooney's open seat. Short blurb to tell you that State Treasurer Riley Moore should get the win here, and at least add one 1 member to the Moore/Capito dynasty to get to Washington. However, retired Air Force brigadier general Chris Walker has been keeping up financially and has even spent more than Moore in the contest.)

[WV222]

I'd add a few things:

MD-Sen D: may have a ideological divide, but that's not the crucial thing. The big distinction is in terms of approach. Alsobrooks someone who has done the work, made the allies, and comes from the party. Trone has none of that, and never bothered with it cause cash can be wielded as a sledgehammer when you have enough of it. There's also the racial and geographic divides, cause those are very much things in MD primaries. Trone will dominate his district - though there are few Dem voters outside of northern Montgomery and Frederick, and Alsobrooks will sweep the much more vote rich PG county.

The more interesting thing is from the perspective of academic studies. The Alsobrooks campaign decided to attempt a targeted appeal that basically surrendered all ad space until the just recently. Advertising like normal would just see their appeal get buried by Trone's millions, so instead the campaign dedicated ads mainly to this period before the election. Obviously there are efforts besides just ads that are taking place below the surface, but the result paired with the contrast in strategy will be an excellent future case study.


WV-Sen D: I could cite numerous examples of how the the so-called 'rural progressive' approach isn't a thing. But that doesn't mean the race isn't interesting. There are plenty of past examples because in uber-GOP areas (and Rs in Uber-Dem ones) the only people who bother to show up for the Dem primary usually are the die-hard most committed. People who won't ever think of registering just to participate in the others primary, even though that would give them more influence. Their little known but ideologically pure candidate then goes on to lose by something close to the partisan baseline. Shrewsbury's candidacy is a test of whether West Virginia has hit that point. Given how many present Republican voters here though still possess Dem registrations - and this fact likely gives Blakenship more of an in - I doubt the state has reached this point of perpetual party isolation, but it may have.

WV-GOV R: It has been pegged less as a fight of ideology and more family dynasties. Which is reminiscent of southern states in the recent past. When those who were with the GOP even when it was losing suddenly are the beneficiaries of a national shift, there isn't enough time for anyone other than them to suddenly emerge in power. It takes time for the 'new arrivals' to win offices and get in a position to capitalize on their voters. It's taken even longer here of course cause many of these newer GOP voters are still registered Dems. Morrissey's 2018 primary win also suggests a geographic divide will emerge, with him winning the southern vote and Moore likely winning the panhandle that was long loyal to the GOP - like his family.

WV-Sen R: Again, don't forget the geographic divide cause that's going to be a strong factor here. Mooney has always been known as a carpetbagger, and so he tries to paste that over with other ideological fronts. But his carpetbagging worked cause he moved into the Panhandle district from adjacent Maryland. He won his incumbent vs incumbent 2022 primary for the merged district cause of his strength off the Panhandle. And remember, that area has oversized strength in GOP primaries, but it can't outvote every other county. Which is probably what the results will look like: a tight or Mooney-won panhandle and a Justice victory elsewhere.

Thank you for the insights into the races, and they provide additional context.

I would challenge you a little on the WV-Sen Dem. Shrewsbury is for sure not the standard "rural progressive". I don't think Marcus Flowers was pro gun rights, and would be not fully on board funding Ukraine. Shrewsbury had those things. He won't win, but we saw Ojeda in 2018. I also don't think Elliott has to win or else the state party is the level of Wyoming's for example. If anything, the base has gotten more mad with the Manchin wing of the party since 2018, and I do think the electeds would fall in line with a Shrewsbury nomination. I don't know how it shakes out tomorrow night though. Elliott could definitely still win this thing.