The scenario isn't based on if Kerry had been elected in 2004, only that he was nominated a second time in 2008.
Excuse my ignorance Sir. I thought it was a scenario where Kerry was elected in 2004, not re-nominated in 2008. However, if Senator Kerry was nominated for a second time in 2008 he would be leading Senator McCain in the polls, however I doubt he would be in the same position as Senator Obama is in now.
You're likely right. The only presidential candidate in recent history that could shadow Kerry's ineptitude is John McCain.
Oh I don't know. Kerry gets a bit of a bum rap. Bush was the favorite in '04, with an approval rating that hovered at about 50% -- which is basically what he got.
Kerry's a bit of a windbag and he doesn't have a lot of charisma, but he did an effective job of uniting the Democratic Party behind him and he crushed Bush in all three debates. He was the candidate with the momentum in the closing 6 weeks of the race, closing a 5-10 point Bush lead to a dead heat by election day.
Overall, McCain's campaign makes Kerry's (and Gore's) campaigns seem like geniuses.
Kerry's self-inflicted problems were the dallying response to the swift boats, the snorefest Dem convention, and several wounding statements about Iraq, namely (1) his statement that he would have "still" voted for the war, and (2) his for-it-before-he-was-against-it line.
Overall, though my own feeling is that Kerry did fairly well under the circumstances and I doubt any of the other '04 contenders would have done as well as he did. Edwards might have, but it was a national security election, not an economy election, and I doubt Edwards would have thrived in that context.
As for the subject of this thread -- Kerry would be ahead (I'd think pretty much any mainstream Dem would be ahead right now) -- but not by anywhere near as much as Obama. Kerry by 3-4 points, with narrow leads in Ohio and Florida.
As someone who defends Kerry from a lot of grief, there is no way he'd be doing better than Obama right now. Obama is simply a once-in-a-generation talent who is extremely well-positioned for this moment in time. And he's running the best presidential campaign in decades.
