Good thing this aid passed with veto-proof majorities in both houses, so Trump can't single-handedly put a stop to it is he wins in November!
If Trump wins and Congress passes aid over his veto threats, he will try to defy Congress and simply decline to send the authorized aid, or to deliberately do so much more slowly than intended (maybe he sends in in a few years after it is passed or something, after it is too late).
Trump attempted to freeze/delay/limit aid to Ukraine in his first term (related to his first impeachment, among other things) and will try to do so again. In a second term, he would also be less constrained and more able to simply ignore checks upon him that Congress or the courts try to impose.
Trump wins I think we'd get peace relatively quick and it (due to removal of aid) and it would serve Zelenskyy and the rest of NATO pretty well to blame him for the loss. Although realistically it's not that different from the fall of South Vietnam and the Afghan government in 2021 where ironically Biden said he did not want to leave that war to fight for another American President.
Biden wins everyone in the West would lose their scapegoat for the loss and any Ukrainian defeat or negotiated peace that leaves the Ukrainians a little bitter on what they have to accept from 2025-29 would be forced to find another host to blame.
Personally I feel that a Korea-like ceasefire is more likely than a formal peace agreement, since neither side would have to recognize the other's territorial claims.
I could see a formal peace agreement happening that is on unfavorable terms for Ukraine if Trump wins. An agreement involving Ukraine formally losing territory, but surviving as an independent state. Similar to Finland in the Winter War.
Though, I'm not sure Russia would play ball. If they know Trump is cutting or ending US aid to Ukraine, why make a peace deal now when Russia could simply take more territory from a weakened Ukraine in the future? Agreeing to a peace deal or ceasefire in that situation would only allow Ukraine to build defenses and strengthen its military, making any future territorial gains more difficult.
