European Parliament elections, June 2024

[Storr]

I decided to estimate the number of MEPs the 3 countries closest to joining the EU would receive if they did so now or before the 2024 elections. Technically Serbia is closer to joining the EU than Albania and North Macedonia when it comes to the number of acquis chapters opened and closed. But, Serbia will not join the bloc as long as the Kosovo dispute is unresolved. The demographic numbers are from wikipedia, so usual caveats apply.

Montenegro:        2022 population 617,213  -   6 MEPs (the minimum for any member)

North Macedonia: 2022 population 1,831,712 - 9 MEPs (same as Latvia, pop. 1,883,008)

Albania:              2022 population 2,777,689 - 11 MEPs (same as Lithuania, pop. 2,857,279)

Added on top of the proposed 15 new MEPs for the upcoming 2024 elections, the hypothetical 26 EU expansion MEPs would result in a European Parliament with a size of 746 members. Interestingly, that's quite close to the pre-Brexit composition of 751 MEPs.

[Storr]

LOL:

"BREAKING: Charles Michel to pull out of EU election race"

"Michel’s surprise decision to run in the European parliamentary elections in June, which would have meant leaving his post months before the end of his term, prompted furious reactions from EU officials, European diplomats and Parliament.

Officials perceived his surprise announcement as a signal that he attached more importance to his political future than to his current role as head of the European Council."

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1750944543011156371?s=20

[Storr]

One of the key figures in Qatargate (we need to stop adding -gate to name of every scandal) Greek MEP Eva Kaili decided to not run for reelection. I doubt it was a coincidence the announcement came three days after she was stripped of her parliamentary immunity.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eva-kaili-qatargate-scandal-eu-wont-run-in-eu-election/

Also this isn't a huge deal but a Sweden Democrat MEP threatened that his party would leave ECR if Fidesz (Victor Orban's party) joined the group. The Sweden Democrats have 3 MEPs while Fidesz has 12.

https://www.politico.eu/article/sweden-democrats-threaten-to-quit-right-wing-eu-group-erc-if-orban-joins/

[Storr]

Greece: Ruling party New Democracy has chosen an imprisoned Greek Albanian mayor-elect to run on their EU election list in June. Fredi Beleri was jailed on a two year sentence for vote buying in the Himarë, Albania mayoral election. Because he's an ethnic Greek in Albania, he's become a cause célèbre among Greek nationalists. This is an obvious attempt by New Democracy to counter (or tap into, if you're more cynical) the far right/nationalist rise in Greece.

"Beleri was elected mayor of Himarë, a bastion of the ethnic Greek community, in the May 14 local elections last year. He was arrested only two days earlier while allegedly offering 40,000 Albanian leks ($390 at the time) to buy eight votes.

Ultimately, Beleri beat the Socialist candidate Jorgo Goro by 19 votes. He could not be sworn in while under arrest. His supporters insist he is a victim of a political trap set by Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialists. It’s a notion that Rama himself has dismissed as “delusional.”"

"Athens has been pressing Tirana for his release and for him to be sworn in even if this happens in jail, but so far to no avail.

Albania’s suspicions about Beleri run deep, often asserting he was involved with an irredentist militant terror network. In 1995 — the year after an attack that killed two Albanian soldiers — he was arrested and sentenced in Greece to three years on probation for complicity over the possession of weapons."

In classic Balkan fashion:

"In the meantime, Goro, the mayor of Himarë, was also arrested in April on corruption charges. He had been accused by Beleri of producing fake documents to obtain government land and create a resort. Blerina Bala from the Socialist group has been appointed acting mayor."

https://www.politico.eu/article/greece-government-eu-election-wild-card-albania-jail-fredi-beleri/

[Storr]

Unsurprisingly, putting a 23 year old as your lead candidate for the EU elections has not gone well for  Austria's Green Party:

"The “Schilling affair,” as Austrian newspapers have dubbed it, began in early May when local media published a series of reports casting doubt on the former activist’s suitability for the role. Although tabloids happily jumped on the story, much of the reporting was led by Der Standard, a sober broadsheet.

In its article kicking off the media storm, Der Standard portrayed Schilling as having “a problematic relationship with the truth,” with multiple anonymous sources accusing her of spreading damaging rumors about friends, allies and journalists.

The report’s key piece of evidence: A cease-and-desist order, signed by Schilling, that stated the politician faced a €20,000 fine if she repeated false claims that a former friend’s husband had been violent to the point of causing his wife to have a miscarriage.

Schilling says she had simply been concerned for her friend, and shared her worries with her close circle. “That was passed on … I apologized. I wanted to clarify that this should never [have] become public, so I agreed to sign a settlement,” which “was leaked by other people.”

Last week, Der Standard published another bombshell: Based on text messages and an affidavit, the newspaper reported that Schilling had allegedly discussed ditching the Greens after getting elected to the European Parliament to join the far-left faction instead. "

...

"What followed was a crisis communications disaster of epic proportions. The Greens — who currently govern Austria in an uneasy coalition with the conservatives — initially dismissed the reports, prompting an outcry.

Green Vice Chancellor Walter Kogler denounced the allegations as “anonymous grumbles and farts.” He later apologized for the crude expression."

...

"After the second set of leaked chats that cast doubt on her Greens loyalty, the party switched to counterattack mode. The allegations, senior party members suggested, were part of a sinister conspiracy against Schilling, spread by other left-wing politicians.

In a press conference widely described as a PR debacle, Greens Secretary-General Olga Voglauer used a term seen as having antisemitic connotations while implying that the Social Democrats were involved in spreading the allegations. Voglauer was forced to apologize, but her comment had already sent the Greens’ campaign spiraling."

[Storr]

"The first votes have been cast in the European Parliament election.

The official election dates are June 6 to 9, with most countries going to the polls on Sunday (June 9). But Estonia has a three-day head start, with voting allowed starting Monday — from 9 a.m. online and from midday in person."

"By 4.45 p.m., more than 18,000 votes had been cast: more than 12,700 online and almost 6,000 on paper."

[Storr]

Hungary having an election that's anywhere remotely close to being competitive? I guess cows do fly after all. 45% would be Fidesz/KDNP's worst ever EP election result. 2004 is the current low, where they received 47.40% of the vote.

"Hungary, Závecz poll:

European Parliament election

Fidesz/KDNP-NI|EPP: 45% (+6) 11 MEP (-2)
TISZA→EPP: 27% (+1) 7 MEP (+7)
DK/MSZP/P-S&D-G/EFA: 11% (-6) 2 MEP (-3)
MH~NI: 5% (-1) 1 MEP (+1)
Momentum-RE: 4% 0 MEP (-2)
MKKP→G/EFA: 3%
LMP-G/EFA: 2% (+1)
MMN→EPP: 1% (-1)
2RK-*: 1%
Jobbik-NI: 1% 0 MEP (-1)

+/- vs. 2-10 May 2024 [MEPs vs. 2019 EP election]

Fieldwork: 24 May - 2 June 2024
Sample size: 1,000
➤ https://europeelects.eu/hungary"

[Storr]

Who said it was going to be 35% aside from Maurice de Hond (he is usually wrong)

De Hond, and he isn't 'usually wrong' at all. Common talking point because of his controversial record as an opinion maker, but his polling record isn't worse than Ipsos-I&O's (not is it better; they're both valuable data points, each have their own house effects but both are quite reliable and accurate).

Turnout at 17:45 was 29%, compared to 24% last time.

Looking it up for the first time, I noticed total 2019 Dutch EP election turnout was the highest since 1989 when it was 47.48%. It would appear turnout will most likely not reach 47% this year, but ~45% would still be highest turnout in decades. I find it interesting that Dutch EP election turnout decreased 12 percentage points from the 1989 to 1994 elections which had 35.69% turnout, and has never fully recovered. Was there any particular reason for that significant drop in turnout?

[Storr]

The latest in something we have definitely never seen before, a right-wing party candidate has been caught making the Nazi salute and admitted to having a "historical collection of Nazi artefacts, some of which include a dagger with the SS symbol or a candlestick with swastikas". This time it was the lead EU election candidate for the Czech "right-wing alliance of parties The Oath and Motorists (Přísaha a Motoristé sobě)", Filip Turek.

[Storr]

To me, this Peter Magyar figure strikes me as a Hungarian version of Emmanuel Macron. A young, charismatic outsider who is actually an insider comes out of nowhere, avoids the left-right divide, appeals most to liberal people but doesn't seem left-wing themselves.

Of course it's very early and Hungary is an electoral autocracy so there would need to be a huge groundswell for change to even have a hope of overthrowing the Orban regime, but I wonder if this first impression of mine makes sense.

For what it's worth, today EPP leader Manfred Weber has all but invited Magyar's party TISZA to join the group, saying "our doors are open" and that he would be "very glad” to collaborate with Magyar.

I suppose it makes sense the party founded by a former Fidesz "insider" would fit in with the European Parliament alliance Fidesz used to be a member of.

https://www.politico.eu/article/epp-eu-elections-viktor-orban-manfred-weber-former-ally-peter-magyar/

[Storr]

The 21:00 exit poll for the Netherlands has GL-PvdA at 8, PVV at 7. There will be an update at 21:30.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1798793598986801633

Maurice de Hond is live here and will present prognoses with updates throughout the evening. Don't expect many results before 23:00, though.

Spirits appear to be high at the GL-PvdA exit poll party:

[Storr]

I don't know if this is last Ipsos exit poll of the night, but since it's the most recent Ipsos one posted on Europe Elects, I'm sharing it: 

"Netherlands, European Parliament election today:

Ipsos-I&O 9:30 PM exit poll, seats

GL/PvdA-G/EFA|S&D: 8
PVV-ID: 7
VVD-RE: 4
CDA-EPP: 3
D66-RE: 3
BBB→EPP: 2
Volt-G/EFA: 1
PvdD-LEFT: 1
NSC→EPP: 1
SGP-ECR: 1
CU-EPP: 0
50PLUS-RE: 0
FvD-NI: 0"

[Storr]

Today Andre Ventura, the leader of CHEGA, compared himself to the dictator Salazar:

"“When I was little, my grandmother used to say that things had gotten so bad that ‘this can now only be fixed by two Salazars,’ and she was right,” Ventura said to followers in the northern city of Braga.

“I’m proud to say that folks know that they don’t need any Salazar at all, because now people say ‘this can only be fixed with Ventura, and if we have Ventura, order will finally return to this country.”"

https://www.politico.eu/article/european-elections-2024-live-updates/

[Storr]

Germany had 32% turnout at noon and in person. There's a record participation for mail-in-voting.

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen projecting record turnout:

Germany, European Parliament electoral history:

Final turnout

1979: 65.7%
1984: 56.8%
1989: 62.3%
1994: 60.0%
1999: 45.2%
2004: 43.0%
2009: 43.3%
2014: 48.1%
2019: 61.4%
2024: 66%

[Storr]

If accurate, this would be Fidesz/KDNP's worst ever European Parliament election result:

"Hungary, 21 kutatóközpont poll:

European Parliament election

Fidesz/KDNP-NI|EPP: 44% (-9)
TISZA→EPP: 32% (new)
DK/MSZP/P-S&D|G/EFA: 8% (-15)
MH~NI: 7% (+4)
MKKP~G/EFA: 4% (+1)
Momentum-RE: 3% (-7)
MMN→EPP: 1% (new)
2RK-*: 1% (new)

+/- vs. 2019 election

Fieldwork: 6-8 June 2024
Sample size: 1,000"

[Storr]

What is going on in Finland?

Green and far Right voters end up turning to the same opposition party each for their own sperate (but understandable) reasons. Throw in a bit of differential midterm-style turnout.

LOL: "The Left Alliance could spring an evening surprise, with the early count showing the party in second place with three seats in the early counting — an increase of two seats. “I am in shock,” said Left Alliance leader Li Andersson."

https://www.politico.eu/article/european-elections-2024-live-updates/#1297683

[Storr]

Macron dissolves the National Assembly

I


did not see that coming

I guess he's trying to pull a Sanchez, mobilizing voters against the far-right?

[Storr]

Poland, European Parliament election today:

Ipsos exit poll: seats count (53 total)

KO-EPP|RE|G/EFA: 21
PiS-ECR: 19
Kon~NI|ID: 6
TD PL2050/PSL-RE|EPP: 4
Lewica-S&D: 3

[Storr]

Italy (European Parliament election), EMG-Noto-Piepoli exit poll:

FdI-ECR: 26-30%
PD-S&D: 21-25%
M5S-NI: 10-14%
FI/NM-EPP: 8.5-10.5%
LEGA-ID: 8-10%
AVS-LEFT|G/EFA: 5-7%
SUE-RE|S&D: 3.5-5.5%
A-RE: 2.5-4.5%
PTD-LEFT|G/EFA: 1-3%
L-*: 0-2%

[Storr]

Another record turnout:

Czechia, European Parliament electoral history

Final turnout

2004: 28.3%
2009: 28.2%
2014: 18.2%
2019: 28.7%
2024: 36.5% (Interior Ministry projection)

[Storr]

Another record turnout:

Czechia, European Parliament electoral history

Final turnout

2004: 28.3%
2009: 28.2%
2014: 18.2%
2019: 28.7%
2024: 36.5% (Interior Ministry projection)

Romania, European Parliament electoral history:

Final Turnout

2007: 29.4%
2009: 27.6%
2014: 32.4%
2019: 51.0%
2024: 52.4%

Source: http://prezenta.roaep.ro

[Storr]

Czechia, European Parliament election:

Final result: popular vote

ANO-RE: 26.1% (+3.9)
Spolu-ECR|EPP: 22.3% (+0.5)
PaM→ECR: 10.2% (new)
Stačilo!-LEFT: 9.6% (+2.7)
STAN-EPP: 8.7% (-3.0)
Piráti-Greens/EFA: 6.2% (-7.80)
SPD-ID: 5.7% (-3.4)
PRO-NI: 2.2% (new)
SocDem-S&D: 1.9% (-2.1)
Svobodní-NI: 1.8% (+1.1)
Zelení-Greens/EFA: 1.6% (new)

+/- vs. 2019 election


Final result: seats

ANO-RE: 7 (+2)
Spolu -ECR|EPP: 5 (-2)
PaM→ECR: 2 (new)
Stačilo!-LEFT: 2 (+1)
STAN-EPP: 2 (+1)
PIRÁTI-Greens/EFA: 1 (-2)
SPD-ID: 1 (-2)

+/- vs. 2019 election

[Storr]

"Slovakia, European Parliament election:

Popular vote, Final results

PS-RE: 28% (+8)
Smer-NI: 25% (+9)
Republika-NI: 13% (new)
Hlas~NI: 7% (new)
KDH-EPP: 7% (-3)
SaS-ECR: 5% (-5)
D-EPP: 5% (n.a.)
MA-EPP: 4% (-1)
S/ZĽ-EPP: 2% (-3)
SNS-ID: 2% (-5)
KÚ-ECR: 1% (-3)
ĽSNS-NI: 1% (-12)
ZR-*:1% (new)

+/- vs. 2019 election"


"Seats, Final result

PS-RE: 6 (+4)
Smer-NI: 5 (+2)
Republika-NI: 2 (new)
Hlas~NI: 1 (new)
KDH-EPP: 1 (-1)
SaS-ECR: 0 (-2)
S/ZĽ-EPP: 0 (-1)
D-EPP: 0 (-2)
ĽSNS-NI: 0 (-2)

+/- vs. 2019 election"

[Storr]

So far it looks like Fidesz is weakening (down 9% on 2019). An ironic twist that the far-right populist wave isn't being felt in their heartland.

"Hungary, European Parliament election today:

76% of the polling stations counted

Fidesz/KDNP-NI|EPP: 44.0% (-8.6)
TISZA→EPP: 30.3% (new)
DK/MSZP/P-S&D|G/EFA: 8.3% (-14.4)
MH~NI: 6.7% (+3.4)
Momentum-RE: 3.6% (-6.2)
MKKP→G/EFA: 3.5% (+0.9)
Jobbik-NI: 1.0% (-5.4)
LMP-G/EFA: 0.9% (-1.3)
MMN→EPP: 0.7% (new)
2RK-*: 0.7% (new)
MeMo-*: 0.4% (new)

+/- vs. 2019 election

Source: National Election Office"

[Storr]

Slovenia's Jansa calls on Prime Minister Golob to make "the same consideration as Macron" after his opposition party SDS won the country's EP elections by nearly 10 percentage points.