Russian electoral-type events 2023-24

[Storr]

I had a thought earlier that maybe all that went on in the past 24 hours was a ploy by Prigozhin to increase his popularity in preparation for a run for President in 2024.

It would explain why he decided to stop his drive to Moscow, because the effort was an attempt to send a message to the public instead of making a real attempt at regime change. That he's the one trying to fight the incompetent corrupt military brass. That he's the one that can actually lead Russia to glory. That he's the one who'd actually fight the elites, etc.

And to be fair, now that as part of his deal the insurrection charges are being dropped, he can legally run for office.

[I don't think this is likely, but it would explain why Prigozhin seemingly gave up after making a seemingly weak deal. IMO what probably happened is that Evgeny got mad after the MoD announced regulations that were going to put PMCs under MoD control. ]

[Storr]

Wait, we didn't want the election to seem that legitimate:

"The Kremlin seemed relaxed about uncharismatic Boris Nadezhdin – until his stance against the war in Ukraine became a rallying point for thousands of Russians.

Now, surprise surprise, he’s set to be barred from challenging Putin on technical grounds [15% of the signatures he gathered to run for President were ruled "invalid", only up to 5% are allowed to be invalid]."

"Political analysts argue it is implausible that Nadezhdin’s campaign was not approved by the Kremlin, at least in the early stages. In the past the Putin regime has allowed handpicked figures to run for president in order to convey legitimacy to the electoral process."

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1754563112915939407?s=20

[Storr]

"Russia's Central Election Commission has agreed to give Nadezhdin one extra day to build his case that 4,500 of the 9k-odd "bad signatures" in his candidacy registration paperwork are actually okay. Thursday will be the big day."

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1754845067154469107?s=20