MN: Harper Polling (R) - Biden +3

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Biden is melting. Trump will win Minnesota.

Trump may have a shot at Minnesota, but an R-internal that still shows Biden up by over a point or two probably isn't the best metric.

(Although Biden literally melting is a rather amusing but horrifying mental image).  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I remember Harper being decent in 2016, but obviously take R internal with grain of salt.  I still don’t really think Trump should invest here over Michigan.

I can actually see an argument for that.  IMO, Minnesota has more room for a "rurals canceling out the metros"-type situation than Michigan (barring a 2016-type situation). 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I remember Harper being decent in 2016, but obviously take R internal with grain of salt.  I still don’t really think Trump should invest here over Michigan.

Hasn't the Trump campaign already triaged Michigan?

I'm still waiting for at least a couple more weeks to see how the Trump campaign handles Michigan before declaring it a triage.

Having said that, I figured he was pulling advertising in an attempt to retool, but I haven't seen anything to indicate that his campaign is planning on going on a new ad blitz there. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I remember Harper being decent in 2016, but obviously take R internal with grain of salt.  I still don’t really think Trump should invest here over Michigan.

Hasn't the Trump campaign already triaged Michigan?

They're not abandoning Michigan completely but more resources were diverted to MN presumably because of either 1.) better polling; 2.) smaller state so cheaper to campaign in; 3.) that Trump is a "trophy collector" and wants MN as a prize. The trade-off between these two is a larger African American population versus more college educated whites  

Also, ad buys in the major MN media markets essentially double dip and have visibility in Wisconsin too.  An ad in Duluth will be seen by Superior and other areas in northern WI.  An ad in the Twin Cities will be seen all the way from St. Croix Falls to Hudson to Menominee to Prescott.  And an ad in Rochester will be seen in La Crosse.

I think people sometimes forget how joined-at-the-hip neighboring areas of MN and WI can be.