I’ll say it again;
The people who disaprove of Biden are left democrats and republicans. I can easily see Biden winning with low approvals because a large segment of the people who disapprove of him absolutely despise and fear a Trump presidency.
If Biden can make some way on economic issues he’ll be set, he just has to get the left democrats who disapprove to turn out
I'm still clinging to this as well. I don't think polls are properly capturing how hated Trump really is by most of the country. It's an identity for many. Biden being "disapproved of" does not necessarily equate him with being as virulently hated (unless you're a Republican). Realistically, I don't see Biden getting less than 48% of the popular vote. It just becomes a matter of how much he needs to beat Trump in it by.
However, what is it going to take for the nose-holders to get on board, and be reflected in polling? Trump is on trial and openly aspiring to authoritarianism. What more are they waiting for?
The closer to the election we get the higher Biden’s polling will be when people run out of time to hem and haw about how bad both are. When the proverbial Trump gun is to their heads they’ll break for Biden.
One thing skewing the data is Kennedy. I’d be comfortable as a rule of thumb taking 50-60% of Kennedy’s “voters” and adding them to Biden. He’s due to collapse like Perot did in 92. People like the idea of third parties, but usually they loose support as the election gets closer
