2030 Reapportionment: Nightmare Scenario for Democrats? (user search)
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  2030 Reapportionment: Nightmare Scenario for Democrats? (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2030 Reapportionment: Nightmare Scenario for Democrats?  (Read 981 times)
Born to Slay. Forced to Work.
leecannon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

« on: March 03, 2024, 08:59:38 PM »

Nothing is more democratic then dooming about events six years out
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Born to Slay. Forced to Work.
leecannon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

« Reply #1 on: March 05, 2024, 01:50:07 AM »

TBH, I don't think the House would be the problem for Democrats with this allocation.  A lot of the gaining R states are presently maxed out and the probability of having a say in Georgia is pretty high.  

The problem is the presidency.  It's really the South or bust!  Even this is a Republican win on that EC map:



I think EC depends on if these sunbelt states like GA and AZ projected to gain seats continue to shift D long term. If by the end of the decade AZ and GA are out of reach for the GOP and they’re struggling in TX, then the GOP is in pretty big EC trouble overall, even if they make gains in the rust belt and NV

My vibe is that Georgia will become like Virginia, safe for democrats but occasionally can struggle statewide while Arizona is gonna stay a swing state federally and statewide

North Carolina is the biggest wild card imo
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