His campaign has been in a death spiral ever since they picked Palin.
So...his two week lead in the polls was what exactly...?
Generally, when you go into some sort of death spiral, you start from high up. If you began your death spiral while on the ground, the chances of death would be significantly lower. It would merely be a run-of-the-mill spiral. There might not even be time to spiral, without a good few seconds in the air. Hopefully my metaphor's getting through here.
So how did he start a death spiral when he picked her and then got the lead a week or so after picking her?
I think the argument is that, except for an initial 2-week grace period, Palin has largely had a negative effect on the ticket. You can argue with that, but the past week of controversy and her rapid decline in poll numbers certainly seems to support that. I don't know if you can blame the entire "death spiral" of the past week or so on Palin (you probably can't), but she certainly isn't helping.
Now, if McCain had picked Mitt, he'd be on every news network right now pretending to be a savvy businessman, and the media would be eating it up.