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June 07, 2024, 04:48:47 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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Author Topic: 538.com map  (Read 52738 times)
Lief 🗽
Lief
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Posts: 45,023
« on: September 20, 2008, 07:57:59 PM »
West Virginia:

1996: Democrats take the state by 15 points.
2000: Republicans take the by 6 points.

That's a 21 point swing. It's definitely possible, especially when McCain looks to be completely ignoring the state.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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*****
Posts: 45,023
« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2008, 07:15:05 PM »
As of today's update, the chance of a McCain win of any sort (21.5%) is less than the chance of an Obama landslide (21.8%). Grin
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Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,023
« Reply #2 on: September 28, 2008, 08:44:05 PM »
Chance of McCain Victory: 19.5%
Chance of Obama Landslide: 25.54%
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Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,023
« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2008, 07:34:00 PM »
Once you start leading by 3-4 points, the chance that you lose the EC becomes close to 0. If anything, 15% is a bit high, I would think. McCain would basically need to win FL, OH, NC, VA, MO, IN, NV and CO/NH+ME2, all of which are currently 50/50 or tilted Obama.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,023
« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2008, 09:16:03 PM »
I don't know if KeyKeeper intends to keep doing this, but I'll try and pick it up if he doesn't mind; looking back on these maps is interesting.

October 3rd



Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 338
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 163
Toss-up: 37

Snapshot



Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 364
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 174

0-3 point lead = 30%, 3-6 point lead = 40%, 6-10 point lead = 60%, 10+ point lead = 80%
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Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,023
« Reply #5 on: October 04, 2008, 08:09:55 PM »
October 4th



Changes
In McCain's Favor:
Maine: Safe Dem to Likely Dem

In Obama's Favor:
None

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 338
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 163
Toss-up: 37

Snapshot



Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 364
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 174

0-3 point lead = 30%, 3-6 point lead = 40%, 6-10 point lead = 60%, 10+ point lead = 80%
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Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,023
« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2008, 06:58:46 PM »
October 5th



Changes
In McCain's Favor:
None

In Obama's Favor:
SOUTH CAROLINA from SAFE McCain to LIKELY McCain
MONTANA from LIKELY McCain to LEAN McCain
NEW HAMPSHIRE from LEAN Obama to LIKELY Obama
VIRGINIA from LEAN Obama to LIKELY Obama

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 338
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 163
Toss-up: 37

Snapshot



Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 375 (+11)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 163 (-11)

0-3 point lead = 30%, 3-6 point lead = 40%, 6-10 point lead = 60%, 10+ point lead = 80%
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Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,023
« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2008, 03:16:02 PM »
Stupid Nate Silver, updating for today before I get the chance to update for yesterday.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,023
« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2008, 08:33:42 PM »
That's beautiful.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,023
« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2008, 06:12:50 PM »
Obama Marches Toward Victory

DEVELOPING....
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Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,023
« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2008, 06:25:14 PM »
You got Nevada wrong, but yeah.
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