Oh God.
Look, these polls, especially the summer ones, have all kinds of internal screw ups. McCain gets like 20% of the black vote in NC in the polls released. Does that mean that he'll get 20% of the black vote in NC in November? Obama won't improve on Kerry's white vote numbers because Edwards is not on the ticket and the old, white Dixiecrats who still vote Dem will not vote for a black guy. It just isn't going to happen.
Yea, but you have new voters voting this year. Kids my age, 20.. who didn't get to vote in 2004, who would vote for a black guy. Plus you have the new comers to the state from NY, NJ, MI ect who would also vote for a black guy. I am not saying he will get 32%, but I do think he will do better then Kerry's 27%.
And in 2004 we had millions of kids who could vote for the first time, 20 years old, and they didn't bother turning out. This is the case every time. Just because there are people fainting over Obama's message of hope and change and the call for a new kind of politics, doesn't mean these kids your age will turnout. They never have in the past.
Yeah, until they did in Iowa and every primary and caucus after that.