Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Lief 🗽]

Ah, clearly McCain is the stronger candidate. I concede the election to you, good sir.

[Lief 🗽]

Friday, September 26, 2008
Obama 48% (+2)
McCain 45% (-1)

Good stuff. McCain really needs to win the debate tonight.

[Lief 🗽]

McCain is finished.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama 50 (+1)
McCain 42 (-2)

[Lief 🗽]

Gallup:   50 - 42
Diaego:  47 - 42
R2k/DK: 50 - 43
Rass:     50 - 44
Average: 49.25 - 42.75

Obama +6.5

[Lief 🗽]

McCain should be tied by Friday.

[Lief 🗽]

LV (new voter formula)
Obama 53
McCain 43

LV (traditional)
Obama 51
McCain 45

which one is better?

Since they really don't describe how they come to a determination, it is hard for me to say what exactly the method is and why one should be better.  My question for Vorlon to ask Gallup is which of the 13 questions do they remove in the new model.

I note that the traditional determination (for today) produces a 76.6% RV turnout, whereas the new voter model produces an 82.0% RV turnout.

RV turnout in 2004 was 72.9%.  Therefore, I would tend to go with the traditional model.

yes, and given the excitement in the GOP base for Palin, I would think it's closer to the traditional model.

Obama has shattered the blindness he once preached of ending the war and bringing all the troops home, so I think the youth vote (which rarely materializes anyway) is not going to markedly increase over 2004 levels.

Yeah, youth voters are hardly single issue. They still care about the environment, the economy, healthcare, education, etc. and they're still pretty damn excited.

[Lief 🗽]

The young showed up in the primaries. Why would they suddenly stop?

[Lief 🗽]

The young showed up in the primaries. Why would they suddenly stop?

Keep telling people that this race is over and that Obama is running away with it. We'll be eternally grateful.

I've never said that, Obama has never said that, the media won't ever say that.

[Lief 🗽]

The young showed up in the primaries. Why would they suddenly stop?

Keep telling people that this race is over and that Obama is running away with it. We'll be eternally grateful.

I've never said that

McCain is finished.

lol, I was making fun of JJ.

[Lief 🗽]

The young showed up in the primaries. Why would they suddenly stop?

One obvious reason is living in a different city.  Perhaps 20% graduated and moved on.

Do you lose your right to vote when you graduate?

You do tend to lose your residence.  In the US, you have to re-register at the new address.

Yeah, good thing the Obama campaign didn't spend the summer and fall registering millions of voters.

[Lief 🗽]

The young showed up in the primaries. Why would they suddenly stop?

One obvious reason is living in a different city.  Perhaps 20% graduated and moved on.

Do you lose your right to vote when you graduate?

You do tend to lose your residence.  In the US, you have to re-register at the new address.

Yeah, good thing the Obama campaign didn't spend the summer and fall registering millions of voters.

Some of those younger people registered at home, and forgot to file for an absentee ballot; some get the application and forget to file it on time because they have a term paper due.  Some graduate, move on, and don't re-register.  Some move to different apartment in another precinct and forget to re-register.  Those little things may have an effect, just maybe a few 1000 here and there, but it makes a difference.

Those things can happen to non-young people also. 20-year-olds aren't lazier or stupider than the rest of the population.

[Lief 🗽]

And recent history, this year in fact, shows us that young people can and do vote.

[Lief 🗽]

I think the race has settled into something like Obama +5-7. We're going to see a little movement around the edges in the next couple days, but unless something big happens, it'll all just be float within the MoE.

[Lief 🗽]

Good stuff.

[Lief 🗽]

So Obamas Gallup numbers are going up and up, and almost everywhere else they're going down. What to make of this?

Like I just said, I have noticed that Gallup sometimes seems to lag behind a little.

That doesn't make any sense at all. "Oh, you're a pollster with Gallup? Let me tell you who I supported three days ago."

[Lief 🗽]

I wonder if anyone would care to explain this oddity within Gallup today...

Registered Voters - 2,774 interviews
Likely Voters (Expanded) - 2,271 interviews
Likely Voters (Traditional) - 2,340 interviews

You know what this makes Sam Spade think...

No, we don't Sam. Please enlighten us.

[Lief 🗽]

God, those numbers are delicious.

[Lief 🗽]

Good. I was worried for a bit that the Rasmussen drop wasn't an outlier.

[Lief 🗽]

Guys, this exact same "tightening" happened in 2006. For the last week, the Republicans gained a little bit in the generic congressional ballot as well as in the competitive Senate races, and yet they still lost 30 house seats and 6 senate seats. As long as Obama stays above 50 and McCain stays stuck in the mid-40s, we're good.

Plus, the state polls still indicate a pretty solid Obama lead.

[Lief 🗽]

Oh my. That just made my day.

[Lief 🗽]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This election is Safe Obama.

[Lief 🗽]

This should be showing some of the impact of the infomercial. I wish Rasmussen was showing the same thing but whatever... this is awesome.

Gallup sez Wednesday and Thursday night's interviews were pretty much the same, though both obviously very good for Obama.

[Lief 🗽]

owned

[Lief 🗽]

JJ apparently believes that candidates who are ahead generally stop campaigning in the final week.