PA PrimD: Rasmussen: Clinton With Strong Lead in Pennsylvania

[Lief 🗽]

I've stopped trusting polls that aren't SUSA.

[Lief 🗽]

Rasmussen tends to overrate Obama, therefore Clinton is actually ahead by about 20% right now.

Most pollsters tend to overrate Obama.

Uh, no. Most pollsters tend to UNDERRATE him. The only states he overpolled in were California and New Hampshire. Conversely look at Wisconsin, Virginia, Maryland, Missouri...

He also overpolled in RI, OH and VT.

False, false, and false.

[Lief 🗽]

Rasmussen tends to overrate Obama, therefore Clinton is actually ahead by about 20% right now.

Most pollsters tend to overrate Obama.

Uh, no. Most pollsters tend to UNDERRATE him. The only states he overpolled in were California and New Hampshire. Conversely look at Wisconsin, Virginia, Maryland, Missouri...

He also overpolled in RI, OH and VT.

False, false, and false.

LOL

Polls didn't show RI, OH and VT much closer/a big win for Obama?

Ok!

The one real poll from Rhode Island showed Clinton up 15, over a week before the primary. She ended up winning by 18 points.

Ohio polls were pretty much right on, in some cases even more pro-Clinton that the state eventually was, with the one outlier being Zogby.

The one good poll in Vermont (Rasmussen) gave Obama a 24 point lead, 10 days before the primary. Obama ended up winning by 22 points.

What were you saying again?

[Lief 🗽]

On average, Obama does better than polls predict, especially if you remove horrible outlier polls (Uni polls, Zogby, etc.)