Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
Posts: 44,999
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« on: November 11, 2012, 02:11:54 PM » |
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I have some problems with Silver's methodology here. First, they're not actually done counting all the votes. There are still a few million votes nationally to count, so the margin will change there. The margin is also likely to change by around a point in at least a few states (Arizona, Ohio). Not sure why he couldn't have waited another week or so. Second, I'm not sure how you can compare polls three weeks before the election to the actual election result for accuracy. Part of the reason why I suspect every poll (almost) has a Republican "house effect" here is because Mitt Romney was doing a lot better in the polls three weeks before the election than he was a day before the election. You have no way of knowing if a poll weeks before an election is accurate. There's nothing to test it against. It makes more sense to just use the last poll nearest to the election.
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