Follow the money. Romney and the RNC have done no advertising in Pennsylvania and Republican Super Pacs very little. If this is really a 3 point race they would be spending heavily.
National Journal advertising figures are wrong. RNC has been advertising HEAVILY in PA for the last month. I have seen 3 RNC anti-Obama ads over the 3-4 hours I have watched the Olympics. Also, Crossroads went absolutely nuts here in June. Americans for Prosperity and the anti heath care group went on a decent amount a few weeks ago. And Restore our Future is starting here Monday with ads. So, if you want to go by the money, PA is close.
I've seen those ads during the olympics too, and I'm in Texas. They're obviously national buys.