National Tracking Poll Thread (user search)
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Author Topic: National Tracking Poll Thread  (Read 312848 times)
Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #75 on: October 23, 2012, 08:43:18 PM »
Nope, read better plz.

Quote from: krazen1211 on October 23, 2012, 07:02:47 AM
PPP

Romney 49 (+1)
Obama 47 (-1)


Onward!
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #76 on: October 24, 2012, 01:50:04 PM »
THE DEBATE BOUNCE HAS ARRIVED
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #77 on: October 24, 2012, 10:16:06 PM »
PPP
Obama 49 (+1)
Romney 48 (nc)

The debate bounce continues. He was down 49-47 on Monday.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #78 on: October 25, 2012, 12:09:19 PM »
Gallup is unchanged from yesterday, 50-47.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #79 on: October 25, 2012, 07:25:57 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on October 25, 2012, 07:08:57 PM
Today looks like a big win for no-mentum.

By the way, is it me or are we getting way fewer non-tracking national polls this year than we usually get?

Not just you. It's pretty annoying too, since those are usually the good ones.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #80 on: October 26, 2012, 12:22:34 PM »
Obama surged in RAND today, to his highest level ever.

Obama: 50.56%
Romney: 44.64%

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #81 on: October 26, 2012, 12:26:57 PM »
Quote from: dirks on October 26, 2012, 12:23:34 PM

they were right on the money in 1984, 1996 and 2004...and were very accurate with Obama's final number in 2008. They also got Bush Sr. final number correct in 1988

If anything Gallup historically predicts the GOP candidate to get a little less than he actually does

Not really. In 2010 they said the GOP would win the congressional ballot by fifteen points; they actually won it by 7.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #82 on: October 26, 2012, 01:00:16 PM »
IBD/TIPP essentially unchanged from yesterday, though Obama's lead increases from 2% to 2.3%.

Obama: 46.9%
Romney: 44.6%
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #83 on: October 26, 2012, 04:49:59 PM »
Real Clear Politics, Pollster.com, Talking Points Memo, Politicalwire.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #84 on: October 26, 2012, 10:17:08 PM »
Quote
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jesus
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #85 on: October 27, 2012, 11:22:58 AM »
Excellent. Support for Obama is clearly growing.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #86 on: October 27, 2012, 01:57:59 PM »
The strange thing about these trackers is that they all have wildly different numbers but seem to be staying pretty constant, floating a point or two daily around a certain point. Some times Romney has a good day or Obama has a good day, but overall there doesn't seem to be much change.

Rasmussen: Romney +3
Gallup: Romney +5
Reuters/Ipsos: Obama +1
IBD/TIPP: Obama +2
RAND: Obama +3
PPP: Tie
ABC/WaPo: Romney +1

So all seven of these guys think that the race is fairly stable. They just disagree about where it's stable.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #87 on: October 27, 2012, 02:12:36 PM »
Quote from: Umengus on October 27, 2012, 02:04:30 PM
Quote from: Lief on October 27, 2012, 01:57:59 PM
The strange thing about these trackers is that they all have wildly different numbers but seem to be staying pretty constant, floating a point or two daily around a certain point. Some times Romney has a good day or Obama has a good day, but overall there doesn't seem to be much change.

Rasmussen: Romney +3
Gallup: Romney +5
Reuters/Ipsos: Obama +1
IBD/TIPP: Obama +2
RAND: Obama +3
PPP: Tie
ABC/WaPo: Romney +1

So all seven of these guys think that the race is fairly stable. They just disagree about where it's stable.

the answer is in the party id of their sample...

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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #88 on: October 27, 2012, 02:15:47 PM »
Quote from: King on October 27, 2012, 02:14:50 PM
Quote from: Lief on October 27, 2012, 02:12:36 PM
Quote from: Umengus on October 27, 2012, 02:04:30 PM
Quote from: Lief on October 27, 2012, 01:57:59 PM
The strange thing about these trackers is that they all have wildly different numbers but seem to be staying pretty constant, floating a point or two daily around a certain point. Some times Romney has a good day or Obama has a good day, but overall there doesn't seem to be much change.

Rasmussen: Romney +3
Gallup: Romney +5
Reuters/Ipsos: Obama +1
IBD/TIPP: Obama +2
RAND: Obama +3
PPP: Tie
ABC/WaPo: Romney +1

So all seven of these guys think that the race is fairly stable. They just disagree about where it's stable.

the answer is in the party id of their sample...



A vote for Obama has become a vote to debunk thousands of misconceptions about the nature of the universe.

If Obama loses, the Party IDers win.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #89 on: October 27, 2012, 04:07:22 PM »
No WaPo update today??? Sad
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #90 on: October 27, 2012, 09:25:18 PM »
They didn't publish it today for whatever reason. Probably because it's a Saturday.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #91 on: October 27, 2012, 10:02:05 PM »
Well that's a strange schedule, but okay.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #92 on: October 28, 2012, 12:05:06 PM »
Gallup:

RV
Obama 48 (nc)
Romney 47 (-1)

LV
Romney 50 (-1)
Obama 46 (nc)

Weird that Gallup's registered numbers seem more in line with other polls than their likely voter numbers.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #93 on: October 28, 2012, 12:29:17 PM »
Yeah, it was 47-45 yesterday, so

Obama 49 (+2)
Romney 46 (+1)
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #94 on: October 28, 2012, 10:50:57 PM »
PPP is unchanged, Romney 49-48.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #95 on: October 28, 2012, 11:10:28 PM »
The state polls are consistent with an Obama lead nationally of 2% or so. I don't know why the national polls disagree, but I'm gonna put my trust in state polls before national ones.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #96 on: October 28, 2012, 11:39:44 PM »
WaPo is also holding steady at 49-48, though this is through Saturday (instead of through Sunday for PPP).
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #97 on: October 29, 2012, 12:09:24 AM »
BREAKING: IDB/TIPP POLLING SUSPENDED INDEFINITELY DUE TO HURRICANE SANDY
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #98 on: October 29, 2012, 01:34:00 PM »
BREAKING: GALLUP DAILY TRACKING SUSPENDED DUE TO HURRICANE SANDY

It looks like it's up to Rasmussen and RAND to ride us through this storm.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #99 on: October 29, 2012, 04:04:33 PM »
ABC/WaPo

Romney 49% (nc)
Obama 49% (+1)

The Obama surge continues.
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