Canada 2011 Official Thread

[Lief 🗽]

I don't see why all talk must always be that this will be an epic Liberal rout, that the Liberals are doomed and so forth. Sure, Ignatieff is a poor leader and the odds aren't good. But Ignatieff is probably a marginally better leader than Dion - who also had sh**tpoor leadership numbers and when expectations are so low anything marginally positive can boost you up. Remember 1988.

At any rate, a Tory majority would be awful for this country; but if the people are retarded enough to go for it, then maybe the idiots should suffer the consequences and live with it afterwards. But for those who aren't idiots, it will be awful.

To be fair to Canada, even if the Tories do win a majority, it'll be with something like 55 to 60% of the country voting against them.

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CROP poll... or CRAP poll?

I could totally write headlines professionally. 

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This could still very easily go the way of the LibDems in 2010 though.

Also Canadian polls are released at odd hours.

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Forum Research Poll also shows the NDP surging, ahead of the Liberals nationally:

Conservative: 36%
NDP: 25%
Liberal: 23%
BQ: 6%
Greens: 6%

And ahead of the Bloc in Quebec (though presumably the MoE is high):

NDP: 34%
BQ: 25%
Liberals: 18%
Conservatives: 16%
Greens: 4%

http://www.thehilltimes.ca/dailyupdate/view/jack_finds_his_groove_ndp_in_reach_of_official_opposition_says_new_forum_research_poll_04-21-2011

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Apparently the Tories are scared of the NDP now: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_PYTd52pT28&feature=youtu.be

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This is very interesting: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/features/votecompass/map/

For as much BS that Canada Votes thing was, I think these maps are quite accurate. Interesting to see how Libertarian parts of Quebec are.

It looks like Quebec supports higher taxes on the rich the most but also privatizing health insurance the most??? Weird.

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Sometimes pictures really are worth a thousand words.

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Post details people

I'm all for believing that the NDP is doing very well, especially in Quebec, but some of these numbers are starting to look downright ridiculous.

Oh, absolutely. But in Canadian elections the ridiculous does sometimes happen, so there's a better than... say... 10% (?) chance of it being 'real'. Of course the tradition is also for the NDP to loose support in the last week.

Though that's (presumably) because of strategic voting shifts, which wouldn't apply if the NDP really is (or, at least, the polls say it is) in second place, no?

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It looks like the numbers originated from Robert Fife's twitter (http://twitter.com/#!/RobertFife); he is apparently a reporter or something for CTV, so it seems legit, I guess.

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The Angus Reid poll has Harper's approval at 36%-50%... in a normal political system he'd be headed to a landslide loss.

Clear majorities would also be dissatisfied with either a Tory minority or majority government. Though a Lib-NDP coalition is also only slightly more popular and a Lib-NDP-Bloc coalition is opposed by 60% of the country.

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NDP with a big lead in Hull-Aylmer (swing from 2008):

NDP : 42% (+22)
Lib : 29% (-8)
Bloc : 13% (-9)
CPC : 11% (-4)
Green : 2% (-3)

link

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Probably an idiotic question, but why are the NDP surging? And what's all this about the Bloc being left with a single-digit seat count...?

Presumably the same reason third parties are doing well around the world: people are tired of the endless back and forths between two corrupt, nearly identical, neoliberal parties.

Hmm... UK 1983, anyone?

The NDP have been around for decades.

Their support is also much more concentrated in specific ridings, rather than spread evenly-ish across the country.

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Bob Rae is a dirty traitor like Ujjal Dosanjh, and an incompetent at that. It would please me greatly to see him made leader.

They both suck a lot. Incompetent leaders who oversaw crushing landslide defeats for their provincial NDP parties and bolted to the Liberals afterward. I don't want to jinx things, but just knowing that there's a distinct possibility that Rae will be the leader of a rump Liberal caucus supporting an NDP minority is kind of awesome.

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Does it really matter if there are a couple incompetents/crazies in the NDP caucus? If it ends up being 80 or 90 MPs, it's not like they're going to be in positions of power. And in Westminster systems everyone just does what the party leader tells them to do anyway.

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Some Quebec riding polls, I don't if people have seen them yet.



Unfortunately four of them are from before the NDP surge really began.

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Hmm... didn't realize these were old riding polls (except for Hull). Again, I'd like to see some 514/450 polls!

Yeah, all but the Hull poll are from when the NDP was still below 20% in Quebec. Which is probably good news for the NDP in the two Tory seats.

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All Chow admitted was that Layton was found in a massage parlour by the police, and released without charges. Nothing about Layton being naked, or the Chinese masseuse, or wet Kleenex thrown into the trash.

It's yellow journalism overall. The news is advertised as "Layton found in bawdy house" when nobody has proof that it was a brothel. I have doubts that it is even legal for a policeman to reveal these confidential matters. Until a journalist can contact the TPS, this ranges on the absurd.

I don't think there's any dispute the massage parlor was allegedly being used as a brothel at time - even Chow said her husband was surprised to hear the allegations.  And I doubt Sun News would characterize it as a bawdy house unless there were some arrests made at that location - Canadian libel laws are far too tilted in favor of those allegedly defamed for even the press and Sun could easily get sued over it.

I also doubt there's any dispute that the masseuse was Chinese.  Sun News has zero reason to lie about that - nor is it particularly relevant in the grand scheme of things.  

Much of the rest of Sun News' report apparently comes directly from the notes of the police officer who spoke with Layton at the time.  Why would he have lied about things in those notes, exactly?   Now, Layton might have a different recollection or no recollection about the specifics of the situation at all, but I don't think Sun News is just making stuff up.

At the end of the day, how the NDP handles this will tell us a lot about whether they are fit to govern.  So far, they seem to be on top of things and fighting back properly.

The police officer admitted that the Toronto police were pissed off at Layton at the time for his policies on the City Council. I'm not saying he's lying, but even he admitted bias. 

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I wonder if the provincial NDP in Ontario has seen any uptick in support along with the national party.

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Had a dream last night that the Tories won a 200+ seat majority and the NDP came in third. Sorry guys.

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EKOS

Conservatives: 34.6%
NDP: 31.4%
Liberals: 20.4%
BQ: 5.2%
Green: 6.3%

http://ipolitics.ca/2011/05/01/conservative-ndp-gap-narrows-to-three-points-in-dwindling-hours-of-campaign/

NDP is only down 34.8-32.4 among those "absolutely certain" to vote. Interesting.

Tories are at 40% in Ontario though, which is bad.

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Do Canadian MPs really work that little that they can be full time students as well? Presumably the Canadian House of Commons is a little busier than an American state legislature.

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With the Welsh elections tomorrow, tis time to change signatures. But I do like that picture of Lewis; not only an admirable man, but also a style icon:

That's what David Lewis looked like in the 70s? Wikipedia should probably change the picture of him on their Canadian election pages: