Canadian federal polling division files

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what kind of Arabs are in St Leonard? Algerians and Lebanese?

Yeah, mostly. There's also a large number of Haitians and a growing Hispanic community, mainly South American.

Hmm, I can see the Bloc trying to target these communities. They have already had a Haitian MP.

Good luck at that. Ethnic minorities don't want independence.

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Once said site is complete, it should merge with Pundits' Guide.

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Western Arctic would be nice.

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Why so?

Full of crazy people. Only the inner city is remotely sane.

Though I wouldn't object to doing Newfoundland!

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As a novice in knowledge of Canadian Politics can someone explain why Ottawa (or at least its suburbs) and Quebec City have such a strong conservative vote.

Western Ottawa is Anglophone, wealthy suburbia. Orleans is 32% French, but most Francophones in Orleans vote Liberal. They've been historically Conservative, but they massively switched to the Liberals in 1988 and remained so until the end of the Chretien era.

I'd like to see maps of Nepean-Carleton and Carleton – Mississippi Mills, both of which are part of the City of Ottawa but include large swaths of rural land. Of course, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell.

Usually Civil Servants and government workers vote for parties that support enlarging the role of government/ public sector unions - at least from my experience (though I'm guessing Civil Servants are mostly concentrated in the City Centres and make up large parts of the Liberal/Bloc Vote). Though obviously I don't really know much of the details exactly that are specific to Ottawa/QC.

I'm pretty sure the federal civil servants did not vote Conservative in 2008, given how Harper pretty much hates them all. I think the map of Hull-Aylmer pretty much serves as proof.

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I must disagree a little with those who described its voting behavior. As a french rural riding, it was very Liberal (see returns for Russell riding). Indeed, the village of Orleans was very heavily Liberals for years (in 1968, admittedly a Liberal landslide, it voted 91% Liberal!).

Increasing suburbanization has changed its character into a more typcially suburban riding. It is above average in income and education and is overwhelmingly home-owners, while also having more francoiphone voters still than any other Ottawa riding save Ottawa-Vanier.

The core francophone communities are the old Orleans village polls (about 4-5 of them) plus some of the newer more easterly subdivisions (south of Innes near Trim road). The Conservative MP Galipeau wins good margins in the middle class anglophone polls but has increased his support in the francophone polls as well. They trend Liberal still but not as much as in the past.

I'm sorry, but you must have misunderstood me. I only described it's current voting patterns. Indeed, current day Orleans is largely English suburbia, though in the past it certainly was Catholic-French heartland similar to Prescott-Russell today.

The maps for Glengarry-Prescott-Russell will be rather interesting, though rather blue for 2008 given the margin of Lemieux's victory. The fact that Glengarry-Prescott-Russell is held by a Conservative is rather telling of the rout of the Liberals in almost all of rural Ontario.

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We haven't had much Mississauga coverage yet? Wouldn't we all love to see that?

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We haven't had much Mississauga coverage yet? Wouldn't we all love to see that?

Well, I got it to work!

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I'm surprised Kenora hasn't been mentioned before. It's an interesting map and the results in 2008 give all three parties a run for this seat.

Voting patterns in the far north are very entertaining. Tribal differences? For reference, the Tories polled like 1% in most of the far northern reaches

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The Greenies polled 16% in Brandon-Souris, a rural Manitoba riding.

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The Green wins were all around Brandon University.

And the NDP wins outside Brandon were, IIRC, all Indian reserves. There's a sizeable Native pop in the riding.

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Made primarily because there's a by-election scheduled for the riding soon enough. The Bloc MP resigned to run and lose in the Rivière-du-Loup provincial by-election.



Guess where the Tory candidate was from...

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Wasn't the Liberal candidate in Brandon-Souris the 9/11 conspiracy woman? Would explain why the Liberals collapsed there.

Nope, it was in Kildonan—St. Paul.

The Liberal collapse in Brandon-Souris is nothing spectacular, it was a nationwide trend or about that.

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oh, damn. What's with the Green support then?

There's the University, but 16% is rather high. It can't all come from Brandon.

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Two biggies in Toronto

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York Centre... not as interesting as I'd have thought...



Why isn't it interesting? I guess Jews live in apartments, mostly.

Results of 400-600 polls:

Conservative 49.08%
Liberal 34.55%
NDP 10.81%
Green 5.57%

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Two interesting maps...



Thornhill is, afaik, the only plurality Jewish riding in Canada. It was also one of those which actually swung to Tory's PCs in the 2007 Ontarian election (Jews liked Tory's school issue). Following the national trend of a strong Jewish swing from Lib to Con, the Conservatives won by 10% or so.



Welland was a close 3-way race in 2008 (and 2006) which was won, to my surprise, by the NDP.

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Random new stuff:

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Here's Brant



I think all of the Liberal polls in the larger rural areas are Native reserves. The main town is the small industrial centre of Brantford. The other towns are Paris and Burford.

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A map of the three London ridings would be fun.

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And also Greater Quebec, so far we only had the sane riding in Quebec (inner city).

And Laval too would be fun. And the rest of Calgary and Edmonton, though depressing.

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You need 50 posts to post maps in the Gallery. In the meantime, upload them to Photobucket or imageshack.

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Do you have Quebec by MRC or county equivalent?

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I also believe Scarborough is the most ethnically diverse of them, I think over 60% are visible minorities so that might explain why the Liberals do so well there. 

Not 'might'. I think that it explains it fair and square. Visible minorities are Liberal strongholds, though less so now than in the past.

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Madawaska County, Restigouche County, Kent County, Westmoreland County (all have a large Francophone community, although ironically the Tories won Madawaska County in 2006.  I am guessing since it is so heavily French, their arts cuts that hurt them in Quebec probably had a spillover effect.  This county seems to move more in line with Quebec than New Brunswick)

The Liberal seem to have been utterly destroyed everywhere in French Canada. In Quebec they dropped to single-digits in most places outside the West Island/Hull, they lost places like Ottawa-Orleans (and Bélanger had his closest run yet in Vanier) or Glengarry-Prescott-Russell which they held since God knows when, and they came this close to losing Madawaska-Restigouche. Some votes came back in Quebec and New Brunswick in 2008, not as much in Ontario. Probably based on Harper and Verner's oh so intelligent idea of arts cuts. Since I don't think it was a love for Rat-face "not a leader" Dion.