Basque and Galician Regional Elections, 1 March 2009

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The latest poll is from February 23 by Público.

EAJ-PNV 34.1% winning 26-28 seats (+4/+6)
PSE-EE 29.1% winning 23-25 seats (+5/+7)
PP 10.9% winning 9-11 seats (-6/-4)
Aralar 8.4% winning 6 seats (+5)
EB-B 6% winning 4 seats (+1)
EA 5% winning 3-4 seats (-4/-3)
UPyD 3.1% winning 1-3 seats (+1/+3)

On most calculations, a EAJ-EA-Aralar-EBB government would have an absolute majority (38 seats out of 75).

Taking all seat projections, the forks are EAJ 26-30, PSE 22-28, PP 9-15, EB-B 3-5, EA 0-4, Aralar 1-6, UPyD 0-3.

Galicia; Current polling from February 22 from El Mundo

PP 44.5% winning 36-38 seats (-1/+1)
PSdeG-PSOE 33.1% winning 25-26 seats (±0, +1)
BNG 18.3% winning 12-13 seats (-1/±0)

The forks taking into account all projections say PP 33-38, PSOE 22-27, BNG 11-16. Obviously, if the PP wins 38 seats tomorrow, it’s all over and the PP wins. Gah. If not, then the current PSdeG-BNG coalition could continue.

Ikusi arte bihar!

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Actually, maybe not. ETA formed an outfit called D3M before the elections but was quickly banned. However, it seems that D3M will stay on the ballot and all votes for them will be counted as 'invalid'. So, Batasuna has called on its supporters to vote invalid/blank.

What the hell is UPyD?

Centrists, social liberals and seculars (good part) but strongly anti-nationalist and opposed to the autonomies status (bad part). Maybe even moreso than the PP. Got a seat in Madrid last year (federal, o/c).

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Actually, maybe not. ETA formed an outfit called D3M before the elections but was quickly banned. However, it seems that D3M will stay on the ballot and all votes for them will be counted as 'invalid'. So, Batasuna has called on its supporters to vote invalid/blank.

What the hell is UPyD?

Centrists, social liberals and seculars (good part) but strongly anti-nationalist and opposed to the autonomies status (bad part). Maybe even moreso than the PP. Got a seat in Madrid last year (federal, o/c).

Hmm, are they related to the Ciutadans from Catalonia?

Not related, though there were some merger talks in 2008.

They're awfully similar though.

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I already posted that in the first post of the thread. Do you work for the Department of Redundancy Department?

No, the department for making things as clear as possible (that's all)

Doesn't change the fact that the exact same results were already posted in the first post on this thread.

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Map of the 2005 results in Galicia

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Hopefully the PP is kept under 38 seats in Galicia.

Good stuff in Euskadi. Especially nice to see the PP collapse yet again there. Good.

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First returns from Galicia sez PSdeG 42, PP 36, BNG 16, UPyD 1.

If only these could be the real results.

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Full exit poll data from Euskadi gives Aralar 2-4, EA 1-3, EBB 0-3, UPyD 0-1.

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With around 20% reporting in Galicia, the PP would have 39 seats (+2), PSdeG 24 (-1), and BNG 12 (-1). The PV is PP 47, PSOE 30, BNG 16.

Nothing as of yet from Euskadi.

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But when the Basques come in, it's massive. 50.5% reporting

EAJ 37.95 / 29
PSE-EE 31.04 / 26
PP 13.83 / 11
Aralar 6.66 / 5
EB-B 3.57 / 2
EA 3.75 / 1

PSE-EE leads in Alava province, the "least Basque" one.

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Galicia is depressing. PP is still at 39 seats.

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UPyD could have won a seat in Euskadi. Seat count now EAJ 29, PSE 26, PP 12, Aralar 5, EA 1, EBB 1, UPyD 1. Hopefully those fake centrists don't hold it.

PP has probably won in Galicia. Tragic.

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EB-B up to 2 seats, PSE down to 25.

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Urgh, no nationalist majority, and the PSOE bastards have gained.

Though the outgoing coalition+Aralar has a majority (52%) in the popular vote.

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I can't believe the idiots who are suggesting that the PSOE will lead a non-nationalist coalition government, as if they'd ever make a coalition with the PP.

Is there any precedent of a PSOE-PP coalition anywhere in Spain?

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Invalid votes in Euskadi (aka ETA) is 8.84%

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Truly proportional and fair legislature:

Araba (11 seats)

EAJ-PNV 4
PSE-EE 4
PP 3

Gipuzkoa (24 seats)

EAJ-PNV 10
PSE-EE 8
PP 2
Aralar 2
EA 1
EB-B 1

Araba (40 seats)

EAJ-PNV 19
PSE-EE 13
PP 6
Aralar 1
EB-B 1

Which gives us a new legislature (with change on actual allocation)

EAJ-PNV 33 (+3)
PSE-EE 25 (+1)
PP 11 (-2)
Aralar 3 (-1)
EA 1 (-1)
EB-B 2 (+1)
UPyD 0 (-1)

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Well, fourth post in a row, but whatever. I found this Spanish poll.

Socialist Worker’s Party (PSOE) 41.0% (2008: 43.9%)
Popular Party (PP) 38.5% (39.9%)
United Left (IU) / Initiative for Catalonia-Greens (IC-V) 4.8% (3.8%)
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 4.4% (1.2%)
Convergence and Union (CiU) 2.8% (3%)
Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) 1.1% (1.2%)
Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) 1.0% (1.2%)

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There isn't a nationalist majority partly because the seats are allocated unproportionally so that a small province like Araba which has 14% of the population holds a third of the seats.