Canada 2008: Official Thread

[Hash]

I was waiting for the NDP to drop down to 19 again.

Today's tracking polls are all indicating a minor drop for the NDP from 20ish to 18-19. Still within the MoE IIRC.

[Hash]

I'm watching Palin-Biden myself. I'll see the debate tomorrow on the interwebs.

[Hash]

I heard from some that Dion actually defied expectations and got points across. I personally wouldn't put him in last.

Layton and May were clearly on top, from what I've heard.

[Hash]

I heard from some that Dion actually defied expectations and got points across. I personally wouldn't put him in last.

Mind you, expections for Dion were probably so low that..

True that.

[Hash]

http://www.votejoel.ca/

lololol

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Hash]

Nanos had the best track record in 2006 though, predicting spot on a Con +6 victory. We'll see.

Personally, most of my doubts are on Harris-Decima lately. Both nationally and in Quebec.

[Hash]

Snapshot of my poll tracking.

[Hash]

Nanos nugget: Dion has had an overnight surge on their leadership index.

From 31 yesterday, he's up to 71. Harper is at 79 (95 yesterday), Layton at 48 (60 yesterday), May at 15 (18), Duceppe at 11 (14).

Dion surges most on Competence, from 9 to 26. Improves from 11 to 24 in Vision for Canada, and from 11 to 21 in Trust.

But no surge on Best PM.

[Hash]

Nanos had the best track record in 2006 though, predicting spot on a Con +6 victory. We'll see.

Personally, most of my doubts are on Harris-Decima lately. Both nationally and in Quebec.

For a while, Nanos was overstating the Liberals and understating the Greens compared to everyone else, which I figured was the result of a weight against Green switchers. But now they've got the Greens close to where everyone else has them, yet still have the Liberals much higher than the other two. I'm not sure where the Liberal numbers are coming from.

Harris-Decima also has oddities. In the past week or so, they have the Tories much stronger in Quebec than the other pollsters have (27% today, over 20% by both EKOS and Nanos). Harris-Decima is also seeing the Greenies at 16-17 in Ontario, tied with NDP. Overall, the Liberals are much weaker with Harris.

[Hash]

Ipsos-Reid sez

Con 37
Lib 23
NDP 19
Bloc 11
Greenies 10

Quebec results are disastrous for the Tories, but worth to be taken with a grain of salt (small sample)
Bloc 40
Lib 24
Con 18
NDP 11
Greenies 6

Though the Ontario results destroy their credibility.

Con 40
Lib 26
NDP 21
Greenies 13

Do note that in 2006, they had C +11 in their last poll, and the final result was C +6.

[Hash]

Changing my prediction from Lean NDP to Safe NDP.

[Hash]

Interesting. There was one in the paper from a week ago that showed a landslide for John Baird in Ottawa West-Nepean.

I saw that in the sh**tizen a few days ago. I didn't read it, since I don't care.

Louis-Hébert:
Luc Harvey (CPC): 30
Pascal-Pierre Paillé (BQ): 28
Jean Beaupré (LPC): 13
Denis Blanchette (NDP): 9
Michelle Fontaine (GPC): 6
Stefan Jetchick (CHP): 1

Interesting.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not surprising. There was never a chance that the Tories would win this riding.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

As I predicted. Liberals aren't picking this one up.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Oh dear.

I hope Mustaque Sarker gets beaten into fifth by the Greenie. Sarker is such a joke.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Good riddance to Fortier.

Why on earth didn't they poll Ahuntsic? Or Honoré-Mercier for that matter.

A Beauce poll would've been amusing too.

[Hash]

What % did Harris get in the 1987 by-election, out of curiosity?

[Hash]

The PC candidate in '87 was Thomas Hickey. Lol.

[Hash]

Harris-Decima seems really fishy these days. Especially for the Greenies and Ontario.

[Hash]

Since American politics has been boring me lately I have finally decided to follow the Canadian elections closer. Any good sites explaining the close races and polls?

Election Prediction is good. There's a lot of spin and kooks in the comments, but it's fine overall.

DemoSpace is good, but his predictions are deceiving this time 'round.

CBC, of course.

But, I'm very biased towards Pundits' Guide. It's excellent. It has census data, cool statistics, financial stuff, and allows you to sort ridings by stuff.

Or try Wikipedia. They have all the opinion polls on one page and a list of candidates.

And, as a general rule, avoid Elections Canada. Their site makes me barf.

Or you can PM me. I'd be happy to explain a few thingees.

[Hash]

I should use pundit's guide more often, it's run by an NDPer.

You're such an extreme hack.

[Hash]

A 2 point bump for the NDP is not "statistical noise".

A one day 2-point bump for any party in one poll may be statistical noise.  Or not.

A 2-point movement is within the margin of error.  You have to wait a few days to decide whether it is statistical noise or a trend.   And in any event, the full bump (if any) from the debates should be factored into the Monday or Tuesday polling, not Saturday's.  Compare Tuesday's Harris/Decima poll to Friday's to determine whether the parties received any bump or decline as a result of the English debates.

Why Harris-Decima and not Nanos or EKOS? Harris-Decima is certainly not the best firm there is out there.

[Hash]

Also, did Nanos Research really suggest in polls taken on October 2, that Dion's Liberals are at 30 percent in the polls? LOL.

Don't lol at Nanos. They were spot on in 2006.

[Hash]

Also, did Nanos Research really suggest in polls taken on October 2, that Dion's Liberals are at 30 percent in the polls? LOL.

Don't lol at Nanos. They were spot on in 2006.

They may have just been lucky. I haven't seen anything indicating that they are superior pollsters.

But they're not Angus-Reid or that other crap pollster I forgot. They deserve atleast a bit of respect, since they're not entirely off like Angus-Crap.

[Hash]

Also, did Nanos Research really suggest in polls taken on October 2, that Dion's Liberals are at 30 percent in the polls? LOL.

Don't lol at Nanos. They were spot on in 2006.

They may have just been lucky. I haven't seen anything indicating that they are superior pollsters.

But they're not Angus-Reid or that other crap pollster I forgot. They deserve atleast a bit of respect, since they're not entirely off like Angus-Crap.

Well, yeah, Angus Reid just gets filtered out of my mind. But I don't have any reason to believe that Nanos is empirically better than Ipsos-Reid, Harris-Decima, Strategic Vision or EKOS (although EKOS has had some wacky regional internals at times).

I certainly hope Nanos' Green numbers turn to out to be inaccurate.

[Hash]

So what do y'all think are the real numbers?

My guess:

CPC: 36
LPC: 28
NDP: 19
BQ: 10
GPC: 7

I predict that the Greenies will poll better than 7%. Not 10%, but more like 8-9%.

[Hash]

DemoSpace: http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/seat-projections.pdf

Seems to have stopped taking LSD. He isn't predicting a Tory gain in Ottawa South anymore, for starters.

But some are still crazy.

[Hash]

All 3 trackers have the Tory lead down to single digit. In Ontario, EKOS has a tie, Nanos has Lib +9 and Harris has L +8.

In Quebec, Nanos sez Bloc @ 46%. Harris is weird on Quebec- they're seeing the Grits much higher (28ish range) and a single-digit Bloc lead.

[Hash]

The Globe and Mail was mentioning these battleground thingees again, so I decided to look at them.

http://www.ctv.ca/mini/election2008/polltracker.html