France General Discussion

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Les Verts: the most popular party in France!

I'm quite surprised at their popularity level, it must be new, since the last time I checked every party was in the negatives.

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A little cartoon...

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No real surprises anywhere.

It seems like the quiet style of Fillon seems more popular than the bling-bling hyper-style of the dwarf.

Interesting data, btw (I recommend using the TNS-Sofres website itself, though, their interactive graphs are much better).

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Guillaume Peltier, formerly the second-in-command in the MPF (de Villiers' joke party) a rising star within the party (he also 'replaced' Donnedieu de Vabres as leader of the right in Tours in March, with Donnedieu de Vabres retiring), and surely the person who would be given the top position on the MPF list in the Massif Central-Centre EU constituency; has joined the UMP. He was close to Hortefeux, Minister of Immigration, and he probably realized that a fruitful future political careers is better achieved within a major party than a local joke party.

This is bad news for de Villiers. Peltier could've have potentially gotten the MPF out of a total-joke status. But now the party is condemned to sink into joke status even more. Under Hortefeux's wing, he can potentially be a UMP rising star, and a serious contender for deputy, Mayor, maybe MEP in Tours. (Jean Royer's second coming )

Fun fact: This is his fourth party. He was in the FN, MNR, MPF, and now UMP. He'll probably be centrist next and a Communist in ten years 

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Congress has adopted the institutional reform law very narrowly, by one vote of majority in fact. The final vote was 539 for vs. 357 against.

Breakdown:

Assembly

UMP 310 in favour, 6 against (Goulard [Mayor of Vannes who hates Sarkozy and loves Bayrou], other irrelevancies), 1 abstaining
Socialist, PRG, MRC 194 against, 6 in favour (a few overseas leftie MPs, most PRG MPs, Jack Lang [the only PS vote in favour])
GDR (Commies + Greenies) 24 against, none in favour
NC 23 in favour (including Ille-et-Vilaine MP Thierry Benoit , who quit the MoDem to join the New Centre ), 1 abstaining (Philippe Folliot, former RPF deputy)
NI, MoDem, DLR 6 against (3 MoDem MPs, 2 MPF MPs, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan), 1 in favour (DLR MP from the Nord)

Senate

UMP 158 in favour, 1 against (unknown Senator from Maine-et-Loire)
PS 95 against
UC-UDF 24 in favour, 2 against (MoDems), 4 abstaining
Communist and Republican 23 against
RDSE 11 in favour, 4 against (3 PRGs and a lolz MPF lolz idiot), 2 abstaining
NI 2 against (2 MPF), 2 in favour (2 CNIP-DVD), 1 abstaining (1 DVD), 1 lazy/sleeping/missed the bus (lolz)

I'll write a little analysis of what this reform entails if anyone is interested. Right now I'm celebrating the defeat of Arnaud Montebourg (who was the leader of his clan for this. He likes to yell and complain a lot, so they chose him, since his position included a lot of yelling and whining) who swore that no Socialist would vote against.

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lolz PS lolz. All Socialists are pissed at Jack Lang and the PRG for voting in favour. Ayrault said that Lang auto-excluded himself from the SRC group. Royal, who never misses an opportunity to complain, quoted Mitterrand. In addition, talks will soon be held between Hollande and Baylet, the leader of the PRG. A majority of PRG deputies and Senators voted in favour, including Baylet. Knowing how the Socialists automatically hate anybody who goes against their party line, the PRG might quit the SRC group.

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Left-Radicals, eh?

I'm sure the 12 PRG members elected to nationwide office will be pleased.

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Uhm. Let's see what's new in Bro-C'hall.

Sarkozy seems to be gaining in popularity. Ipsos puts him at 44 and Fillon at 52. Him being less bling-bling, and a bit calmer plays a large role.

Le Pen has decided not to run again in 2012 and open the road to his succession.

Besancenot is gaining in momentum and strength. The LCR membership was boosted quite a bit, probably in view of the creation of his NPA soon. I heard about a poll in France that had Besancenot with around 10% in a presidential poll. He still remains one of the top 10 most popular politicians (far ahead of Sarkozy and Royal) and one of the top 10 best opponents to Sarkozy.

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Why hasn't the LCR been able to capitalize on Besancenot's popularity with at least one MNA?

Firstly, the LCR has absolutely no (absolutely none) ground constituency organization and GOTV effort. The LCR has no party machine on the ground. Also, Besancenot is like Le Pen in that he gets votes from voters that don't vote for the party in a general/EU/local election.

Secondly, even if it did break 15% in one constituency (which is very unlikely) and somehow got into the runoff, a plurality/majority of voters would not vote for a Trot. Just as they wouldn't vote for a fascist. And like with the FN, many of the first round voters wouldn't come out and vote for an LCR candidate that has no chance in the runoff.

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Why hasn't the LCR been able to capitalize on Besancenot's popularity with at least one MNA?

Firstly, the LCR has absolutely no (absolutely none) ground constituency organization and GOTV effort. The LCR has no party machine on the ground. Also, Besancenot is like Le Pen in that he gets votes from voters that don't vote for the party in a general/EU/local election.

Secondly, even if it did break 15% in one constituency (which is very unlikely) and somehow got into the runoff, a plurality/majority of voters would not vote for a Trot. Just as they wouldn't vote for a fascist. And like with the FN, many of the first round voters wouldn't come out and vote for an LCR candidate that has no chance in the runoff.

Are the various DVG and DVD MNAs members of tiny parties or independents?

local party dissidents, a few are local parties that are elected with no PS/UMP opposition.

I'll make a detailed list tomorrow.

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Even a Trot party composed mostly of the LCR would be quite important. The LO and the POI are two irrelevant joke parties, and with Laguiller gone from presidential politics, expect the LO to go away from the national scene.

But the NPA won't be different from the LCR in regards to the legislative scene, since it will continue to have no constituency organization and base.

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Why hasn't the LCR been able to capitalize on Besancenot's popularity with at least one MNA?

Firstly, the LCR has absolutely no (absolutely none) ground constituency organization and GOTV effort. The LCR has no party machine on the ground. Also, Besancenot is like Le Pen in that he gets votes from voters that don't vote for the party in a general/EU/local election.

Secondly, even if it did break 15% in one constituency (which is very unlikely) and somehow got into the runoff, a plurality/majority of voters would not vote for a Trot. Just as they wouldn't vote for a fascist. And like with the FN, many of the first round voters wouldn't come out and vote for an LCR candidate that has no chance in the runoff.

Are the various DVG and DVD MNAs members of tiny parties or independents?

local party dissidents, a few are local parties that are elected with no PS/UMP opposition.

I'll make a detailed list tomorrow.

Please do.

Here we go.

DVG (All elected with PS opposition unless stated otherwise)
Marcel Rogemont, Ille-et-Vilaine 3: PS dissident
Guy Chambefort, Allier 1: PS dissident
Martine Pinville, Charente 4: PS dissident
Jacques Desallangre, Aisne 2: Independent MRC/Commie
Rene Dosiere, Aisne 1: PS dissident
Jean-Pierre Brard, Seine-Saint-Denis 7: Minor party (CAP- bunch of Commies). PS qualified for runoff, but dropped out. Elected unopposed in runoff.
Simon Renucci, Corse-du-Sud 1: Minor party (CSD). No PS opposition
Jeanny Marc-Mathiasin, Guadeloupe 3: Minor party (GUSR)
Chantal Berthelot, Guyane 2: Minor party (PSG). No PS opposition

DVD
Guenhael Huet, Manche 2: UMP dissident. Elected in runoff with official UMP.
Joel Sarlot, Vendee 5: Independent Villierist/MPF. No UMP opposition
Francois-Xavier Villain, Nord 18: Minor party (DLR). No UMP opposition
Lionel Tardy, Haute-Savoie 2: Independent. Defeated NC incumbent.
Eric Straumann, Haut-Rhin 1: UMP dissident. Elected in runoff with official UMP.
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Essonne 8: Minor party (DLR). No UMP opposition

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Isn't DLR part of the UMP?

It used to be an associate party.

Now it's totally separate.

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http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2008/09/15/segolene-royal-revoit-sa-strategie-au-sein-du-ps_1095569_823448.html

After polls showed her performing poorly against Bertrand Delanoë, Ségolène Royal has announced that she may drop out of the race to become First Secretary of the PS (the election is on November 6).

She may drop out if her motion does poorly. She's not dropping out now.

Of course, I'd be sad if she dropped out. She amuses me.

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http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2008/09/15/segolene-royal-revoit-sa-strategie-au-sein-du-ps_1095569_823448.html

After polls showed her performing poorly against Bertrand Delanoë, Ségolène Royal has announced that she may drop out of the race to become First Secretary of the PS (the election is on November 6).

She may drop out if her motion does poorly. She's not dropping out now.

Of course, I'd be sad if she dropped out. She amuses me.

Of course, she can't drop out right now. She needs to have a discussion with the social partners first (that's participative democracy, you know).

Ah, yes. Participative democracy.

She even changed the regional logo of Poitou to include that.



Funnily, the Poitou-Charentes Regional Assembly is certainly not participative democracy as long as she is President.

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The deadline for registering a motion is September 23. Ségolène Royal and her allies have agreed on a motion; if Royal does not lead it, Gérard Collomb will. (Interesting...)

I regret supporting Collomb in March now.

Martine Aubry will be leading her own motion; when asked whether she would put her campaign "in the freezer" like Royal asked, she answered, "At a time when we must, to the contrary, give warmth to our people and to the party, I am not sure that the freezer would be the best solution," and that Royal "is simultaneously a non-candidate and a candidate. It doesn't make any sense anymore, or, rather, it makes too much sense."

For anyone who doesn't know, Aubry hates Royal with a passion.

Bertrand Delanoë is also leading a motion. He is, of course, the frontrunner. He has the support of François Hollande (Royal claims she would have liked for him to stay above the fray), and Jean-Marc Ayrault has endorsed him as well.

Alain Rousset (Aquitaine) and Jean-Yves le Drian (Bretagne), two Royalists in 2007, have also endorsed Delanoë.

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Unemployment in August took a big boost, up 2.2%.

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Oh dear. Not these 'rumours' again.

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The Assembly has adopted the European/French version of the economic stimulus/bailout pack thingee.

Breakdown:

Assembly

UMP 190 in favour, 1 non-voting (Accoyer)
Socialist, PRG, MRC 102 abstaining, 7 in favour (one PS Hamon follower, 4 PRG, 1 Socialist from Wallis-et-Futuna, 1 GUSR), 3 against (Taubira, 2 very left-wing deputies from the Nord)
GDR (Commies + Greenies) 20 against, 4 abstaining (all 4 Greenies)
NC 23 in favour
NI, MoDem, DLR 4 in favour (2 MoDem, 2 MPF)

353 voting, 247 valid votes, majority of 124. 224 in favour, 23 against.

The Senate will vote tomorrow.

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The new major thing for today is the scandal caused by a bunch of "French" citizens supporting the Tunisian soccer team in yesterday's France-Tunisia game and them booing La Marseillaise.

All parties are very pissed. Mark this day. The PS agreeing with the UMP.

The government says they're going to take measures.

La France, tu l'aime ou tu la quitte, as the Viscount would say.

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I don't know if the PCF actually took a stance on this.

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Greenies of all stripes held a rally today before the EU elections next June. It included Daniel Cohn-Bendit, who decided to choose France over Germany; Jose Bove; Antoine Waechter, the centrist-leaning greenie and leader of the MEI; Cecile Duflot, the Greenies leader; and a few others including a few close to Nicolas Hulot.

They apparently want a "Europe-Ecologie" list for the next European elections over a quadrillion jokes all claiming to be Greenies.

Also, the death of Sister Emmanuelle, a great humanitarian. RIP.

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More votes!

Vote on the Grenelle environmental legislation (in its entirety)

Breakdown:

Assembly

UMP 304 in favour, 1 non-voting (Accoyer)
Socialist, PRG, MRC 193 in favour, 3 abstaining (2 PRG, 1 nuclear energy lobbyist, a Socialist)
GDR (Commies + Greenies) 17 abstaining (3 Greenies, the rest are Commies), 4 against (all four orthodox Commmies), 1 in favour (François de Rugy, Green MNA for Nantes)
NC 23 in favour
NI, MoDem, DLR 5 in favour, 1 abstaining (Jean Lasalle)

551 voting, 530 valid votes, majority of 266. 526 in favour, 4 against.

Vote on the RSA (active solidarities revenue), a government fund for fighting poverty proposed by Martin Hirsch, a former leftie now in government.

Assembly

UMP 279 in favour, 1 against (conservative UMP MNA that likes the death penalty), 11 abstaining, 1 non-voting (Accoyer)
Socialist, PRG, MRC 177 abstaining, 3 in favour (2 PRG, 1 Aubry-Socialist), 3 against (2 PRG, 1 socialist)
GDR (Commies + Greenies) 16 against, 4 abstaining (1 PCR, 1 Martinican nat, 2 Greenies)
NC 21 in favour, 1 abstaining (Lagarde)
NI, MoDem, DLR 3 in favour (2 MPF, 1 DLR), 4 abstaining (Bayrou and his cronies, the annoying guy from Essonne who knows who he is).

The PS should join the Liberal Party of Canada in forming the Abstention Party.

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I don't see how a French politician having a mistress is at all newsworthy.

Just that this one has an international post and is in the US.

The Socialists are, for the most part, defending him.

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(The French media typically doesn't report on politicians' sex scandals.)

Ségolène Royal, on the other hand, is clearly trying to eliminate him as a potential rival for 2012.

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Though they'd all be happy if this destroyed his chances for a 2012 run.

And, for Arnaud Montebourg, it's crystal clear that the United States, Russia, and Egypt are conspiring against Strauss-Kahn. Let's give him the last word…

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lol

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Is the NPA supposed to absorb the far-left parties?

Besancenot hopes so. But as it stands now, it realistically won't and the party will just be the LCR under a new name.


BTW, GREAT NEWS!

The MoI gnomes have decided to keep the departmental number on the new license plates!

The owner will be free to choose the departmental number he wishes, though. The freedom haters wanted to remove the numbers from license plates.

35!