French legislative elections, 2007

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Start.

A BVA projection for seats gives this:

UMP- 288 to 344 (UMP 2002- 355)
PS- 148 to 200 (PS 2002- 140)
PCF- 14 to 18 (PCF 2002- 21)
MD- 8 to 13 (UDF 2002 29)
DVD- 4 to 7 (DVD 2002 - 5)
Ecolo/VERTS- 0 to 6 (VERTS 2002- 3)
FN- 0 (=)

20 seats needed to form a parliamentary group

Attached poll:

UMP 35
PS 30
MD 9
FN 8
Verts 6
LO/LCR 5
DVD 4
PCF 3

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You need 12.5% to qualify for round two (if only one candidate breaks 12.5 or none break it, the top two proceed to R2), or alternatively you win 50% of the vote by R1. For R2, it's FPTP.

What's interesting, if there is a tie in R2, the oldest candidate is elected.

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What's the chance that Sarkozy will be forced into cohabitation with, say, Premier Laurent Fabius, or something like that?

Very unlikely. 55% hope Sarkozy will have a majority.

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Update.

Since 80% of UDF MPs supported Sarkozy, they're running as "Presidential Majority-UDF dissidents" seperate from the MD.

Take that idiotic Bayrou!

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The Parti Radical de Gauche proposes that they join with Borloo's Parti Radical to form a "great centrist party"

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Perhaps, would be interesting and would provide yet more bad news to looney toon Bayrou.

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It would'nt be surprising if the UMP got 2/3 of the seats- or more.

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Around 7550 candidates for 577 seats, of those 45% are female candidates. 13 candidates average per riding.

8456 candidates in 2002, average of 14.65 candidates per riding. 38.5% were female candidates

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Bayrou's Mo Dem is running 535 candidates (200 women, 335 men). 0 to 4 seats predicted for Bayrou's cronies.

25 of 29 UDF incumbents will run under the Parti social libéral européen banner.

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A BVA projection in terms of seat:

317-381 UMP (350+9 2002)
151-200 PS (141+8 2002)
14-21 PCF
4-11 DVD
1-2 Ecolo (3 verts 2002)
0-4 MoDem (26+3 2002)

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You don't seriously think that he'll lose his own seat, do you? He seems to have a great deal of personal popularity in the area.

Bayrou is quite popular in his departement, but the UMP is running a leader of some local countryside-farmer's organization that's quite important.

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Social_Liberal_Party

The PSLE is the new name for those UDF (80% of them) who won't support F. Bayrou.

Found this projection on Le Monde.fr:

UMP 365-415 (40%)
PS 137-153 (28%)
MoDem 2-10 (15%)

72% sure

Gov composition: 61% happy, 24% unhappy

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The above mentioned poll, TNS-Soffres looks unrealistic.

It gives 3.5% to the FN, 4% to the Greens, 3.5% to the PCF, 3.5% for LO-LCR, 1.5% for MPF, 1% for CPNT.

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UMP 42.5%, PS 28%, MD 9%, FN 5%

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Anybody following President Sarkozy's involvement in the FARC-Ingrid Betantcourt situation in Colombia?

First the FARC call on Sarkozy to create a neutral zone for prisoner exchange, then the hardline Alvaro Uribe says he supports an exchange of hostages and prisoners. Some people have a feeling the FARC-Betantcourt situation in Colombia is going to be Sarkozy's first big foreign action.

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IPSOS

Far-left 3 (-1)
PCF 4 (=)
PS/PRG/MRC 27.5 (-0.5)
Les Verts 2.5 (-0.5)
MD 9.5 (+0.5)
UMP 43.5 (+1)
DVD 1 (+0.5)
MPF 2 (=)
FN 5 (=)
CPNT 0.5 (-1)
MNR 0.5 (=)
OTH 1 (+1)

UMP landslide is predicted

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On maps:

Le Monde has released a great map showing current MNAs for the 2002-2007 legislature, and voting data for the 2nd round:

http://www.lemonde.fr/web/panorama/0,11-0@2-823448,32-913244,0.html

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IFOP projection nice to see:

UMP 410-450
PS 90-130
PCF 6-10
MD 0-6
MPF 2
VERTS 0-2
FN 0
OTH 0
LO-LCR 0

That would be over 75% of the seats for the UMP!

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It is, but for me, it's good like this.

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First round in French Polynesia yesterday:

The second round there will be (in riding Number One)

Michel Buillard (incumbent UMP) 41,50%
Oscar Temaru (UPLD-Autonomiste-PS) 40,16%

In riding 2:

Bruno Sandras (UMP) 36,98 %
Pierre Frébault (PS) 29,71 %