How "Safe" is your congressional district?

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Safe Liberal, but much less than before when the Liberals stacked up huge margins over the Tory paper candidate. The Conservatives and NDP (and Greens, since 2004) have steadily eaten into that Liberal margin, but remains a double-digit margin and we were in 2008 one of the rare constituencies where the Liberal vote increased over 2006, despite a stronger-than-usual Conservative candidate. Main reason is because Belanger was wise enough to make the local campaign on the controversial Kettle Island bridge project (which is unpopular in Ontario and very popular in Quebec). Could swing in a 1984-like Tory landslide.

Saint-Malo has never elected a non-centrist/Gaullist since its in existence, but the UMP margin has shrunk a significant amount in a few years. (It did have a PS mayor from the 1977 pink wave to 1983, when a lot of the '77 Socialists got kicked out) Couanau remains safe, probably as long as he wants to stay there, but his majorities are getting narrower, with the centrists often within striking distance of runoff access. IIRC, he got 57 in 2007, but 53 in the 2008 municipal runoff with the MoDem taking 10%. Saint-Malo-Nord (the wealthier areas, eg Parame, Rotheneuf and Intra-Muros) are very safe UMP, but Saint-Malo-Sud (eg Saint-Servan, Saint-Jouan commune) voted against Couanau in 2007 and has a PS councillor departmentally. The local PS is dominated by Jacky Le Menn, a failed politician (now a Senator, sadly, with the crook Edmond Herve) and Isabelle Thomas, another failed politician.