Chile 2009-2010

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Chile may be heading towards an historic election this weekend.

President Michelle Bachelet is term limited. She was elected in 2006 as the candidate of the old Concertación coalition, a coalition of the Bachelet's Socialists, the Christian Democrats and smaller liberal/radical type outfits. They have governed since the fall of Pinochet, and they're a rather moderate bunch.

The opposition in 2006 was the Alliance for Chile, split between two major parties: Joaquín Lavín of the UDI, which is pro-Pinochet and batsh**t crazy; and Sebastián Piñera's National Renewal, which is generally more anti-Pinochet (Piñera says he voted NO in 1989). Piñera is a uber-wealthy businessman, Lavín is a nutjob. Lavín and Piñera ran against each other in 2006, and Piñera made the runoff and he has since emerged as the leader of the right.

The hard left, composed mostly of the Communist Party and concentrated in the Juntos Podemos Más coalition is worth between 5 and 10% of the vote.

Piñera won the right's nomination unchallenged. Former Christian Democrat President Eduardo Frei Ruiz-Tagle (1994-2000) won the left's nomination easily. Jorge Arrate, an old revolutionary type, defeated the hard left's 2006 candidate, the Humanist Tomás Hirsch very easily. Congressman Marco Enríquez-Ominami (ex-PS), a 30-something Franco-Chilean politician/filmmaker/son of anti-Pinochet revolutionary announced his candidacy as a centre-left independent and won the support of the Humanists (who left the Communist-led Juntos Podemos Más) and smaller leftie outfits.

Piñera has created a new coalition to replace the Alliance, named the Coalition for Change. He's dropped the nationalistic tones of the right, and replaced notably the right's trademark logo with a rainbow-coloured star (the rainbow is the logotype of the Concertacion). He's established himself since 2006 as a moderate centrist right-winger, and his campaign has put lots of stock into rhetoric similar to Sarkozy's in 2007 and Obama's in 2008. He has also been rather centrist in his discourse, claiming that he'll continue some of the left's policies. His main achievement is that he has established himself as a right-winger different than old Pinochet-loving right-wingers like the nutjob Lavin. That's rather important.

The latest poll I can find is from Nov 20, which has Piñera leading Frei 38-24 in the first round, with Enríquez-Ominami at 20% and Arrate at 7%. Piñera leads 47-37 in the runoff against Frei and 44-40 against Enríquez-Ominami.

Parliamentary elections will be held on the same day as the first round (December 13) and the runoff for President on January 17, 2010.

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I've always thought of the UDI as the most right wing major party in the world, counting both social and economic issues.

In the world? That's probably a bit of an overstatement, though you're obviously not entirely wrong on the general point.

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Senate races to watch:

5th constituency: Incumbent Senator Carlos Ominami, adoptive father of Marco, is running for re-election as an Independent (after winning in 2001 for the PS). He is likely to win, along with Lily Pérez (RN).

6th constituency: The son of fmr. Pres. Ricardo Lagos, also named Ricardo Lagos (Weber) is running for Senate for the CPD. He is likely to win, but since the election in this constituency will split 1-1 between the right and left, the major race is on the right between Lavín (even though he's from the affluent suburbs of Santiago and not Valparaiso) and incumbent deputy Francisco Chahuán (RN). In the electoral system, the right's seat goes to the top vote-getter of the right coalition, and the race for that spot is very tight between Lavín and Chahuán. I think Lavín will win.

Chile uses a stupid electoral system, another of Pinochet's creations. Marco is proposing electoral reform notably.

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I've seen the numbers Pinera 42, Frei 31 out somewhere on the interwebs.

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The phenomenon of separate gender voting booths is rather South American. Bolivia uses it for sure, perhaps Mexico as well.

Also, good news!

Nutjob Lavín seems to have lost (rofl) in the 6th. Lagos (PPD) is on top, with 33.2%, but on the right its Chahuán (RN) who is on top with 28.2% against 27.9%. lulz

In the 5th, Carlos Ominami (Ind) has lost badly. He's fifth and only at 16.7%. Rather bad defeat for him.

Also, in the Chamber, the right has 58 seats, the left 57, an outfit called 'Chile Limpio Vote Feliz' has 3 and there are 2 Indies. Not sure if all counting is done, since I can't find that out on elecciones.gob.cl

Amusingly, there were 2804 votes cast in Chaitén, which was destroyed by a volcano in 2008. I know that only 60ish people still live in the actual city.

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Frei is gaining ground:

Sebastián Piñera: 52.7% (-3.2)
Eduardo Frei: 47.3% (+3.2)

Source: Universidad del Desarrollo / La Segunda Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,203 Chilean adults, conducted on Dec. 17, 2009. Margin of error is 3.2 per cent.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/34736/piera_could_defeat_frei_in_chilean_ballot

Not surprising, given that Frei has lots of potential reserves with Enriquez-Ominami and Arrate's voters. I think a close runoff is the result to be expected, and that since the night of the first round.

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Sebastián Piñera Echenique 51,87%
Eduardo Frei Ruiz-Tagle 48,12%

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Frei has conceded. Piñera has won.

It's an important historical moment that's not be underestimated. This is the first time the Chilean right has won an election since Jorge Alessandri's election in 1958 (though the right supported Frei - a Christian Democrat - in 1964). That being said, Piñera doesn't have a majority in either chamber and will need to rely, probably, on a bunch of independents and regional independents in both chambers. And his policies won't be that huge of a change, since the main tone of his campaign was focused on law and order rather than on economic stuff. Though I'm sure Election Politique will be able to say OMG PINOCHET IS BACK.

It will also be interesting to see where Marco goes from there. Maybe he'll rejoin the Concertacion and try to modernize it from within. Since Frei was too old, uncharismatic and represented the 'old' guard.

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Nice way to make fake headlines. Also, there's already a thread on this.