French Regionals 2010

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You forgot FN at 19% in the first round. It's an internal, and most numbers are decent but the FN seems too high and the Greenies too low.

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It's an internal, and most numbers are decent but the FN seems too high and the Greenies too low.

Definitely to high since Bompard's joke party is at 3% too. Did you ever heard about this compagny, Isama?

Bompard has some ex-FN support and some ex-MNR support, but the MPF has disowned him and we all saw in June what dissident far-right clowns, even with some institutional backing, can poll in elections. Lol Carl Lang. Anyway, I never heard of Isama, but their website indicates they're quite new and have never polled any elections (though they do usual political polls).

http://www.isama.fr/qui/presentation.php

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Ligue du Sud?

A far-right outfit founded by the MPF (ex-FN) Mayor of Orange, intentionally named to imitate a certain Italian fascist-regionalist party. Bompard opposes Sarkozy, but the MPF was quick to disown him and Patrick Louis/Phillipe de Villiers made clear that they don't condone him.

He's gained the support of the racists, what's left of the MNR, the 2 locals who like Carl Lang, and a few FN dissidents like Guy Macary.

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Languedoc-Roussillon by Sofres, PS internal

Frêche (PS) 29%
Couderc (UMP) 26%
Roumegas (Greens-EE) 14%
Revol (PCF-PG-NPA) 9%
Jamet (FN) 8%
Drevet (AEI) 7%
Jeanjean (DVD-CNI) 4%
Dufour (MoDem) 3%

Runoff

Frêche (PS) 38%
Couderc (UMP) 33%
Roumegas (Greens-EE) 24%
Jamet (FN) 5%

Frêche (PS) 54%
Couderc (UMP) 38%
Jamet (FN) 8%

Frêche (PS) 40%
Couderc (UMP) 34%
Roumegas (Greens-EE) 26%

Frêche (PS) 54%
Couderc (UMP) 46%

Issues with this poll:
The EE list is polled as the "Green list"
LO and Ligue du Midi not tested
FN numbers seem awfully low if they're at 8-10% nationally, especially if the Ligue du Midi (1-2%) is not tested

Basically a poll to comfort Frêche, and the numbers will probably please the Greenies a bit. The AEI, which is a fringe ecolo-crazies alliance at best, has a huge name recognition advantage with the candidacy of Patrice Drevet... a former weather forecaster!

The MoDem is blowing up all over the place. The polling in regions for them is terrible, in Poitou-Charentes, PDL and other regions their members are joining PS lists (in Poitou) or UMP lists (in PDL) and they're having a hell of a time to scramble finding candidates, and they're left mostly with a municipal councillor in Trifouilly-les-Oies and that kind of crap-quality. As Les Guignols say so eloquently, le MoDem, c'est une branlée électorale par année

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Ifop poll (phone)

UMP-NC: 27
PS: 27
Europe ecologie: 13 %
FN: 8,5 %
Modem: 6,5%
communist + parti de gauche: 5%
NAP (Besancenot: 3%
LO (Laguiller): 2%

IFOP was pretty poor in the Euros, but this doesn't seem that bad (though the FN is surprisingly low).

If the UMP is really at 27%, they're fucked all over. Champagne-Ardenne would be a wet dream, and they'd need to focus on keeping flipping Alsace. I'll wait for confirmation of this trend, but if it's true, it's likely to be worse than 2004.

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Interesting sh**t in Languedoc-Roussillon.

Pierre Laval Georges Frêche said some controversial stuff on Fabius, so the national PS Politburo is very pissed off at him (until now, they had reluctantly supported him, since apparently being a racist quasi-fascist is preferable to hating Fabius).

The left has always been pissed, notably the Greenies and most of the PCF-PG-NPA, and there is still a deal between Greenies and Left Front for the runoff. But now, the national PS in the name of the 'values of the left' (lol) is announcing the dissident candidacy of the Mayor of Montpellier, Hélène Mandroux. Hélène Mandroux, originally a Frêchiste, but who entered the anti-Frêche line in 2008 or so after Frêche took the presidency of the Montpellier Agglomeration Community over her, is the biggest opponent in the regional PS to Frêche (with Eric Andrieu, leader of the PS in the Aude of some sort). Most of the regional party is dominated by Frêchistes (his proxy won the primary with 66% against Andrieu).

Mandroux says her list is in the name of "rassemblement de la gauche et des écologistes" (rally of the left and ecologists). That's nice, but you're late on the bandwagon since the Greenies have been proposing to dissident Socialists a spot on their list since last year. It will be interesting to see if the PS-Greens-PCF can create a united front in the runoff and face off with Frêche and Couderc.

I'm sure Couderc is quite happy about all this, since this might be the only region where they sky isn't pitch black concerning the UMP's hopes.

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As if anybody cares, I'm changing my race ratings in a few regions:

Languedoc-Roussillon: DVG/Frêche Favoured > Lean DVG/Frêche Favoured
Alsace: UMP Favoured > Lean UMP
Champagne-Ardennes: Lean UMP > Tossup
Pays-de-la-Loire and Basse-Normandie: Pure Tossup > Tossup/Tilt PS

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Giacobbi, Zuccarelli and Renucci (not sure about Bucchini) seem to have made a deal in Corse for the runoff where the top-placed list gets the presidency, and other executive spots are awarded proportionally. It isn't final, and nothing is final in Corse especially when dealing with sworn enemies of the past.

Still, I'll move it from Pure Tossup to Lean Left

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IFOP poll in the Centre

Novelli (UMP) 34%
Bonneau (PS) 22%
Delavergne (Green) 11%
Loiseau (FN) 9%
Fesneau (MoDem) 8%
Beaufils (FG) 5%
NPA 4%
AEI 3%
Megdoud (LO) 2%
Verdon (PDF) 2%

http://www.ifop.com/media/poll/1052-1-study_file.pdf

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lol.

Not entirely surprising since Richert is an awful candidate, quite worse than Zeller who had centrist appeal. And the alliance between the MEI and the Greens, it really helps the ecolos do even better in a region where they're strong though divided.

And while we're on the topic of debacle...

Ifop poll in Corse
Rocca Serra (UMP) 30%
Giacobbi (PRG-PS) 12%
Simeoni/Angelini (PNC-Aut) 12%
Zuccarelli (PRG) 10%
Renucci (CSD) 9%
Bucchini (FG) 7%
Talamoni (Nationalists) 5%
Baccerelli (AEI) 5%
Cardi (FN) 5%
Toma (MoDem) 2%
Battini (Forza Corsica) 2%

In the runoff...
Left (PS+PRG+CSD+FG) 41%
Rocca Serra (UMP) 39%
Simeoni/Angelini (PNC-Aut) 17%

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I really don't believe in this poll on Alsace: the difference between the FN scores when it's the PS or the Greens in the 2nd round is... surprising.

I think Greenies have a larger 'rallying' effect than a normal Socialist could have...

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btw, in Alsace, if we look at the various 'rapports de force'

in 2004:
Right 34%
EXD 28%
Left 24%
Others/centre 11% (MEI 7% + buralistes 4%)
EXG 3%

in 2010:
Left 40.5% (+16.5)
Right 34% (nc)
EXD 15% (-13)
Others/centre 6% (-5)
EXG 4.5% (+1.5)

However, around 5-6% of Green voters (counted all as left) would vote for a MEI list (imo), so the real left might be more around 34%-36%

in the Euros:
Right 37%
Left 34%
Centre 10%
EXD 8%
Others/ecolo 6%
EXG 5%

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TNS Sofres national poll confirms the UMP is in a situation worse than in 2004:

UMP 30%
PS 28%
Greens 13%
FN 8.5%
FG 6%
MoDem 4%
NPA 3.5%
LO 3%
Others 4%

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If anyone has an abstention poll...

My personal guess is between 40 and 45% or so. Higher than 2004, for sure, and around 2008 levels.

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Full and correct results of the Languedoc-Roussillon poll by OpinionWay for the Greenies (so much for the theory of OpinionWay being the big bad right-wing pollster)

Frêche (DVG) 24%
Couderc (UMP) 23%
Roumegas (Greens) 12%
Mandroux (PS) 11%
Jamet (FN) 10%
Revol (PG-PCF-NPA) 9%
Drevet (AEI-MoDem) 8%
Jeanjean (DVD) 3%

or

Frêche (DVG) 26%
Couderc (UMP) 23%
Roumegas (Greens-PS) 19%
Jamet (FN) 10%
Revol (PG-PCF-NPA) 10%
Drevet (AEI-MoDem) 8%
Jeanjean (DVD) 3%

Runoffs:

Frêche (DVG) 34%
Couderc (UMP) 32%
Roumegas (Greens-PS-FG) 30%
(6% missing lol)

Frêche (DVG) 32%
Couderc (UMP) 30%
Roumegas (Greens-PS-FG) 27%
Jamet (FN) 8%

There is also a poll in PACA for the AEI by OpinionWay

PS 27%
UMP 27%
FN 14%
Greens 13%
MoDem 4%
PCF-PG 4%
AEI 4% (6% with MoDem, 5% with AC)
NPA 3%
AC 2%
Ligue du Sud 1%
LO 1%

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Also, the Drevet-MoDem alliance was quite short, because the MoDem has broken the deal and Marc Dufour will be the MoDem's separate candidate.

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Two OpinionWay polls:

IDF:
Pécresse (UMP) 30% (nc)
Huchon (PS) 26% (+2)
Duflot (Greens) 18% (-3)
Arnautu (FN) 6% (+1)
Laurent (FG) 5% (-2)
Dolium (MoDem) 5% (-1)
Governatori (AEI) 3% (nc)
Besancenot (NPA) 3% (+1)
NDA (DLR) 2% (new)
Mercier (LO) 1% (-1)
Federbusch (UCR) 1% (new)

Huchon (PS) 55% (-2)
Pécresse (UMP) 45% (+2)

National image:

UMP 30% (nc)
PS 27% (+4)
Greens 10% (-4)
FN 9% (-1)
FG 6% (+2)
MoDem 6% (-2)
DVD 3% (new)
NPA 4% (nc)
AEI 2% (nc)
DVD 3% (new)
DVG 1% (new)
LO 1% (-1)
Other 1% (-2)

s/t Left (including MoDem) 50% vs. s/t Right 33%

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Two OpinionWay polls:

IDF:
Pécresse (UMP) 30% (nc)
Huchon (PS) 26% (+2)
Duflot (Greens) 18% (-3)
Arnautu (FN) 6% (+1)
Laurent (FG) 5% (-2)
Dolium (MoDem) 5% (-1)
Governatori (AEI) 3% (nc)
Besancenot (NPA) 3% (+1)
NDA (DLR) 2% (new)
Mercier (LO) 1% (-1)
Federbusch (UCR) 1% (new)

Huchon (PS) 55% (-2)
Pécresse (UMP) 45% (+2)

National image:

UMP 30% (nc)
PS 27% (+4)
Greens 10% (-4)
FN 9% (-1)
FG 6% (+2)
MoDem 6% (-2)
DVD 3% (new)
NPA 4% (nc)
AEI 2% (nc)
DVD 3% (new)
DVG 1% (new)
LO 1% (-1)
Other 1% (-2)

s/t Left (including MoDem) 50% vs. s/t Right 33%

Besancenot is curiously weak...

NPA is weak nationally, Besancenot's popularity is sliding and IDF is unfavourable to the far-left these days.

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Apparently the PACA poll has 26% of EE voters and 52% of MoDem voters voting UMP in the runoff. I have a hard time seeing 26% of EE voters, more than nationally, voting for a markedly right-leaning UMP candidate in the runoff unless there's some sort of recent bad blood between PS and UMP. I'm skeptic to say the least.

MoDem at 3% in PACA is not surprising. They have a no-name candidate, they're weak in the region and they're polling crap nationally.

57-43 for Royal in Poitou is good, and goes with the national trend (plus she's popular in the region).

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On the topic of abstention, voter interest seems to be rising (the Freche incident seems to have stimulated turnout) which is unsurprising.

37% of those polled said they talked about the regional elections, 17% higher than a month before. It's even higher than at the same time in 2004.

At the same time, an OpinionWay poll in IDF predicted turnout at 59% (61% in the 2004 first round).

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A bit of humour:

Apres le NPA qui présente une femme voilée, le PS présente une femme cinglée

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A bit of humour:

Apres le NPA qui présente une femme voilée, le PS présente une femme cinglée

lol, about who?? And from whom is that?

Les Guignols (February 8) about Segogo.

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TNS-Sofres/Logica poll in PACA, which makes more sense

Vauzelle (PS) 30%
Mariani (UMP) 29%
Le Pen (FN) 13%
Vichnievsky (Greens) 13%
Coppola (FG) 4%
Miran (AEI) 3%
Levraud (MoDem) 2%
Bompard (LDS) 2%
Bonnet (LO) 2%
Godard (NPA) 1%

Vauzelle (PS) 49%
Mariani (UMP) 37%
Le Pen (FN) 14%

Vauzelle (PS) 53%
Mariani (UMP) 47%

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OpinionWay poll in Poitou-Charentes



Royal (PS) 34%
Bussereau (UMP) 29%
Coutant (EE) 15%
Lacoste-Lareymondie (FN) 7%
Monier (MoDem-AEI) 5%
Jean (FG) 5%
Gaillard (LO) 3%
Verdin (DLR) 1%
Rossignol (NPA) 1%

Royal (PS) 58%
Bussereau (UMP) 42%

CSA (national)

UMP 33%
PS 27%
EE 13%
FN 8%
MoDem 5%
FG 4% (lol)
AEI 3%
NPA 3%
LO 2%
DVD 1%

CSA - IdF

UMP 34%
PS 26%
EE 15%
FN 6%
MoDem 5%
FG 5%

None of the others mentioned on LeMonde.fr

PS 57%
UMP 43%

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Novelli can't win.