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Hashemite
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« Reply #200 on: March 15, 2010, 05:09:48 PM »


Yup, Le Drian has seen that he can do without the Greenies and he's been acting quite arrogantly (surprising coming from him). Should be fun.

I suppose Troadec's voters will vote Green.

Well, Le Drian will win anyways. I don't see Malgorn winning, she has not enough reserves.

Oh, no, Le Drian can't lose, that's for certain. I never thought that.

No UMP candidate, especially not Malgorn, has enough reserves!
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« Reply #201 on: March 15, 2010, 07:06:41 PM »

Apparently talks between Greenies and PS haven't been perfect, though they have a deal in PACA, Poitou, Alsace, Midi-Pyrenees (lol Onesta) and Champage-Ardenne; nothing Bretagne, unknown in IdF... Yet knowing how the Greenies are nothing more than the PS' little sidekick, they'll get together.
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« Reply #202 on: March 16, 2010, 08:17:12 AM »

Question:

How is it determined in each region which candidate can advance to the run-off in 1 week ?

Well, the PS has been ahed of EE in every region, so they will keep the head of lists in everyone. As for the lists, it should be proportional to the number of votes got.

I´m just asking, because in 2004 for example in Aquitaine, the FN candidate ranked 4th in the 1st round behind the UDF candidate, but it was the FN candidate who advanced to the second round.

And why do some regions have run-offs with 3 candidates and others just with 2 candidates and in the case of Corse even more ? How is that determined how many candidates advance to round 2 ?

Maybe Hashemite knows more about that.

Theoretically, the threshold is 10% of votes cast (as opposed to registered voters), and if you break 5% your list can merge with another list to guarantee you, in some sort, councillors. That said, the EE lists and FG list qualified will merge with the PS (except Breizh, it seems) and in 2004 most UDF lists dropped out.

Filing stuff is entirely different from one round to another, there's no connection.

The UDF used to merge its lists with the UMP in the Second Round, so they became one list. The FN instead never does. An in Corse the threshold is smaller, to fit with the island's particular politics.

Careful now. In most regions, the UDF merged with the UMP (Aquitaine, IDF, BZH, Centre, Champagne etc). But in places like Basse-Normandie, Bourgogne; relations between UMP and UDF were so bad that they didn't merge but the UDF did not, for that matter, stay in the runoff.

Also, in Champagne and Midi, the Greenies didn't merge with the PS in 2004.
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« Reply #203 on: March 16, 2010, 08:46:42 AM »

Comments:


Low turnout is the right's base in eastern Ille-et-Vilaine and other right-leaning areas. Confirms what everybody else saw in the country. It's probably the sign of major rural discontent with the UMP, as well.

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PS: no surprises, best results in working-class areas or rural leftie areas. Low results in central Bretagne, major cities due to regionalists and Greenies. Good results also in more swing areas in central northern Morbihan around Pontivy, it usually leans right but it is a swing area, and has been such for a long time.
EE: Rennes and its large suburbia, the wealthier parts of the Cote du granite rose in the Cotes-d'Armor (maybe 'algues vertes' played an effect here).
PB: Troadec's strong base in Carhaix and the area (it's from here that he really improved upon the PB's 2009 result), and the rest of the map is a map of the 'Bretonitude' of the area: traditionally Celtic and Breton-speaking areas for him, Gallo Bretagne less so.

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UMP: Wealthy areas, old reactionary right strongholds in the eastern reaches of Ille-et-Vilaine/Leon/parts of eastern Morbihan. Bad in cities in suburbia...
MoDem: friends-and-neighbors for Joncour around Saint-Brieuc. No centrist UDF pattern at all (all those have totally disappeared). Map of a joke party.
Laot: rural areas (shock!). I feel he could've done better overall, though.

Thanks for these maps, Fabien.
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« Reply #204 on: March 16, 2010, 10:48:11 AM »

Communal results of interest

Large cities:

Paris: UMP 28.95, PS 26.26, GRN 20.57, FG 6.11, FN 6.1, MODEM 3.96, DLR 2.92, NPA 2.34
Paris-2: GRN 28.94, PS 25.52, UMP 24.18, FG 5.21, MODEM 4.79, FN 4.45 (bobo)
Paris-16: UMP 60.53, PS 11.31, GRN 9.31, FN 7.06, DLR 3.91, MODEM 3.07 (snobs)
Paris-20: PS 30.69, GRN 24.62, UMP 14.86, FG 10.55, FN 6.5, NPA 3.84, MODEM 3.69 (poors)
Marseille: PS 29.6, UMP 22.37, FN 21.48, GRN 10.05, FG 7.2, NPA 2.72, MODEM 2.38
Marseille-4: UMP 32.9, PS 22.75, FN 16.73, GRN 13.41, FG 5.44, MODEM 2.73, AEI 2.29
Marseille-8: PS 39.44, FN 24.76, FG 11.28, UMP 10.06, GRN 5.84, NPA 3.51
Marseille Arr3: PS 40.24, FN 22.89, UMP 11.36, FG 8.91, GRN 5.92, NPA 5.01 (poorest)
Marseille Arr8: UMP 35.49, PS 21.32, FN 17.85, GRN 11.98, FG 5.14, MODEM 2.67 (wealthiest)
Lyon: UMP 28.54, PS 26.8, GRN 20.32, FN 9.77, FG 5.34, MODEM 4.89
Lyon-1: GRN 29.98, PS 28.04, UMP 18.73, FG 9.43, FN 4.97, MODEM 3.63, NPA 3.36 (bobo)
Lyon-2: UMP 40.37, PS 20.39, GRN 17.11, FN 10.79, MODEM 4.77, FG 3.38 (rich people)
Lyon-4: UMP 26.85, PS 25.83, GRN 25.47, FG 6.88, FN 6.86, MODEM 3.9 (bobo)
Lyon-6: UMP 45.04, PS 20.49, GRN 15.39, FN 9.29, MODEM 4.39, FG 2.9 (rich people)
Lyon-9: PS 31.19, UMP 20.79, GRN 20.66, FN 10.64, FG 5.78, MODEM 5.18 (gentrifying old working-class faubourg)
Toulouse: PS 35.06, UMP 22.38, GRN 18.88, FN 8.64, FG 7.61, MODEM 3.66
Nice: UMP 29.95, FN 23.14, PS 23.13, GRN 10.28, FG 4.94, MODEM 2.33
Nantes/Naoned: PS 36.5, UMP 27.17, GRN 18.47, FG 6.1, FN 4.92, MODEM 3.87, REG 2.06
Strasbourg: UMP 30.32, PS 29.08, GRN 18.51, FN 7.95, MODEM 3.65, FG 2.98, AA 2.57
Montpellier: DVG 40.73, UMP 13.86, GRN 12.62, PS 11.36, FN 7.5, FG 7.31, DVD 2.63, AEI 2.49
Bordeaux: PS 35.19, UMP 28.4, GRN 13.4, MODEM 6.78, FN 6.48, FG 5.64
Lille: PS 34.09, UMP 18.38, GRN 18.07, FN 11.79, FG 6.69, MODEM 4.64, NPA 3.19
Rennes/Roazhon: PS 39.68, UMP 21.1, GRN 17.96, PCF 4.83, MODEM 4.75, FN 4.51, NPA 2.9, REG 1.81
Le Havre: PS 29.95, UMP 24.48, FG 11.37, FN 10.66, DLR 5.36, NPA 2.63
Toulon: UMP 36.75, PS 23.14, FN 18.74, FG 4.39, MODEM 2.36, AEI 2.05
Grenoble: PS 27.6, EE 26.5, UMP 19.4, FN 8.9, FG 8.1, MODEM 4.47, NPA 2.87
Angers: UMP 35.66, PS 33.58, GRN 15.03, FN 5.47, FG 5.23, MODEM 3.92 (Bechu's city)

Cities of interest:

Pau: PS 34.43, UMP 21.65, MODEM 13.6, GRN 10.83, FN 7.86, FG 5.72, NPA 2.76
Bordères: PS 37.9, MODEM 31.53, FG 7.96, GRN 6.69, UMP 6.37 (Bayrou's village)
Fulleren: GRN 44.74, UMP 21.05, FN 15.79, PS 7.89, AA 3.95 (Waechter's village)
Mulhouse: UMP 24.17, PS 23.13, FN 19.17, GRN 15.04, AA 3.86, NPA 3.13, FG 3.09, MODEM 2.97, DVD 2.51 (Bockel's city)
Ajaccio: Renucci 21.58, REG 18.20, UMP 17.81, FG 10.55, NAT 9.78, FN 6.8, Zuccarelli 4.22, Giacobbi 3.96, MODEM 3.94
Bastia: Zuccarelli 28.65, REG 18.57, FG 13.75, UMP 10.23, NAT 8.83, Giacobbi 7.65, FN 4.7
Venaco: Giacobbi 65.01, UMP 11.85, REG 7.27, FG 4.21, NAT 4.97 (Giacobbi dynasty village)
Piano: REG 27.27, UMP 18.18, Giacobbi 18.18, FN 13.64, FG 9.09, AEI 9.09, NAT 4.55 (100% for Le Pen, April 21 2002)
Porto-Vecchio: REG 34.33, UMP 33.83, NAT 7.44, FG 6.88, MODEM 5.13, Giacobbi 3.57, FN 2.89 (Rocca Serra dynasty town)
Sartène: FG 31.49, MODEM 24.24, REG 14.38, UMP 12.79, NAT 6.87, Giacobbi 2.77, Zuccarelli 2.45 (Bucchini's town)
Calvi: UMP 52.27, REG 19.23, Giacobbi 8.99, FG 4.72, NAT 4.67, FN 3.74 (Ange Santini's town)
Villiers-le-Bel: PS 47.77, FN 13.62, UMP 13.49, GRN 8.04, FG 4.51, NPA 3.45 (Soumare's town)
Neuilly-sur-Seine: UMP 67.05, GRN 8.41, PS 7.81, FN 6.33, DLR 3.95, MODEM 2.75 (Sarko)
Yerres: DLR 49.78, PS 16.19, GRN 10.79, UMP 7.83, FN 5.33, FG 4.6, NPA 2.06 (NDA's town)
Béziers: UMP 34.44, DVG 26.26, FN 14.77, PS 6.7, FG 6.54, GRN 5.48, AEI 2.72 (Couderc's town)
Pézenas: DVG 32.97, UMP 21.15, FN 10.41, PS 8.61, FG 8.07, AEI 7.94, GRN 7.67 (Drevet's adopted town)
Palavas-les-Flots: DVD 51.72, DVG 18.32, FN 8.48, UMP 6.63, GRN 4.75, FG 3.66, PS 2.64 (Jeanjean's town, wealthy resort town)
Grabels: DVG 29.5, FG 24.26, UMP 17.13, GRN 8.37, FN 8.23, PS 6.91, AEI 2.6 (Revol's town, working-class suburb of Montpellier)
Carhaix-Plouguer: REG 42.38, PS 25.22, UMP 12.44, GRN 6.33, PCF 3.71, NPA 3.13, FN 2.86 (Troadec's town)
Saint-Brieuc: PS 32.92, MODEM 23.57, UMP 14.01, GRN 12.3, FN 4.95, PCF 4.47, NPA 3.52 (Joncour's town)
Trébeurden: PS 31.03, UMP 23.23, GRN 19.18, FN 6.23, MODEM 5.99, REG 3.87, NPA 3.02 (Hascoet's adopted town)
Hennebont: PS 30.64, PCF 21.01, UMP 17.47, GRN 12.4, FN 5.97, MODEM 3.32, NPA 3.18, REG 2.63 (PCF top candidate is mayor)
La Trinité-sur-Mer: UMP 49.83, PS 20.28, GRN 11.12, FN 8.81, MODEM 3.48, REG 2.43 (Le Pen's family hometown)
Lanildut: UMP 27.34, PS 27.1, GRN 13.32, rural 12.38, FN 6.07, REG 3.04, NPA 2.34, PCF 2.34 (Laot-rural list leader's hometown)
Douarnenez: PS 33.49, UMP 27.17, GRN 13.1, PCF 6.23, FN 5.31, REG 4.38 (first PCF commune in France, 1921)
Donzère: UMP 27.8, FN 23.25, PS 21.74, GRN 11.13, FG 5.2, MODEM 3.95, NPA 2.96 (Besson's village)
Hénin-Beaumont: FN 39.08, PS 27.27, GRN 10.1, FG 7.87, UMP 7.26, NPA 2.78, CNI 2.37
Saint-André-lez-Lille: MODEM 28.63, PS 22.71, UMP 16.53, GRN 12.16, FN 9.95, FG 5.29, NPA 2.21 (Henno-MoDem top candidate is mayor)
Saint-Amand-les-Eaux: FG 58.07, UMP 15.07, FN 9.92, PS 7.04, GRN 5.02 (Bocquet's town)
Calais: PS 21.75, FG 20.56, FN 18.67, UMP 16.96, GRN 9.54, NPA 4.22, MODEM 3.42, CNI 3.05
Chamalières: UMP 42.3, PS 19.92, GRN 15.39, FG 6.94, FN 6.56, MODEM 6.26 (Giscard family stronghold)
Saint-Amant-Roche-Savine: FG 60.92, UMP 11.49, FN 9.58, GRN 7.28, PS 5.75 (Chassaigne's town)
Vichy: UMP 40.77 (lol), PS 22.18, FN 13.39 (yeah...), GRN 10.03, FG 6.37, MODEM 3.8, NPA 2.72
Commentry: PS 36.86, UMP 23.4, FG 16.21, FN 6.9, GRN 6.02, NPA 5.81 (first socialist town in France, 1882 or something)
Massiac: UMP 44.51, UMP 35.56, GRN 5.49, MODEM 4.42, FN 4.18, FG 3.58 (Marleix's town)
Melle: PS 52.62, UMP 20.72, GRN 11.71, FG 5.16, FN 4.08 (Royal's stronghold)
Saint-Georges-de-Didonne: UMP 45.8, PS 28.03, GRN 10.51, FN 8.57, MODEM 3.13 (Bussereau's town)
Vitteaux: UMP 46, PS 34.5, FN 9.5, GRN 5.25, MODEM 2.75 (Sauvadet's town)
Saint-Pierre-des-Corps: FG 45.71, PS 17.63, GRN 10.88, UMP 10.9, FN 5.99, NPA 3.31, PDF 2.31 (Beaufils-FG top candidate in Centre's hometown, industrial suburb of Tours)

I have enough for now.
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« Reply #205 on: March 16, 2010, 10:53:37 AM »

- Laot reached 15-20% in many small communes... That's pretty good.

But as soon as you are in a circle of 25 km of great cities or as soon as you are in small cities (look at Vitré...), he is between 0 and 1.5%.
In Ille-et-Vilaine, that's amazing.

Overall, he got 2.3%. I think he could have reaches 4-5% rather easily. The fact that he's dead in cities isn't surprising, really, of course, just like CPNT was dead in cities in its heyday.

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It's very interesting how little effect local environmental issues have for the Greenies (except maybe Notre-Dame-des-Landes - the Greenies won over 30% there), around nuclear plants, mediatic environmental problems or open-air trash cans etc. In some countries, a good part of the Green vote comes from areas with recent environmental or ecology-related problems.
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« Reply #206 on: March 16, 2010, 11:07:46 AM »

Apparently talks between FG-NPA and the PS in Limousin have broken down and there will be triangulaire between PS, UMP and FG-NPA there. The PS didn't want an NPA candidate in an eligible spot.

In NPDC, talks are apparently resuming between the FG and PS, after the FG was rumoured to have walked out and ready to spark a quadrangulaire.
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« Reply #207 on: March 16, 2010, 11:30:42 AM »

Well... It's pretty stupid that they didn't merge their lists in Bretagne. Anyways, Le Drian will probably win without EE, and the only result will be that they will have less seats in the Council. A pity for them.

Le Drian was giving them 10 seats, against 11 in 2004. Obviously, they had the honour to say no.
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« Reply #208 on: March 16, 2010, 11:37:31 AM »

Well... It's pretty stupid that they didn't merge their lists in Bretagne. Anyways, Le Drian will probably win without EE, and the only result will be that they will have less seats in the Council. A pity for them.

Le Drian was giving them 10 seats, against 11 in 2004. Obviously, they had the honour to say no.

It all depends to the score they made (yeah, I'm to lazy to look at the results and see how much they would deserve with a proportional repartition), but yes, it seems a clear underrepresentation.

EE says they deserve 14-15.
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« Reply #209 on: March 16, 2010, 12:37:55 PM »

As always, geoclip has results for almost every level: http://www.geoclip.fr/fr/
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« Reply #210 on: March 16, 2010, 06:51:14 PM »

Just a little question to our Breton secessionist, why is the PB so strong in Loire-Atlantique from Notre-Dame-des-Landes to the boundary since it seems significantly weaker on the other side of the Brittany border ?

I'm not a secessionist! I'm not sure with the PB did well in that area, it didn't do that well there in 2009 so it's either some sort of very local factor maybe surrounding the candidate, weird results caused by turnout or something else. I didn't think it can be because of the airport, that's the Green thing though I think Troadec opposed it as well.
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« Reply #211 on: March 16, 2010, 06:58:25 PM »

News: there is finally no deal between FG and PS in Limousin, so a three-way there. No deal either in Picardie between FG (non-Gremetz, 5% or so) and the PS. And of course, l'exception bretonne for the PS-EE deal.

A new map, results by constituency:



lol at Marleix's base in Cantal. lol also at NDA's base in Yerres. Favourite son patterns to the max. The results around Saumur and Chateau-Gontier (the UMP deputy, Favennec, was on the UMP list, though) for the UMP are also interesting, as is Joyandet's strong showing in Pontarlier and Vesoul (where he's mayor) and also the UMP's strength in northern Bas-Rhin.

What is really amazing is how sh**t-poor the UMP did in Lorraine, it's quite shocking. Also, another thing to pick up is how poorly the UMP did out west. Auxiette and Beauvais are ahead of the UMP by the first round in their regions, showing a continuation of the recent turn to the left of the historically right-wing reactionary belt of the inner west.

As in 2004, the destruction of the UMP in working-class areas is shocking, though not unsurprising.

Lorraine, Midi and Bretagne are the 3 regions where the UMP did not win any constituency.
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« Reply #212 on: March 16, 2010, 07:21:38 PM »

What happened to UMP in Lorraine? UMP is pretty good there usually, if I remember well.

It's hard to say, really. A mix of these things probably:

1. Good but little-known candidate with little base (he isn't mayor, deputy only since 2002)
2. Gandrange is here, and it has been shown it has hurt the UMP throughout the region
3. Gérard Longuet's racist statements days before the vote (Longuet was president until 2004 and top-candidate in the Meuse)
4. Popular PS incumbent (I'm not sure, just a guess)
5. FN at 14.87%

As for Orne, Beauvais was mayor of Argentan, which is in the constituency where he broke 40%.
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« Reply #213 on: March 16, 2010, 08:16:11 PM »

Party maps:











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« Reply #214 on: March 17, 2010, 08:20:24 AM »

News: there is finally no deal between FG and PS in Limousin, so a three-way there. No deal either in Picardie between FG (non-Gremetz, 5% or so) and the PS. And of course, l'exception bretonne for the PS-EE deal.

A new map, results by constituency:



lol at Marleix's base in Cantal. lol also at NDA's base in Yerres. Favourite son patterns to the max. The results around Saumur and Chateau-Gontier (the UMP deputy, Favennec, was on the UMP list, though) for the UMP are also interesting, as is Joyandet's strong showing in Pontarlier and Vesoul (where he's mayor) and also the UMP's strength in northern Bas-Rhin.

What is really amazing is how sh**t-poor the UMP did in Lorraine, it's quite shocking. Also, another thing to pick up is how poorly the UMP did out west. Auxiette and Beauvais are ahead of the UMP by the first round in their regions, showing a continuation of the recent turn to the left of the historically right-wing reactionary belt of the inner west.

As in 2004, the destruction of the UMP in working-class areas is shocking, though not unsurprising.

Lorraine, Midi and Bretagne are the 3 regions where the UMP did not win any constituency.

Do you know how many constituencies were won by each party ? Wink

including DOMs

PS-DVG-Giacobbi 367
UMP 191
FG 4
PPM-Letchimy 3
Regionalist 2 (1 Femu a Corsica, 1 MIM)
PCR 2
DLR 1
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« Reply #215 on: March 17, 2010, 09:08:45 AM »

News: there is finally no deal between FG and PS in Limousin, so a three-way there. No deal either in Picardie between FG (non-Gremetz, 5% or so) and the PS. And of course, l'exception bretonne for the PS-EE deal.

A new map, results by constituency:



lol at Marleix's base in Cantal. lol also at NDA's base in Yerres. Favourite son patterns to the max. The results around Saumur and Chateau-Gontier (the UMP deputy, Favennec, was on the UMP list, though) for the UMP are also interesting, as is Joyandet's strong showing in Pontarlier and Vesoul (where he's mayor) and also the UMP's strength in northern Bas-Rhin.

What is really amazing is how sh**t-poor the UMP did in Lorraine, it's quite shocking. Also, another thing to pick up is how poorly the UMP did out west. Auxiette and Beauvais are ahead of the UMP by the first round in their regions, showing a continuation of the recent turn to the left of the historically right-wing reactionary belt of the inner west.

As in 2004, the destruction of the UMP in working-class areas is shocking, though not unsurprising.

Lorraine, Midi and Bretagne are the 3 regions where the UMP did not win any constituency.

Do you know how many constituencies were won by each party ? Wink

including DOMs

PS-DVG-Giacobbi 367
UMP 191
FG 4
PPM-Letchimy 3
Regionalist 2 (1 Femu a Corsica, 1 MIM)
PCR 2
DLR 1

Wow... If only that were the results of 2007 legislqtives.

It's only the first round, and with the left's division, it doesn't mean much of anything. You'll see a much, much bleaker image for the UMP on Sunday. Much bleaker.
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« Reply #216 on: March 17, 2010, 11:24:08 AM »

Be careful, Antonio, it's just a FPTP map.

Precisely : the PS will do even better in the second round.

Oh no, I just wanted to answer your question on "a so big majority with onyl 2 points more".

Indeed, winning 367 constituencies against 191 when you have only a 2-points edge seems weird to me. Such result wouldn't have surprised me in the Second Round, because indeed the PS's majority will be far higher.

Such are the wonders of FPTP. The PQ won 76 seats to the Liberals' 48 in Quebec 1998 despite losing the popular vote 43-44. FPTP amplifies everything, making a small lead in the popular vote a sizable majority.
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« Reply #217 on: March 17, 2010, 12:50:23 PM »


including DOMs

PS-DVG-Giacobbi 367
UMP 191
FG 4
PPM-Letchimy 3
Regionalist 2 (1 Femu a Corsica, 1 MIM)
PCR 2
DLR 1

No FN anywhere? Surprising to me.

Their support out east was generally quite uniform, and their only major concentrations are in Pas-de-Calais 14 (Henin-Beaumont), which they narrowly lost, and in some other constituencies in PACA. It's not concentrated enough.
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« Reply #218 on: March 17, 2010, 06:53:03 PM »

A map of the FN vote inside the 3 major cities:



Interesting stuff going on with the very wealthy also voting for the FN in high numbers (compared to the city average)
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« Reply #219 on: March 17, 2010, 07:13:32 PM »

Polls

Ifop in Poitou-Charentes
PS 63%
UMP 37%

OpinionWay in Alsace
PS 43.5%
UMP 43.5%
FN 13%

Ifop in Aquitaine
PS 59%
UMP 29%
MoDem 12%

CSA in Alsace
UMP 44%
PS 43%
FN 13%
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« Reply #220 on: March 17, 2010, 10:07:40 PM »
« Edited: March 17, 2010, 10:17:32 PM by Breizh »

In that example, could the Greens and the UDF have merged with each other?  They got over 10% of the vote between them.  I know they wouldn't, but I'm not sure if they could.

No. They can each merge with a list over 10%, but not with each other.

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The new threshold in Corsica was 7% for runoff, 5% to merge (instead of 5% and no threshold respectively in 2004); plus a larger majority bonus (9 instead of 3 seats). The Corsican system is applied only to Corsica, where the legislature is in fact a territorial assembly, not a regional council per se.

Not in Marseille, though, right? The wealthy areas are along the coast south of the city as I recall, in the 8th arrondissement, one of the weaker FN areas.

Not really, the FN still got a good 18% or so there, which is not good compared to the region but good compared to similar areas in Paris or Lyon. But the FN is really a disparate coalition of diverging, unstable, sometimes even conflicting protest elements; it's hard to do good cross-regional comparisons in elections like these.

I would personally guess that because Marseille is much more pied-noir, but also much more ethnically diverse and economically polarized (Paris has poor areas, but no real inner-city dirt poor areas like the old PCF areas of Marseille's 8th sector; Lyon is even wealthier and middle-class on a general outlook) that the FN vote is a bit more stagnant (though not entirely, this election shows it well. This time you had much stronger showings in UMP areas than in old PCF/PS areas) and is a bit more based on old insecurity/immigration issues than it seems to be in Paris and Lyon (the high vote in Paris-16 is probably not based much on traditional FN issues such as insecurity but an anti-UMP vote from the bourgeois).

unrelated, but amusing results in Longwy: PS 37.53, UMP 13.35, DLR 13.31, PCF 9.61, FN 9.22, GRN 6.18, MNR 2.73, NPA 2.55
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« Reply #221 on: March 18, 2010, 08:02:36 AM »

Georges Frêche (IND): 58%
Raymond Couderc (UMP): 28%
France Jamet (FN): 14%

*facepalm*

Let's all say a big thanks to the PS, again! "Principles and values" in the first round, but no "principles and values" in the runoff. Let's all vote for a so-called leftist (Pierre Laval was also a member of the SFIO, so I suppose the PS would vote Laval in a race against him and Couderc...) because he's not a rightist, even if the leftist is a racist populist of the 1930s kind.

But Languedoc-Roussillon is an awful region. It's either racists, Pieds-Noirs, obnoxious wealthy retirees in disgusting 1960 cities or old SFIO rural folks. I'd rather live in Saint-Nazaire.
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« Reply #222 on: March 18, 2010, 09:10:05 AM »

lol



Notice how they don't actually shake hands. I suppose they still hate each other.
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« Reply #223 on: March 18, 2010, 03:22:40 PM »

My personal analysis of the FN vote: http://welections.wordpress.com/2010/03/18/the-fn-and-the-french-regionals/
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« Reply #224 on: March 18, 2010, 06:06:54 PM »

http://www.france-politique.fr/doc/regionales2010/modem-alsace.pdf
http://www.france-politique.fr/doc/regionales2010/modem-normandie-haute.pdf

Notice the use of the old UDF logo on the tracts of the MoDem in Alsace and Haute-Normandie.

(I'm not sure if the Alsatian stuff is in German and French or Alsatian and French. I would suppose German)
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