French Regionals 2010

[Hash]

You might also have noticed that I don't place absolute trust in polls (as judged by my comments about CSA lol polls), but I do understand that they're not absolutely wrong and they tell, generally well, the current mood (French pollsters being generally quite good, compared to other nations). I also understand the election is not today, and things can change, but it's getting rather late for the UMP to turn things around from where they are today. I predict turnout to be around 50-55%, which is very low for a non-Euro election in France.

CSA poll in Centre
Novelli (UMP) 30%
Bonneau (PS) 24%
Delavergne (EE) 15%
Loiseau (FN) 11%
Beaufils (FG) 6%
Fesneau (MoDem) 5%
Megdoud (LO) 4%
Lasserre (NPA) 3%
Verdon (PDF) 2%

Bonneau (PS) 50%
Novelli (UMP) 38%
Loiseau (FN) 12%

Bonneau (PS) 59%
Novelli (UMP) 41%

59-41 seems way too big, but CSA sucks as rule. Didn't bother to look at crosstabs much.

OpinionWay in Corse (weird that they poll there)
Rocca Serra (UMP) 22%
Simeoni (PNC) 17%
Bucchini (FG) 12%
Giacobbi (PRG-PS) 12%
Zuccarelli (PRG) 10%
Renucci (CSD) 6%
Baccarelli (AEI) 6%
Cardi (FN) 6%
Talamoni (CL) 6%
Toma (MoDem) 2%
Battini (DVD) 1%

Giacobbi-Zuccarelli-Renucci (PRG-PS-CSD) 32%
Rocca Serra (UMP) 29%
Simeoni (PNC) 19%
Bucchini (FG) 12%
Talamoni (CL) 8%

Giacobbi-Simeoni-Renucci (PRG-PS-PNC-CSD) 41%
Rocca Serra (UMP) 33%
Bucchini (FG) 14%
Zuccarelli (PRG) 12%

Giacobbi-Bucchini-Zuccarelli-Renucci (PRG-PS-FG-CSD) 45%
Rocca Serra (UMP) 33%
Simeoni-Talamoni (PNC) 22%

(the threshold here is now 7%, so

[Hash]

CSA poll in Centre
Novelli (UMP) 31%
Bonneau (PS) 24%
Delavergne (EE) 15%
Loiseau (FN) 8%
Beaufils (FG) 7%
Fesneau (MoDem) 6%
Verdon (PDF) 3.5%
Lasserre (NPA) 3%
Megdoud (LO) 2.5%

Bonneau (PS) 48%
Novelli (UMP) 42%
Loiseau (FN) 10%

Bonneau (PS) 54%
Novelli (UMP) 46%

Much more reasonable runoff numbers than CSA, of course.

Ifop in Poitou-Charentes (change on last Ifop poll)
Royal (PS) 35% (+2)
Bussereau (UMP) 29% (nc)
Coutant (EE) 12.5% (-1.5)
Lacoste-Lareymondie (FN) 8% (+1)
Monier (MoDem) 6% (+1)
Jean (FG) 5.5% (+0.5)
Rossignol (NPA) 3% (-1)
Gaillard (LO) 1% (nc)

Royal (PS) 56% (-1)
Bussereau (UMP) 44% (+1)

OpinionWay in "Pays-de-la-Loire"
Bechu (UMP) 32%
Auxiette (PS) 30%
Magnen (EE) 15%
Gallerneau (MoDem-AEI) 7%
Gicquel (FG-NPA) 6%
Neveux (FN) 6%
Le Beller (LO) 3%
Flippot (PB-NTFB) 1%

Auxiette (PS) 55%
Bechu (UMP) 45%

Well, it's obvious the the sack of crap will win, but 55-45 seems a tad too generous with him. 53-47 seems more like it, to me.

And some extra numbers for the Ifop poll in NPDC:
MoDem 5%
LO 3%
NPA 2.5%
'jeunes agriculteurs' 1.5%
CNI-"Ch'tis list" 1.5%

Hopefully there's some sort of poll in Bretagne soon, mostly for the first round which could be interesting with the 'rural list' and Troadec's list.

[Hash]

There was a TNS-Sofres poll in Lorraine, but the results are so lolworthy that I don't feel the need to waste my time on it.

[Hash]

There was a TNS-Sofres poll in Lorraine, but the results are so lolworthy that I don't feel the need to waste my time on it.

Apparently those idiots are re-doing it. They've polled Champagne-Ardenne (57-43 for the left in runoff. LOL)

OpinionWay poll nationally (I'm starting to really like OpinionWay given the current stock of pollsters, CSA and Sofres rofl).

UMP 31% (-1)
PS 27% (+1)
Greenies 13% (-1)
FN 9% (nc)
FG 6% (+1)
MoDem 5% (nc)
NPA 3% (+1)
DVG 2% (+1)
LO 1% (nc)
AEI 1% (-1)
DVD 1% (nc)
Others 1% (-1)

[Hash]

Sofres has a small sample (700) in Alsace, and there's no way Richert, who's a jerk and has no crossover appeal, will poll 41% when a man like Zeller polled only 34% in the 2004 first round.

Sofres has been awful lately, worse than CSA even.

[Hash]

Can someone please do a regional map which shows pickups or change from the leading party according to the last polls ?

If Alsace polls are correct, just look at the 2004 map, just with Corse red instead of blue. But making real predictions in Corse is kinda foolish.

[Hash]

Avalanche of polls

Ifop in Picardie

Cayeux (UMP) 29%
Gewerc (PS) 23%
Porquier (EE) 14%
Guiniot (FN) 13.5%
Gremetz (Stalinist) 6%
Aury (FG) 5.5%
Mathieu (MoDem) 5.5%

Gewerc (PS) 48%
Cayeux (UMP) 39%
Guiniot (FN) 14%

Abstention around 46%

Comment: Very good for Greenies, disappointing for the FN, good result for the combined Communists, surprisingly high MoDem, disappointing runoff for the left (speaking in current conditions).


OpinionWay in Centre

Novelli (UMP) 31%
Bonneau (PS) 27%
Delavergne (EE) 16%
Loiseau (FN) 9%
Beaufils (FG) 5%
Megdoud (LO) 4%
Verdon (PDF) 3%
Fesneau (MoDem) 3%
Lasserre (NPA) 2%

Bonneau (PS) 53%
Novelli (UMP) 36%
Loiseau (FN) 11%

Bonneau (PS) 60%
Novelli (UMP) 40%

Comments: 60-40 runoff (coming from a 66-34 split of FN votes in favour of the PS) seems a wee bit excessive. 40% of FN votes for the UMP would already make more sense.


TNS-Sofres in Rhone-Alpes

Grossetête (UMP) 28%
Queyranne (PS) 25%
Meirieu (EE) 21%
Gollnisch (FN) 8%
Begag (MoDem) 7%
Martin (FG) 6%
Arthaud (LO) 2%
Combet (NPA) 2%
Dulac (Spartakus) 1%

Queyranne (PS) 62%
Grossetête (UMP) 38%

Queyranne (PS) 57%
Grossetête (UMP) 35%
Gollnisch (FN) 8%

Queyranne (PS) 36%
Grossetête (UMP) 33%
Meirieu (EE) 24%
Gollnisch (FN) 7%

Comment: As always, TNS-Sofres has unusually huge numbers for the left in the runoff which aren't entirely off the point but are excessively high.


TNS-Sofres in Basse-Normandie

Beauvais (PS-PCF) 31%
Le Grand (UMP) 30.5%
Dufour (EE) 14%
Thomas (MoDem) 8%
Dupont (FN) 7%
Coulon (NPA-PG) 5%
Casevitz (LO) 3%
Le Rachinel (PDF) 1.5%

Beauvais (PS-PCF) 57%
Le Grand (UMP) 43%

Comment: again, 57-43 is excessive. Nothing wrong with the crosstabs of transfers that they show, but those sneaky people don't show the transfers for the FN! Good result for the MoDem in a traditionally strong region for them and where they have a good, young candidate who has a centre-right past.


TNS-Sofres in Haute-Normandie

Le Vern (PS) 36%
Le Maire (UMP) 25%
Bay (FN) 10%
Taleb (EE) 9%
Jumel (FG) 8%
Jeanne (MoDem) 3%
Lapeyre (LO) 3%
Poupin (NPA) 2%
Frau (AEI) 2%
Lang (PDF) 1.5%
Briere (DLR) 0.5%

Le Vern (PS) 57%
Le Maire (UMP) 32%
Bay (FN) 11%

Le Vern (PS) 60%
Le Maire (UMP) 40%

Comments: the crosstabs to justify a 60-40 runoff don't seem too messed up


TNS-Sofres in Languedoc-Roussillon

Frêche (DVG) 34%
Couderc (UMP) 24%
Mandroux (PS) 10%
Roumegas (EE) 9%
Revol (FG-NPA) 9%
Jamet (FN) 7%
Drevet (AEI) 4%
Jeanjean (DVD) 1%
Roudier (Ligue du Midi) 1%
Plana (LO) 0.5%
Martinez (PDF) 0.5%

Frêche (DVG) 40%
Couderc (UMP) 31%
Roumegas (EE-PS-FG-NPA) 29%

Frêche (DVG) 40%
Couderc (UMP) 30%
Mandroux (PS-EE-FG-NPA) 30%


Ifop in Corse

Rocca Serra (UMP) 23.5%
Simeoni (PNC) 15.5%
Giacobbi (PRG-PS) 15%
Talamoni (CL) 9.5%
Zuccarelli (PRG) 9%
Bucchini (FG) 8%
Renucci (CSD) 6%
Baccarelli (AEI) 6%
Cardi (FN) 5%
Toma (MoDem) 1.5%
Battini (DVD) 1%

United Left 41%
Rocca Serra (UMP) 31%
Simeoni-Talamoni (PNC-CL) 26%


Ipsos in Reunion

Vergès (PCR-FreeDom-MoDem) 33.5%
Robert (UMP) 19%
Vergoz (PS) 13%
Defaud (EE) 9%
Virapoullé (DVD) 8%
Magamootoo (DVD aut) 7.5%
Ramassamy (DVD aut) 4%
Thien Ah Koon (DVD) 3%
Arnachellum (DVD aut) 1%
Pouny (DVD aut) 1%
Payet (LO) 1%
Boyer (Ind) 0%

aut means autonomist.

Interesting file on the candidates and lists:
http://www.ifop.com/media/pressdocument/163-1-document_file.pdf

[Hash]

Can someone please do a regional map which shows pickups or change from the leading party according to the last polls ?

If Alsace polls are correct, just look at the 2004 map, just with Corse red instead of blue. But making real predictions in Corse is kinda foolish.

I think that Alsace will mainly depend of the FN results in the first round. It's to be the only region where the UMP seems to take advantage of the absence of the FN in the runoff, and the FN is surprisingly low here, compared to NPDC for example...

Generally, the FN voter in Alsace tends to be much less working-class and more white-rural-Protestant conservative. So it does make sense that the FN is doing poorly and the UMP benefits.

[Hash]

TNS-Sofres in PACA

Mariani (UMP) 29% (=)
Vauzelle (PS) 27% (-3)
Vichinevsky (EE) 14% (+1)
Le Pen (FN) 13% (=)
Coppola (FG) 6% (+2)
Levraud (MoDem) 4% (+2)
Bompard (LDS) 2% (=)
Miran (AEI) 2% (-1)
Godard (NPA) 1.5% (+0.5)
Bonnet (LO) 1.5% (-0.5)

Vauzelle (PS) 51% (+2)
Mariani (UMP) 36% (-1)
Le Pen (FN) 13% (-1)

Vauzelle (PS) 55% (+2)
Mariani (UMP) 45% (-2)

TNS-Sofres in Idf

Pecresse (UMP) 30% (-2)
Huchon (PS) 26% (=)
Duflot (EE) 18% (+4)
Laurent (FG) 7% (=)
Besancenot (NPA) 6% (+0.5)
Arnautu (FN) 4% (-1)
Dolium (MoDem) 4% (=)
NDA (DLR) 2.5% (-1.5)
Governatori (AEI) 1% (=)
Mercier (LO) 1% (-0.5)
Kanoute (DVG) 0.5%

Huchon (PS) 60% (+2)
Pecresse (UMP) 40% (-2)

[Hash]

Ifop in "Pays-de-la-Loire"

Bechu (UMP) 31.5%
Auxiette (PS) 29%
Magnen (EE) 14%
Gicquel (FG-NPA) 8%
Neveux (FN) 7.5%
Gallerneau (MoDem-AEI) 6.5%
Le Beller (LO) 2%
Flippot (PB-NTFB) 1.5%

Auxiette (PS) 56%
Bechu (UMP) 44%

If you're going to buy runoff polling before the actual first round (which I don't), then the general image which Sofres (which is sh**t), Ifop and also OpinionWay sees is that the runoffs could be absolutely brutal, but absolutely brutal, for the right. On this poll, 8% for the FG seems a bit high. The PCF is strong only in parts of Sarthe and limited parts of Loire-Atlantique...

Also, 1.5% for the Parti Breton here would be great. Region-wide, they won 0.6% or so in the Euros, so 1.5% regionwide would be absolutely glorious.

OpinionWay in Rhone-Alpes

Grossetête (UMP) 28%
Queyranne (PS) 27%
Meirieu (EE) 20%
Gollnisch (FN) 9%
Martin (FG) 6%
Begag (MoDem) 5%
Arthaud (LO) 2%
Combet (NPA) 2%
Dulac (Spartakus) 1%

Queyranne (PS) 61%
Grossetête (UMP) 39%

Queyranne (PS) 57%
Grossetête (UMP) 34%
Gollnisch (FN) 9%

The numbers in a two-way runoff are weird: the transfers of FG, EE, MD and FN voters to the left are 86, 94, 58, 20. Makes no sense.

Ifop national poll

PS 29.5% (-1.5)
UMP 29.5% (+2)
EE 12% (-1)
FN 9% (-0.5)
FG 6% (-0.5)
MoDem 4.5% (+0.5)
NPA 1.5% (-0.5)
LO 1.5% (nc)
FG-NPA 1.5% (+0.5)
AEI 1% (nc)
DVD 1% (nc)
Other 3% (+1)

Bayrou 2007 voters: UMP 31, PS 27, MoDem 19, EE 15 etc

[Hash]

TNS-Sofres in Franche-Comté... apparently all hope is not lost for the derecha.

Joyandet (UMP) 36%
Dufay (PS) 29%
Fousseret (EE) 10%
Montel (FN) 9%
Ternant (FG) 4%
Grudler (MoDem-AEI) 3%
Treppo (LO) 3%
Lyonnais (NPA) 2.5%
Buchot (ecologie solidaire) 2.5%
Devilliers (Fascist) 1%

Dufay (PS) 50%
Joyandet (UMP) 41%
Montel (FN) 9%

Dufay (PS) 52%
Joyandet (UMP) 48%

[Hash]

also, interesting runoff departmental breakdowns:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Latest polling nationally also seems to indicate a slight boost of voting intentions for the Greenies.

Also, in IDF, the Greenies' latest dare is to become the first left-wing party in terms of seat: «C'est mécanique, explique-t-il, si l'on croit les sondages, la droite aura 70 sièges et la gauche 140, soit une vingtaine au Front de gauche, une dizaine au PRG, autant au MRC et ensuite, les Verts et le PS au coude-à-coude…» (in 2004, the left had 130 seats, the right 64 and the FN 15. The FN will lose all seats).

[Hash]

Ton abréviation NTFB n'est pas très heureuse... Cela fait un peu "Nique ta foutue Bretagne"...
Désolé, ce n'est pas de très bon goût, mais je n'ai pas pu m'empêcher...
Depuis NTM, tout ce qui commence par NT... est un peu problématique !

C'est pour ca que j'aime mieux dire le Parti breton ou Strollad Breizh...

Which brings me to a rant on the list names...

The UMP's catch name includes 'ensemble'. Ensemble what? Together we'll get trounced? Together we'll fail?
The Left Front is: Ensemble pour une [REGION] a gauche, solidaire, ecologique et citoyenne... What's a 'région citoyenne'?
The NPA, is, as always, apparently "100% left" but now it's also 'ecologique' and 'social'...
Fernard Le Rachinel in Basse-Normandie apparently likes to kill trees and ink: POUR NOTRE NORMANDIE, NOS EMPLOIS, NOTRE SECURITE, NOS FAMILLES, NOS TRADITIONS, NOTRE IDENTITE. LE PARTI DE LA FRANCE. LISTE D'UNION DES NATIONAUX NORMANDS CONDUITE PAR FERNAND LE RACHINEL
Also in Basse-Normandie, the PS is 'la gauche solidaire, innovante et ecologique'
In Bretagne, Malgorn (UMP) wants us to draw a map: Ensemble, dessinons la Bretagne. KK, give me paper and a pen and I'll draw it. Also in Bretagne, Le Drian shows he's kinda regionalist: La Bretagne solidaire, creative et responsable. Yes, NTFB is a bit dumb as well, but it makes sense if you go further: 'we will make you a nation', something on those lines
According to Bonneau (PS), you're lucky if you live in the Centre: "La région Centre: Plus qu'une région, une chance!". But Novelli says you need to change to live better, and he also doesn't want you to forget his name: HERVÉ NOVELLI: IL FAUT CHANGER POUR MIEUX VIVRE EN RÉGION CENTRE
Marie-Guite Dufay (PS) in Franche-Comté: "Une Franche-Comté d'avance, juste, écologique et solidaire"
For Denanot (PS) in the Limousin, despite having a negative growth rate, "Le Limousin, terre d'avenir"
Hénart (UMP) in Lorraine has a weird list name: "Priorité emploi - Rassemblons les Lorrains'
There is "La liste ch'ti" (CNI) in NPDC...
For Cayeux (UMP) in Picardie: "Envie de Picardie". My first reaction was "envie de pipi"
The Stalinist's list in Picardie: "colere et espoir"
The Drug Addict (PS) in the land of crazies: POITOU-CHARENTES, UNE ENERGIE D'AVANCE : L'ECOLOGIE, LES EMPLOIS, LA JUSTICE SOCIALE (where is 'la démocratie participative' or 'l'ordre juste'??)
And other empty worded horrors.

It's interesting to see 'ecologie' and 'ecologique' being the new hot word, for every list!

Also, the word 'solidaire' ought to be banned from these names. Just like 'social'

[Hash]

The situation overseas:

Guadeloupe

Victorin Lurel (PS), elected in 2004 defeating the emblematic figure of the right, Lucette Michaux-Chevry (RPR-UMP), is running for re-election. He has managed to obtain the support of the Greenies (notably Harry Durimel, the figure of the overseas-Antillian green movement), the local MoDem, the post-communist PPDG but also part of the GUSR (a centre-left big tent party, on the verge of explosion) and notably the island's sole right-wing deputy, Gabrielle Louis-Carabin, who is in fact second on Lurel's list. Gabrielle Louis-Carabin hates Michaux-Chevry and her daughter Penchard (SoS for Overseas, and as awful as her mother) with a passion and she left the UMP. Somewhat surprising given that Gabrielle Louis-Carabin is historically Sarkozy's local ally, with LMC being Chirac's old crony, but Sarkozy seems to have been influenced by Penchard and the remaining influence of LMC.
Éric Jalton, a former Socialist elected deputy in 2002 with the support of the right is now running to Lurel's left in an attempt to gain the support of the nationalist/syndicalist movements, notably the LKP. He has the support of the nationalist UPLG, as well as another faction of the GUSR and some PS dissidents. Despite running to Lurel's left, it has been rumoured that he has entertained talks of a anti-Lurel front with the UMP.
The candidate of the UMP is Blaise Aldo, mayor of Sainte-Anne, and the candidate favoured by Penchard-Sarkozy. The price of Aldo's candidacy was the destruction of the remnants of the local UMP and an internal right-wing civil war led by Louis-Carabin and other UMP dissidents who wanted the nomination. Aldo has the support of Daniel Marsin, GUSR Senator on the party's right and close to JM Bockel's party. Marsin was candidate in 2004, and is now third on the list. Penchard herself is second on the list.
Originally supposed to run their own list, the UMP dissidents have ended up rallying Jeanny Marc, GUSR (yes, again!) deputy.
Other candidates include two LKP-supported Trots.

2004 results: PS 44.3, UMP 37.6, Marsin 5.5, nats 3.9, Green 2.9, div-Losio 2.1, div 1.6, LO 1.2, div 1 (runoff: PS 58.2, UMP 41.8)

and a poll for RFO:

Lurel (PS-MoDem-Greens-PPDG-GUSR-DVD) 49%
Jalton (DVG-UPLG) 18%
Aldo (UMP-GUSR) 17%
Marc (GUSR-DVG-DVD) 6%
Octavie Losio (DVG) 3%
Cornet (DIV) 2%
Plaisir (EXG) 2%
Nomertin (LO) 1%
Lesueur (DVG) 1%

Guyane

Antoine Karam, PSG incumbent since 1992 is not running for re-election. The left-field to succeed him is vast and divided.
Gabriel Serville is the candidate of the PSG.
Christiane Taubira, PRG-Walwari deputy and 2004 candidate, is running with the support of the Walwari but also the nationalist MDES.
The region's other deputy, Chantal Berthelot (ex-PSG, DVG) is also running with her new tin-pot named party ('A gauche en Guyane' or some other gay name of that genre).
Léon Jean-Baptiste-Édouard is the candidate of th local section of the PS. The PSG isn't the local section of the party, but rather a very old scission of the SFIO in Guyane. The local PS here is irrelevant.
Gil Horth is the candidate of the FDG - a centre-left party whose major figure is fmr. Senator Georges Othily, also close to Bockel.
José Gaillou is the Green candidate. The Greens are usually strong naturally in Guyane, often in the Amazonian hinterlands.
The original candidate of the UMP was the mayor of Saint-Laurent-du-Maroni, former Tourism Minister and former deputy (defeated in 2007 by Berthelot) Leon Bertrand; but given that he's spent some recent time in jail, they dumped him. Their new candidate is surprisingly strong, the DVG mayor of Cayenne - Rodolphe Alexandre (elected in 2008 defeating a PSG incumbent) who's quite popular. Of course, there needs to be egomaniacal dissidents, this time the strongest of the 3 dissidents is Roger Arel, and Leon Bertrand (a Chiraquien) is third on his list. The UMP is hoping to gain this region, and it could actually be it's best hope for a gain (especially if there's egomaniacs on the left, and knowing that annoying sod Taubira, there is).

2004 results: UMP 24.3, PSG 22.5, FDG-Othily 19.3, Taubira 18, nat 6.6, Green 4.9, div 2.6, PS 2 (Runoff: PSG 37.2, UMP 31.6, FDG-Taubira 31.2)

Martinique

There isn't much appetite for independence, but Alfred Marie-Jeanne (MIM) has been the leader of the region since 1998, mainly due to divided weak opposition and a high personal vote. However, defeated in the status referendum earlier this year and weakened by his age, he is vulnerable, especially given his strong opposition.
Serge Letchimy, the very popular PPM deputy-mayor of Fort-de-France is running on a coalition supported by the PPM and the local PS (FSM).
However, Letchimy will need the support of the RDM - a scission of the PPM formed by Senator/President of the CG Claude Lise in the runoff. Madeleine de Grandmaison, a leftie former MEP is the top candidate, she had been the PPM's 2004 candidate.
Pierre Samot is running again for the BPM, a splinter of the old Communist Party on the island.
The UMP candidate is former deputy André Lesieur, generally inactive in the recent politics on the island. Max Orville, ex-UDF, is the MoDem's candidate.

2004 results: MIM 37.3, PPM 17.2, BPM 16.2, UDF 13.9, UMP 6.8, DVG 4.8, LO 3.1, DVG 0.7 (runoff: MIM 53.8, PPM-BPM 31, UDF 15.2)

Réunion

Paul Vergès, Communist leader of the island since 1998 is running again supported the Alliance, which includes the MoDem and some PS dissidents. His major opponent on the left is Michel Vergoz, already candidate for the PS in 2004. Vincent Defaud is the Green candidate, hoping to break 10% (13% in the Euros).
There is a UMP civil war between Didier Robert, deputy and Jean-Paul Virapoullé, Senator. Sarkozy managed a short-term alliance, but Robert broke from the alliance and Virapoullé is leading a dissident candidacy from Robert (official UMP candidate). André Thien Ah Koon, former deputy, is also running as is Nadia Ramassamy, already a DVD candidate in 2004.

2004 results (main lists): PCR 34.5, UMP 25.7, PS 15.9, Ramassamy 6.1, DVD 3.6 etc. (runoff: PCR 44.9, UMP 32.9, PS 22.3)

Except for Guyane, a very bad situation for the UMP, unsurprising given how Sarkozy has proved to be totally inept and inattentive to the overseas and also how his choice of allies has destroyed what was left of the right in the DOMs... Maybe with the likely trouncing of Penchard's cronies in Guadeloupe, he'll dump that bitch (excuse the language, but I hate her).

[Hash]

Régon citoyenne, lol. Left-wing buzzwords. Surprised there's no région sociale.

I find 'région écologique' to be even more annoying nowadays, given that it's the buzzword for everybody.

[Hash]

I suck at predictions like most people do, but I will give a general classification for major results of interests by region.

Firstly, the chances of the FN to break 10%:
Certainty: PACA, NPDC, Picardie
Very likely: Alsace, Champagne-Ardenne, Haute-Normandie
More likely than not: Franche-Comté, Lorraine, Rhône-Alpes
More unlikely than likely: Bourgogne, Centre, Languedoc-Roussillon
Low: Aquitaine, Corse (7% threshold), Île-de-France, Midi-Pyrénées, Basse-Normandie
Extremely low: Auvergne, BZH, Limousin, PDL, Poitou-Charentes

The MoDem's best results:
Aquitaine (9-12%)
Basse-Normandie (6-9%)
Bretagne (6-9%)

The Left Front's (+ PG-PCFdiss lists) chances to break 5% and be eligible to merge with the PS:
Very likely: Aquitaine, Auvergne, Corse, Languedoc-Roussillon (NPA support), Limousin (NPA support), Midi-Pyrénées, NPDC, Haute-Normandie
Likely: Centre,  Île-de-France,
More likely than not: Bretagne, Franche-Comté, Pays-de-la-Loire (NPA support), Poitou-Charentes, PACA, Rhône-Alpes
More unlikely than likely: Lorraine, Picardie (due to Gremetz)
Extremely low: Alsace
N/A: Bourgogne, Champagne-Ardenne, Basse-Normandie

And, since everybody cares, my prediction for Troadec in Bretagne is between 3 and 4%.

[Hash]

Régon citoyenne, lol. Left-wing buzzwords. Surprised there's no région sociale.

I find 'région écologique' to be even more annoying nowadays, given that it's the buzzword for everybody.

Yah 'écologique' and 'citoyen' are clearly the buzzwords nowadays, 'social' became totally out, and rather bad connoted, pitiful.

I'm happy that 'la république sociale' is out, for historical reasons.

[Hash]

TNS-Sofres (ugh) is France Television and Le Monde's pollster for exit polls:

» 12h-17h : participation
» 18h : estimation de l'abstention
» 20h : estimation des résultats au niveau national et dans 5 régions :
   PACA, Poitou-Charentes, Alsace, Rhône-Alpes et Languedoc-Roussillon.
» 21h : estimation Île-de-France

ftr, I've found that France 2 has some coverage from around 19:30 to 21:30; LCP-Public Senat has coverage from 19:50 on and goes for around 5 hours. France24 and probably I-Tele, LCI etc will also have coverage.

[Hash]

TNS-Sofres (ugh) is France Television and Le Monde's pollster for exit polls:

» 12h-17h : participation
» 18h : estimation de l'abstention
» 20h : estimation des résultats au niveau national et dans 5 régions :
   PACA, Poitou-Charentes, Alsace, Rhône-Alpes et Languedoc-Roussillon.
» 21h : estimation Île-de-France

ftr, I've found that France 2 has some coverage from around 19:30 to 21:30; LCP-Public Senat has coverage from 19:50 on and goes for around 5 hours. France24 and probably I-Tele, LCI etc will also have coverage.

Yah, I think I'll begin with France2, and maybe zapping on TF1, I'll go on others if these ones stop too early to my state.

Good choice for 5 regions.

I think I'll go with LCP-Public Senat, they'll probably have better analysis and less stupid hacks than France2's "Yell at each other contest".

[Hash]

A rather old Ifop poll for only Alpes-Maritimes and the Var:

Alpes-Maritimes (2004 comparison result, if applicable, in brackets; 2009 Euros)
UMP 32% (29.3%; 35.1%)
PS 22% (30.9%; 10.7%)
FN 16.5% (25%; 11.2%)
EE 15% (17.1%)
FG 5.5% (4.9%)
MoDem 3.5% (6.2%)
Ligue 2.5%
AEI 1% (3.4%; 4.2%)
LO 1% (0.5%)
NPA 1% (2.8%)

Var (2004 comparison result, if applicable, in brackets; 2009 Euros)
UMP 39% (28.5%; 34.5%)
PS 19% (30.1%; 12.4%)
FN 13% (24.1%; 10.7%)
EE 12.5% (14.6%)
FG 7.5% (5.1%)
MoDem 2.5% (6.1%)
Ligue 1.5%
AEI 2% (3.3%; 4.2%)
NPA 2% (3.6%)
LO 1% (0.7%)

Falco (UMP top candidate in Var) gives the local list a big boost: if he had been candidate, this would have been a tossup region

[Hash]

TNS-Sofres (ugh) is France Television and Le Monde's pollster for exit polls:

» 12h-17h : participation
» 18h : estimation de l'abstention
» 20h : estimation des résultats au niveau national et dans 5 régions :
   PACA, Poitou-Charentes, Alsace, Rhône-Alpes et Languedoc-Roussillon.
» 21h : estimation Île-de-France

ftr, I've found that France 2 has some coverage from around 19:30 to 21:30; LCP-Public Senat has coverage from 19:50 on and goes for around 5 hours. France24 and probably I-Tele, LCI etc will also have coverage.

Yah, I think I'll begin with France2, and maybe zapping on TF1, I'll go on others if these ones stop too early to my state.

Good choice for 5 regions.

I think I'll go with LCP-Public Senat, they'll probably have better analysis and less stupid hacks than France2's "Yell at each other contest".

Belgium and swiss press internet websites will give results before french equivalent.

We know.

[Hash]

t/o at 12:00: 16.07% (+1.2% on 2009, -2.4% on 2004)

[Hash]

Fun infographic flashy thingee: http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/regionales-2010/region-par-region.php

[Hash]

t/o at 17:00: 39.29% (+6% on 2009, -10% on 2004).

I estimate turnout at 50-53%.

[Hash]

lol CSA. Go away CSA, nobody wants your crappy polls.